6 Cubs players who are postseason X-factors
Need a plus defender in the later innings? How about a run in a tight game? Hamilton brings both to the Cubs, and his elite speed makes him a major weapon off David Ross’ bench.
“The kind that wins you a World Series,” Ross said of the type of weapon Hamilton is. “That’s the potential he has.”
An obvious example is Dave Roberts stealing second base in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, then scoring to tie the game, a Red Sox win. Boston came back to win that series (after trailing 3-0) and the Fall Classic.
And even if Hamilton doesn’t swipe a bag, his presence on the bases alone is enough of a distraction to affect a pitcher.
Happ, who Ross anointed one of his X-factors before the season, carried the Cubs offense for much of the regular season before a late-season slide. Through Sept. 5, he was hitting .310/.418/.674 with 12 home runs. His walk (14.9 percent) and strikeout (24.7 percent) rates were solid.
But over his final 17 games, Happ hit .159/.247/.188 with no home runs, striking out 32.5 percent of the time while walking less (9.1 percent rate).
The Cubs can’t afford each of Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javy Báez, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber to slump in October, as they did in spurts this season. And even if those big names get back to their norms offensively, Happ turning things around would make this lineup dangerous.
Kimbrel got off to a rocky start this season. What we’ve seen from him over the last month is the stuff of a seven-time All-Star.
Kimbrel allowed no runs in eight September outings, striking out 13 while walking none in 7 1/3 innings. He’s been nearly as good dating back to Aug. 14 (14 outings, 1.42 ERA, 26 K, 7 BB).
Ross hasn’t named a closer this season, and that formula has worked with Kimbrel and Jeremy Jeffress. After his finish to the season, Kimbrel is a closing option in October, all while Ross has the flexibility to use him and Jeffress in a variety of spots.
Lester went through some tough stretches this season and finished with a 5.16 ERA in 12 starts. But he was trending upward (1.06 ERA in three starts from Sept. 11-22) before his final outing, when he allowed seven earned runs against the White Sox, partially due to defensive miscues.
Still, is anyone going to bet against a guy who elevates his game in October? Lester’s career ERA in the postseason (2.51) is more than a run better than in regular season (3.60).
“I think it actually raises his game,” Ross said of Lester and the postseason. “As many times as I’ve seen him on that stage, I think it makes him better, where I don’t know that I could say that about a lot of people that I’ve played with in those environments.”
With no in-series off days before the World Series, Lester’s number will be called. In fact, he’ll start Game 3 of the Cubs’ first-round series against Miami, if the game proves necessary.
If not, and the Cubs advance, we’ll see him in the NLDS, and it would be foolish to doubt the veteran lefty.
Alzolay’s performance down the stretch provided a glimpse of what he brings to the Cubs pitching staff this postseason.
Alzolay, who won’t start against Miami, offers Ross an effective innings eater who can bridge games to high-leverage arms Kimbrel and Jeffress. And should the Cubs advance to the NLDS (and even NLCS) he’s a legitimate starting option.
On Sept. 22, Alzolay piggybacked José Quintana out of the bullpen in Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old threw four innings of two-hit ball, allowing a run while striking out seven. Five days later, he started against the White Sox, throwing five innings of two-hit, one-run ball, striking out eight — a career-high.
Whether Ross trusts the rookie to start a big game is to be seen. His name is at least in the conversation after how he finished the regular season.
Chatwood won't pitch in the Wild Card round, and the NLDS and even NLCS are no guarantees. The right-hander hasn’t pitched since late August with a forearm strain, though he threw a bullpen the final weekend of the regular season.
But just imagine, if he’s healthy, what he’d bring to the Cubs bullpen.
Chatwood was largely a reliever in 2019, save a few spot starts, after an ineffective 2018 in the rotation. With shorter outings, he was able to dial up his four-seam fastball velocity, averaging a career best 96.1 mph while touching 98.
With Rowan Wick sidelined with an oblique injury, the Cubs don’t have many flamethrowers in their ‘pen, outside of Kimbrel. That isn’t to say velocity is everything, but sometimes you need a strikeout most in a big spot.
If Chatwood can come back healthy, he’d add a true power arm to a Cubs bullpen that excelled in September (No. 2 in ERA in MLB)
