Predicting who wins 2020 AL/NL Cy Young, MVP and more

Share

It’s been said over and over again, but the 2020 MLB season was truly like no other. As such, the race for the league’s most prestigious awards are unlike any we’ve seen, in at least recent memory.With the small 60-game sample size, there are a handful of worthy candidates in each award race. Some races are more obvious than others, the most extreme example being the contrast in the Cy Young fields.If this were a 162-game season, odds are a chunk of these candidates would fall out of the competition. But 2020 was no normal year, so let’s embrace the chaos.Here’s one crack at predicting who will take home the hardware after the World Series finishes. As a reminder, voters cast their ballots after the regular season. Playoff performance is not part of a player’s candidacy.

8 photos
1/8

1. Trevor Bauer (11 starts, 73 IP, 5-4, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 100 K/17 BB)
2. Yu Darvish (12 starts, 76 IP, 8-3, 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 93 K/14 BB)
3. Dinelson Lamet (12 starts, 69 IP, 3-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 93 K/20 BB)

Among NL starters, Bauer finished first in ERA, WHIP and opponent’s average (.159). He ranked second in strikeouts, third in fWAR (2.5) and fifth in bWAR (2.7). It’s hard to see him get knocked for his record, even in a 60-game season where every win mattered.

Darvish looked like the favorite at one point in September and is the likely runner-up. He finished first among NL starters in fWAR (3.0), second in ERA and threw 10 quality starts in 12 tries. Lamet had a stellar season, though he averaged a tick under six innings per start.

Runners-up: Darvish, Lamet, Jacob deGrom, Max Fried, Clayton Kershaw, Corbin Burnes

2/8

1. Shane Bieber (12 starts, 77 1/3 IP, 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122 K/21 BB)

This is a race for second place. Bieber was the best pitcher in baseball this season and will be a runaway winner. Cleveland’s ace finished tied for first in MLB in wins, standing alone at No. 1 in ERA, FIP (2.07), strikeouts, and fWAR and bWAR (3.2) among pitchers.

Kenta Maeda is the likely runner-up here. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts and led MLB in WHIP (0.75). He finished second in fWAR (2.1) among AL pitchers. 

Runners-up: Maeda, Gerrit Cole, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dylan Bundy, Lance Lynn, Dallas Keuchel, Lucas Giolito, Zack Greinke

3/8

1. Freddie Freeman (60 games 3.4 fWAR, 187 wRC+, .341/.462/.640, 13 HR, 53 RBIs)
2. Mookie Betts (55 games, 3.0 fWAR, 149 wRC+, .292/.366/.562, 16 HR, 39 RBIs)
3. Manny Machado (60 games, 2.6 fWAR, 148 wRC+ .304/.370/.580, 16 HR, 47 RBIs)

There’s room for debate in this race, though it should be a relatively easy decision for voters.

Freeman tied for first in MLB in fWAR. He finished second in the NL to Juan Soto in average, OBP, slugging percentage and wRC+.

However, the young Nationals star only played in 47 games after going through COVID-19 protocol early in the season. If Soto played in more games, he'd likely be the top choice.

Betts has impressive numbers across the board and his WAR totals speak to his value (third in MLB in fWAR, first in bWAR). Fernando Tatis Jr. holds the better fWAR than Machado, but the latter has the edge in average, OBP and slugging percentage.

Runners-up: Betts, Machado, Soto, Tatis, Mike Yastrzemski, Marcell Ozuna

4/8

1. José Abreu (60 games, 2.6 fWAR, .317/.370/.617, 19 HR, 60 RBIs)
2. José Ramírez (58 games, 3.4 fWAR, .292/.386/.607, 17 HR, 46 RBIs)
3. D.J. Lemahieu (50 games, 2.5 fWAR, .364/.421/.590, 10 HR, 27 RBIs)

Ramírez had a tremendous September (.366, 10 HR, 24 RBIs, 1.294 OPS) that catapulted him atop the fWAR leaderboard and should get him some first-place votes. Even so, Abreu’s total body of work makes him the most deserving here.

Abreu played in all 60 games, leading MLB in RBIs and the AL in slugging percentage. He was second in MLB in home runs and fourth in the AL in batting average, trailing three players who each appeared in 10 or more fewer games.

Lemahieu probably won’t get first-place tallies, though he should finish high in the voting after winning the AL batting title and leading AL hitters in bWAR (2.9).

Runners-up: Ramírez, Lemahieu, Anthony Rendon, Tim Anderson, Mike Trout, Bieber, Brandon Lowe, Nelson Cruz

5/8

1. Jake Cronenworth (54 games, 1.4 fWAR, .285/.354/.477, 4 HR, 20 RBIs)
2. Alec Bohm (44 games, 1.2 fWAR, .338/.400/.481, 4 HR, 23 RBIs)
3. Tony Gonsolin (9 games/8 starts, 1.8 fWAR, 2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 46 K/7 BB)

Bohm ranked fifth among NL rookies in fWAR and put up great numbers. He actually had more hits than Cronenworth, but Cronenworth played a huge role in the Padres making the postseason for the first time since 2006, playing first base, second, third and shortstop. 

Gonsolin was lights out for the Dodgers. Devin Williams will be knocked because he's a reliever in a short season, but he was one of the best in the game this year. He sported a 0.33 ERA in 27 innings, striking out 53. He finished third among rookie pitchers with a 1.4 fWAR

Runners-up: Bohm, Gonsolin, Williams, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Kwang-hyun Kim, Sixto Sánchez 

6/8

1. Kyle Lewis: 58 games, 1.7 fWAR, .262/.364/.437, 11 HR, 28 RBIs
2. Luis Robert: 56 games, 1.5 fWAR, .233/.302/.436, 11 HR, 31 RBIs
3. Willi Castro: 36 games, 1.3 fWAR, .349/.381/.550, 6 HR, 24 RBIs

This was a two-man race between Lewis and Robert until Robert slumped mightily in September (.136, .409 OPS in 23 games). And if this were a 162-game season, he’d have plenty of time to resurface in the race.

Lewis also slumped in September (.147, .550 OPS in 22 games) but finished with respectable numbers, all while leading AL rookies in fWAR. 

Castro came on strong after debuting midseason, but he’ll be knocked for his lesser sample size in the short season. Nevertheless, his numbers could be enough to finish in second place.

Runners-up: Robert, Castro, Justus Sheffield, Ryan Mountcastle, Sean Murphy

7/8

1. Don Mattingly (31-29)
2. Jayce Tingler (37-23)
3. Mike Shildt (30-28)

Miami was hit hard by a COVID-19 outbreak in the season’s opening weekend, sidelining them for eight days after 18 players tested positive for the virus. All said, Miami used 61 players this season, 18 of which made their MLB debuts. In total, they made a whopping 174 roster moves.

Mattingly’s group overcame a lot of adversity to finish second in the NL East, something few expected entering the season. They made their first postseason appearance since 2003, improving to 7-0 all-time in playoff series before losing to the Braves in the NLDS.

Again, postseason performance isn’t a factor in award voting, but the fact this group got there at all is a testament to the job Mattingly did.

Tingler led the Padres to their first playoff berth since 2006, and Shildt led the Cardinals there after a COVID-19 outbreak resulted in a plethora of doubleheaders being scheduled.

Runners-up: Tingler, Shildt, David Ross, David Bell

8/8

1. Kevin Cash (40-20)
2. Rick Renteria (35-25)
3. Charlie Montoyo (32-28)

The Yankees have one of the game’s highest payrolls and the Rays one of the lowest, but that didn’t matter this season. Cash led Tampa Bay to its first division crown in 10 years, ahead of the preseason World Series favorite New York.

To be fair, the Yankees dealt with a ton of injuries this season. However, it wasn’t like the Rays squeaked by their rivals to win the AL East. Tampa Bay finished with the best record in the AL and second-best in MLB, behind the 43-win Dodgers.

Renteria and the White Sox parted ways after the season, but he deserves a ton of credit for leading the Sox to their first playoff berth since 2008. Montoyo's Blue Jays made the playoffs for the first time since 2016, all while their home games were displaced to Buffalo.

Runners-up: Renteria, Montoyo, Dusty Baker, Bob Melvin

Contact Us