Early Cubs 2021 roster projection
As the Cubs look to “thread the needle” this offseason, according to Theo Epstein, of retooling the roster while remaining competitive, we could see several core pieces on the move as they lower payroll following a season of revenue losses and entering an uncertain financial period in 2021.Eight Cubs officially became free agents last week, and the club already made several decisions on 2021 contract options. When other potential moves occur is anyone’s guess; in a normal financial climate last winter, the Cubs’ biggest moves didn’t happen until January and February, when they signed Jeremy Jeffress, Jason Kipnis and Steven Souza.A lot can happen between now and Opening Day. Competitive uncertainties, such as if the National League will have a DH, remain. None of this takes into account if the Cubs are able to get major league value in return in potential trades. In the meantime, here’s an early projection of the 2021 roster, with two spots left open.
Anthony Rizzo
Nico Hoerner
David Bote
Javier Báez
Ildemaro Vargas
Current third baseman and three-time All-Star Kris Bryant is noticeably absent here. The 28-year-old former MVP carries the highest salary of any core position player and is under team control through 2021. Next season, he’s projected to make somewhere in the range of his $18.6 million 2020 salary.
Under the current climate, that salary may not fit anymore. The Cubs thought there might be a market at the 2020 trade deadline for their core pieces, but that was wiped out by the 60-game season amid COVID-19. There’s no current indication a contract extension will appear.
Trading Bryant, combined with money falling off the books, could allow the Cubs to add the type of contact bat their lineup needs, perhaps old friend Tommy La Stella or former Indians infielder César Hernández — who’s hit .280/.357/.396 since 2016. Another old friend, DJ LeMahieu, is a dream option.
The Cubs recently picked up Rizzo’s $16.5 million option for 2021 and were working on an extension with Báez, who’s entering his final year of club control, before MLB’s COVID-19 shutdown. Hoerner is entering his first true full season, while Bote is signed through 2026 (club options in 2025-26). He’ll only make $1 million in 2021. Vargas is a pre-arbitration player.
Whether the Cubs trade Bryant or not, they’ll likely look to add a veteran infielder, as they did in 2020 with Kipnis. In fact, Kipnis could fit on a similar low-cost deal he signed for 2020. The local product wasn’t able to play in front of friends and family due to the pandemic season.
Max Schrock, recently claimed off waivers from the Cardinals, is an internal bench option.
Ian Happ
Jason Heyward
José Martínez
Cameron Maybin
Happ was an early MVP candidate in the shortened season, and although his numbers dipped in September, he’s taken strides the past two seasons, cutting his strikeout totals while maintaining his patient approach. He can play center and left field and has earned a regular role.
Happ, entering his first year of arbitration, and Heyward are under team control through 2023. Heyward had his finest offensive season with the Cubs in 2020, is still an elite defender — he was a Gold Glove finalist again this season — and is a clubhouse leader.
Kyle Schwarber is under team control through 2021 and projected to make somewhere around his $7.01 million 2020 salary next season. He struggled in the short season after a stellar 2019 second half and, outside of Bryant, seems to be the most likely core player not to return.
Depending on the Cubs’ financial picture, Schwarber might be a non-tender candidate (Dec. 2 deadline). Likewise, Albert Almora Jr. — who lost playing time to Happ and was optioned to the alternate site this summer — could be a change-of-scenery and non-tender candidate.
Martínez went 0-for-21 with the Cubs and has defensive limitations. He’d fit as a DH option (if it returns to the NL in '21) and bat off the bench, but again, he’s another potential non-tender entering his second year of arbitration.
Maybin was a solid trade deadline pickup, adding a veteran bat and clubhouse presence to the mix. Considering the Cubs’ financial picture and need for one, if not two outfield bats, a reunion makes sense. Billy Hamilton’s speed and defense are major weapons; the Cubs need offense more.
Willson Contreras
Victor Caratini
Between Contreras and Caratini, as well as top prospect Miguel Amaya and prospects Ethan Hearn and Ronnier Quintero, catching is an organizational position of strength. The Cubs could tap into that by dealing Contreras, their most valuable trade chip as a two-time All-Star and 2020 Gold Glove finalist with two years of club control.
Contreras is one of the game’s best offensive catchers and has improved his framing significantly, adding to his big arm and athleticism behind the plate. Teams who miss out on free agent J.T. Realmuto could come knocking for Contreras.
Caratini is a switch-hitting, contact bat, a change of pace from the Cubs’ powerful lineup. He’s also the personal catcher to 2020 NL Cy Young Award finalist Yu Darvish.
Yu Darvish
Kyle Hendricks
Adbert Alzolay
Alec Mills
Jon Lester
The Cubs rotation next season starts with Darvish and Hendricks, both of whom Epstein highlighted at his end-of-season press conference while looking ahead to the 2021 rotation.
“We’re fortunate to have two top starting pitchers on good contracts, under control for a while, that any team would love to start a rotation with in Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks,” Epstein said.
Behind those two, Epstein said the Cubs were pleased with what Mills and Alzolay did in 2020 and the latter is “primed” to slide into the 2021 rotation. That leaves one vacancy.
The Cubs bought out Lester’s 2021 option for $10 million last week. Both sides have expressed interest in a reunion. A low-cost, incentive-laden deal makes sense. Epstein noted they’ll still need to add depth from outside of the organization.
Former Cubs Jake Arrieta, Cole Hamels and Drew Smyly are all available and possibly for modest, short-term contracts. After a solid 2020 in San Francisco, Smyly may command more than Arrieta, a former Cy Young winner, and Hamels, a four-time All-Star.
Craig Kimbrel
Rowan Wick
Ryan Tepera
Kyle Ryan
Jason Adam
Duane Underwood Jr.
Brad Wieck
Dan Winkler
Kimbrel worked through early woes to post a 1.42 ERA in his final 14 outings, walking seven compared to 26 strikeouts. He didn’t allow a run or walk in September, with a 15.95 K/9.
Kimbrel pitched in a flex late-inning role this season, with Jeremy Jeffress leading the team in saves. Jeffress still fits here, but he’s likely to get more money on the open market. The Cubs need a closer, and they may have a hard time shedding Kimbrel’s $16 million 2021 salary.
From there, Wick is a steady setup option, Tepera was good in a number of roles in 2020, and Adam and Underwood Jr. emerged as reliable bullpen arms. Ryan struggled compared to his 2019 season but is one of just two lefties (also Wieck) and doesn’t carry a big arbitration salary projection. Winkler was good in middle relief.
The Cubs have added veteran relievers on low-cost deals the past few offseasons, so this group is very much in flux. Pedro Strop could make sense. He's now a free agent after rejoining the team on a minor league deal in September after the Reds released him.
Internal options include Dillon Maples, James Norwood and Colin Rea, and hard-throwing lefties Brailyn Marquez and Burl Carraway (2020 second-round pick) could be in the mix come spring training.
