Cubs 2020 roster outlook: Lineup adjustment could be key to Jason Heyward’s success

Each day in March, NBC Sports Chicago is previewing one player from the Cubs’ expected 2020 Opening Day roster. Next up is right fielder Jason Heyward.

2019 recap

Heyward played his traditional excellent defense in right field, tallying 7 Outs Above Average (No. 2 in MLB) and 6 Defensive Runs Saved (No. 6 in MLB, minimum 600 innings). He played center full-time after the Cubs acquired Nick Castellanos, occasionally moving to right late in games to maximize the club’s defense.

A month-long stint leading off put a damper on what was shaping up to be Heyward’s finest offensive season in a Cubs uniform. The 30-year-old led off 25 times from Aug. 1-Sept. 2, hitting .147/.277/.295 with a 55 wRC+. His numbers before and after that stretch:

March 28-July 31: 100 games/93 starts, .280/.356/.460, 110 wRC+, 10.5 BB%, 19.3 K%

Sept. 3-Sept. 29: 20 games/19 starts, .250/.372/.453, 117 wRC+ 15.4 BB%, 15.4 K%

The Cubs went 16-12 last August — their most wins in a single month in 2019. Heyward’s a team-first guy and accepted the challenge of leading off, but the numbers show he’s better when hitting elsewhere in the order.

Expectations for this season’s role

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David Ross said last month he’s going to keep Heyward in right field as much as possible this season. The five-time Gold Glove Award winner split his time almost equally between center (603 1/3 innings) and right (618 2/3) last season.

Ross plans to alternate righties and lefties in the lineup. With Kris Bryant tabbed as the Cubs’ newest leadoff man, Heyward will hit sixth:

Bryant
Anthony Rizzo
Javier Báez
Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras
Heyward

2020 outlook

The Cubs aren’t planning a right field platoon, but Heyward will likely sit versus some lefty starting pitchers in favor of Steven Souza Jr. He can always enter games late for defensive purposes but sitting him in unfavorable matchups will put him in the best possible position to succeed.

Heyward career

Vs. RHP: .273/.358/.440, 118 wRC+, 11.0 BB%, 15.4 K%
Vs. LHP: .233/.304/.343, 79 wRC+, 8.4 BB%, 22.1 K%

Heyward hit .251/.343/.429 with 21 homers, 62 RBIs and a 101 wRC+ in 2019 — all personal bests (average aside) during his four seasons on the North Side. There’s no telling if those figures would have been higher, had he not led off for a month.

Nevertheless, Heyward has improved significantly after struggling offensively early in his Cubs career. Replicating his March-July numbers throughout 2020 will lengthen a Cubs lineup with a formidable 1-5.