/clears throat
/turns on bullhorn
/deeply inhales:
MOORRREEEEEEE PROJECTIONNNSSSSS
It will never end, friends. Here we are, a good week or so after PECOTA came through and stomped all over everyone's optimism, and the timing could *not* be better. PECOTA was old news; the jokes were stale. Now our second wind is here, ready to fuel us all into rage tweeting at a computer, from a computer, with renewed purpose. We have been given a gift, and there are still three whole corners of the Cubs' workout guide available and looking to rent. I give you: FanGraphs' ZiPS Projections for the 2019 Cubs.
Now, I cannot say I'd blame you if you hard-passed the hell out of these. Getting Mad Online seems exhausting, and pointing out that the games are played on the field is not actually something anyone needs clarification on. They are, in the end, just predictions. While they may be based in a smarter reality than your buddy's 3-beer rant about how honestly Mike Trout in a Cubs uniform isn't THAT unrealistic, they are both just predictions. No one knows what's going to happen. Sports!
So what's worth noting about the Cubs' ZiPS projections? A bunch! Let's take a look:
1. ZiPS thinks Kris Bryant is back, kinda
Here's what FanGraphs sees for Bryant this year: .270/.365/.493 with a 123 OPS+ and 28 dingers - all good for a 4.5 WAR. That'd be the 4th-highest WAR of his 5-year career, which, on the surface, doesn't look great. WAR is not without flaws though, and some of Bryant's other projections paint a rosier picture. A .222 ISO is encouraging - last year, some hitters with a similar ISO included Anthony Rendon, Edwin Encarnacion, and Kyle Schwarber. He's projected to post a career-low in walks and get close to his career-high in strikeouts, so there's a red flag. With all that said, if there's one player the ZiPS might swing-and-miss on (ha!), it's Bryant; his injury-plagued 2018 makes forecasting trickier.
MLB
2. Javy Baez's power is for real?
I guess predicting another 30 home run season for Baez shouldn't be that wild, but considering he'd only ever hit 20 once before last year, it feels notable that FanGraphs is in on his power. On a team with Bryant, Schwarber, and Anthony Rizzo, it's Baez that's predicted to be the Cubs' preeminent power hitter. Strangely enough, Baez is only projected to be a 3-win player, and worth almost two whole wins less than he was last season. WAR has a hard time with players who are uber-reliable at several positions, but this writer isn't quite sure how someone can be the team's best hitter and fielder yet not their most valuable position player. WAR, man. It makes sense until it doesn't.
3. The rotation might be in real trouble
More than any other offseason narrative, this one seems to be where Cubs fans and baseball analysts butt heads most often.
Most Fans: Jon Lester doesn't need to prove anything to anyone, a change of scenery is giving Cole Hamels new life, Yu Darvish is finally healthy and motivated, and Jose Quintana is underrated at this point.
Most Analysts: All 4 are on the wrong side of 30, with peripherals headed in the wrong direction. Maybe one or two reaches their ceiling again, but all 4?
As is usually the case in baseball, reality probably falls somewhere in the middle. Terrific insight, I know. Early reports from camp are bullish on Darvish, and he seems like the obvious choice for a bounceback year. FanGraphs disagrees with that, pointing to Quintana (3.75 FIP, 3.6 WAR) as the Cubs sneaky-good starter while being rather gloomy about Darvish's 2019 (3.82 FIP, 2.5 WAR).
The bigger red flag is the pitching staffs' production as a whole. All 5 starters are projected to have ERAs close to 4 -it's hard to feel much outside of apathy when perusing their numbers. The NL might be stupid good this year, so can the Cubs cut it with merely good-but-not-great pitching? TUNE IN
4. The bullpen has potential?
The Cubs deserve the flack they get for not spending this offseason. That's not to say that they should have signed Bryce Harper -- though they should have signed Bryce Harper -- but it's not like they've been making other moves left and right either. However, the moves they did make in the bullpen are ... rather encouraging?
They got Brad Brach on a one-year deal and FanGraphs loves him. We might be looking back in July and wondering why we didn't pay more attention to the Xavier Cedeno signing. FanGraphs loves him too. As Chris Kamka pointed out, both are great candidates to be specialists, as Brach destroys righties just like Cedeno destroys lefties. They may be versatile enough to handle expanded roles, but if Maddon wants to keep them in those roles, it wouldn't be the worst idea. Pedro Strop is a bonafide stud and it's not unrealistic to think the Cubs have a ground ball wizard in Brandon Kintzler, either. There's reason to believe: of all 5 NL Central bullpens, FanGraphs ranks the Cubs (a very, very close) 2nd. Bullpen management is nothing more than an informed dice roll, but the Cubs' late-inning arms might surprise people.
5. Miscellaneous tidbits that I couldn't blend into a narrative
- Kris Bryant's closest current comp is Ryan Zimmerman
- Jason Heyward's predicted to be a 2-win player once again. The contract is what it is, but after the first two seasons, anything is an improvement.
- Anthony Rizzo is predicted to slash .277/.383/.492 and be worth 4 wins. This is not news, but his consistent excellence at the plate probably deserves more recognition than it gets.
- Ian Happ, Victor Caratini, and Daniel Descalso are projected as the worst defenders of Cubs players who will get semi-consistent ABs.
- David Bote and Wilson Contreras are projected to hit the same number of dingers (14). That'd more than double Bote's total from 2018 and would be the 2nd-best season of Contreras' career.
- Wynton Bernard is pegged to lead the Cubs in steals this season, with 21. Javy Baez is the only starter with more than 10 projected steals. Basically the Cubs aren't going to steal bases.
- Ben Zobrist's closest current comp is Wade Boggs.