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2019 MLB preview and predictions: How Cubs stack up against Reds

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USA TODAY

2019 MLB preview and predictions: How Cubs stack up against Reds

The National League looks as strong as ever, with as many as 12 of the 15 teams planning to contend in 2019.

The Cubs had a quiet winter, transactionally speaking, but almost every other team in the NL bolster their roster this offseason. 

But expectations haven't changed at the corner of Clark and Addison. After a disappointing finish to 2018, Kris Bryant and Co. once again have their sights set on another World Series.

With that, let's take a look at all of the teams that could stand in the way of the Cubs getting back to the Fall Classic:

Cincinnati Reds

2018 record: 67-95, 5th in NL Central

Offseason additions: Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Derek Dietrich, Jose Iglesias, Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Zach Duke, Kyle Farmer, Odrisamer Despaigne, Matt Bowman, Anthony Bass

Offseason departures: Homer Bailey, Billy Hamilton, Matt Harvey, Shed Long, Tanner Rainey, Robby Scott

X-factor: Sonny Gray

The 29-year-old right-hander looks to be in line for the Reds' Opening Day start, which somehow makes all the sense in the world and zero sense at the same time.

Gray might have the highest upside of any pitcher in the Reds rotation and he's certainly a lot more established than up-and-comer Luis Castillo. And with fellow newcomer Alex Wood expected to start the year on the injured list, it's easy to make the case that Gray would get the ball Opening Day.

On the other hand, he's coming off a season in which he posted a 4.90 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with the New York Yankees and was banished to the bullpen by the end of the year. Gray has had an up-and-down career, evidenced clearly by his season-by-season ERA:

2013: 2.67
2014: 3.08
2015: 2.73
2016: 5.69
2017: 3.55
2018: 4.90

He was an All-Star in 2015 and finished 3rd in AL Cy Young voting that same year, but then was a disaster the next season, posting a -0.3 WAR with the A's. 

He's still in his prime and a nice buy-low pickup for the Reds, who needed pitching any way they could get it. A move to the NL should help Gray in that he gets to face the pitcher's spot a couple times a game (until the league adopts, the DH, that is), but he's moving to an extreme hitter's park in Great American Ballpark and the NL is loaded with talent this year across every lineup in the league. 

If Gray can pitch like a front-of-the-rotation arm, the $38 million he's owed over the next four seasons will look like a hell of a bargain. If he can't, that's a hefty salary to pay for a mid-market franchise.

That being said, Gray doesn't have to pitch all that well to be considered a "front-of-the-rotation starter" by Cincinnati's standards. The Reds finished 24th in baseball in ERA last year and were 25th in rotation ERA (5.02). They ranked 29th in starter's ERA in 2017 and have not finished outside the bottom 10 in rotation ERA since 2014 when Johnny Cueto was still in town and Homer Bailey was actually good.

Projected lineup

1. Jesse Winker - LF
2. Joey Votto - 1B
3. Eugenio Suarez - 3B
4. Scooter Gennett - 2B
5. Yasiel Puig - RF
6. Scott Shebler - CF
7. Jose Peraza - SS
8. Tucker Barnhart - C

Projected rotation

1. Sonny Gray
2. Luis Castillo
3. Tanner Roark
4. Anthony DeSclafani
5. Tyler Mahle

Outlook

This is a much, much improved roster. That's not to say the Reds will win 90 games this year or even challenge for the NL Wild-Card, but they likely won't lose 95 games again, either. Realistically, we're talking about a team that will probably hover around .500 this year, but that would be a very welcome sight for fans given they haven't finished even close to a winning record since 2013.

Cincinnati's front office took on a bunch of salary to acquire Puig and Kemp, but also were able to shed some of Bailey's salary in the process and added some much-needed outfield depth and right-handed pop to the lineup. The rotation also has a complete makeover, with solid upgrades in Gray, Roark and Wood. None of the three are expected to contend for the NL Cy Young this year and Roark and Wood are free agents after 2019, but as we went over above, this rotation needed some serious help.

Even before the addition of Puig and Kemp, this Reds team had no trouble putting up some nice numbers on the scoreboard. Votto is one of the best hitters in the game and led the NL in on-base percentage for the third consecutive season last year. His power took a preciptous dip (down to 12 homers and 67 RBI after going for 36 and 100 in 2017), but he makes outs at a ridiculously low rate and sets the table for an underrated middle of the order.

Suarez and Gennett combined for 57 dingers and 196 RBI a year ago and now Puig and Kemp are joining the fray. Dietrich and Iglesias were nice buy-low additions for depth, as Iglesias is one of the best defenders in the game while Dietrich is a lefty bat that can play all over the diamond. 

The Reds also have some nice up-and-comers to be excited about in that lineup, between 24-year-old Jose Peraza and 25-year-old Jesse Winker, plus top prospect Nick Senzel who could force his way to the big leagues very soon. Winker is slated for the leadoff role with his .397 OBP in 471 career MLB plate appearances. Peraza hit .288 with some surprising pop (14 homers, 31 doubles) a year after disappointing with a .259 average and only 18 extra-base hits. Senzel, 23, is a consensus Top 10 prospect who has a career .314/.378/.509 slash line in the minors.

The most underrated area of this Reds roster, however, is the bullpen.

Raisel Iglesias is an elite closer who has blown just 6 saves in 64 chances the last two seasons. Jared Hughes is their top setup guy and Cubs fans should be very familiar with him, since he's pitched his entire 8-year MLB career in the NL Central (first with the Pirates from 2011-16 and then with the Brewers in 2017 before joining the Reds last year). He had a 1.94 ERA last year and sports a 2.69 mark for his career. Veterans David Hernandez and Duke are solid and former top prospect Amir Garrett could be ascending. Even failed starters Michael Lorenzen and Matt Wisler are OK options for first-year manager David Bell.

The Cubs play the Reds 19 times this year and went just 11-8 against their divisional rival last year when they were a 95-loss team. It will be a tougher road for the Cubs to turn in even the same 11-8 record this year and don't be surprised if the Reds finish with better team-wide offensive numbers than the Cubs, even with a healthy Kris Bryant.

Ultimately, the Reds probably don't have enough good starting pitching or overall depth to be legit contenders in the division, but crazier things have happened in this game. From a Cubs' perspective, the Reds potentially flirting with a .500 record is just more fuel to the fire that Joe Maddon's squad has their work cut out for them in a year of reckoning.

Prediction: 5th in NL Central

All 2019 previews & predictions

San Francisco Giants
Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
Washington Nationals
Cincinnati Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals

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Two of the Cubs' best prospects made Keith Law's annual Top 100 list

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USA Today

Two of the Cubs' best prospects made Keith Law's annual Top 100 list

For those who follow such things, Keith Law's yearly Top 100 prospect rankings is always a highly anticipated read. What would baseball twitter even do with their time if they couldn't spend it vocally disagreeing with subjective lists? Having a handful of Top 100 guys is always a shot in the arm for franchises that maybe aren't doing a whole lot of winning at the major league level; when you know you're not winning a World Series, the debuts of these prospects are high points of the summer. 

There wasn't a whole lot of Cubs' representation this season, which isn't a surprise by any means. Only guys two made Law's list: Brennen Davis at 55, and Brailyn Marquez at 80.  

Law claims Davis has the highest upside of any Cubs' prospect, but isn't necessarily close to a debut: 

Davis is lanky and has barely begun to fill out, so there’s likely to be more power to come, while he’s already shown he can manage at-bats and use the middle of the field to get himself on base. Despite his 6′4″ frame he already has a very balanced swing, and the Cubs will just have to tighten up some mechanical things since he’s got such long levers. A former shortstop, he’s adapted quickly to center field; he projects to stay there and add value with his range. 

He also loves Marquez's stuff – comparing it to Aroldis Chapman's – and says it's the reason why he's team's best pitching prospect since Dylan Cease. You can see the entire rankings, which go pretty in-depth, right here. 

Brandon Morrow sidelined with upper chest strain, no timetable for return

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USA TODAY

Brandon Morrow sidelined with upper chest strain, no timetable for return

Brandon Morrow’s comeback attempt has hit a bump in the road.

Morrow, the Cubs reliever and former closer, has what the club is calling a “mild right upper chest strain,” according to MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. Bastian added Morrow felt the strain in his last bullpen session and there is no clear timeline for his return.

The strain is the latest ailment to sideline the oft-injured Morrow, who hasn't pitched since July 2018 due to a series of arm troubles. The 35-year-old has undergone two elbow surgeries since then (November 2018, September 2019) before becoming a free agent this winter. He rejoined the Cubs on a minor-league deal.

Morrow entered camp optimistic the latest procedure did the trick to get his elbow healthy. The Cubs have been easing him into action — the right-hander is throwing one bullpen every four days. Morrow said earlier this month he’s experienced some aches and pains but attributed those to being part of the rehab process.

Morrow is listed as day-to-day, according to Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. But considering his injury history — and the fact he was already unlikely to crack the Opening Day roster —  the Cubs will proceed with extreme caution. There's no need to expedite his return, mild strain or not.

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