10 potential free agent pitching targets for Cubs
Trevor Bauer may not be walking through the Cubs’ doors amid a cost-cutting winter, but the starting rotation is still an area they need to address as we near the (scheduled) start of spring training.And according to NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan, team chairman Tom Ricketts recently allowed president Jed Hoyer some payroll flexibility to address roster needs. They've already agreed to terms with outfielder Joc Pederson on a one-year, $7 million deal.Four Cubs starting pitchers from 2020 are now on different teams in Yu Darvish (Padres), Jon Lester (Nationals), José Quintana (Angels) and Tyler Chatwood (Blue Jays). The Darvish trade did net the Cubs Zach Davies, who will join Kyle Hendricks atop the rotation next season.Adbert Alzolay and Alec Mills are projected to join the rotation, but that still leaves at least one vacancy. Prospects Tyson Miller, Cory Abbott, Justin Steele and Brailyn Marquez are in the pipeline and could contribute in some capacity in 2021.Shelby Miller (minor league deal) and Kohl Stewart (major league deal) are potential depth options, but neither is a guy the Cubs can be sure will be able to give them consistent innings in 2021. Miller has made just 16 starts since 2017. Stewart is a low-risk addition with 17 career appearances — six as a starter.Adding a veteran (or two) would be ideal for the Cubs to help cover the increase in innings from the shortened 2020 season, along with the fact Alzolay and Mills haven’t pitched full 162-game seasons in the big leagues yetThe Cubs will be in the market for buy-low free agents with upside. Here’s a look at 10 potential targets:
Anderson, 33, had a down 2020 in Toronto. He started the season on the injured list with a right oblique strain and made 10 appearances (seven starts) after returning, finishing with a 7.22 ERA and 1.634 WHIP — each career worsts by a wide margin.
However, the Cubs got an up-close look at the right-hander during his four seasons in Milwaukee (2016-19), where he fared much better. Anderson made 112 starts with the Brewers, including 30+ two times, with a 3.83 ERA and 1.231 WHIP.
Anderson allowed 11 home runs in just 33 2/3 innings last season, but his walk (6.5 percent) and strikeout (24.7) rates were good. If his market is reasonable for the Cubs — his 2020 pre-prorated salary was $8.5 million — he could provide them with a durable veteran arm.
Archer, a former Cubs prospect, is a well-respected veteran who’s been slowed by injury in recent seasons. A two-time All-Star with Tampa Bay (2015, ’17), the 32-year-old right-hander struggled after a trade to the Pirates in 2018.
In 33 starts with the Pirates, Archer posted a 4.92 ERA. He missed the final month of 2019 with right shoulder inflammation and all of 2020 after undergoing surgery to relieve symptoms of thoracic outlet syndrome.
Pittsburgh declined Archer’s $11 million option for 2021, but he’s expected to be ready for spring training. If the Cubs trust his medicals, he’s an interesting buy-low candidate as one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers of recent memory.
The Cubs didn’t reunite with Lester this offseason, so how about one of the other aces from their 2016 championship team? Arrieta, 35 in March, is a free agent again following three up-and-down seasons in Philadelphia, and the Cubs are interested, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.
In 64 starts the past three seasons, Arrieta posted a 4.36 ERA and 1.387 WHIP. He averaged less than six starts over that span, but the Cubs know him to be a competitive pitcher.
Arrieta dealt with injuries with the Phillies, including a bone spur in his right elbow he underwent surgery for in 2019, missing the final two months. He also missed the final two weeks of 2020 with a right hamstring strain, but is now healthy, Rogers reports.
Arrieta may not be a Cy Young contender anymore, but he enjoyed stretches of success in Philadelphia. He'd give the Cubs another experienced rotation arm.
Foltynewicz was an All-Star with the Braves in 2018, when he made 31 starts and turned in a 2.85 ERA. He’s made just 22 starts since (4.86 ERA), getting demoted to Triple-A in June 2019 and designated for assignment last July.
Foltynewicz’ velocity was noticeably down last season, dating back to summer camp. His four-seam fastball averaged 91 mph in his lone outing after averaging 96 mph in 2018 and 95 mph in 2019.
What caused Foltynewicz’ velocity decline is uncertain, but he’s worth a look as a potential reclamation project. The Illinois native is still just 29 years old and finished 2019 on a high note after returning from Triple-A. In those ensuing 10 starts, he delivered a 2.65 ERA in 57 2/3 innings, walking 17 compared to 55 strikeouts.
If Foltynewicz’ velocity returns closer to its 2019 level — he sat 90-92 in a workout recently, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman — he could provide the Cubs rotation a different look from the soft-tossing Hendricks, Davies and Mills.
Leake is well acquainted with the NL Central, pitching for the Reds from 2010-15 and the Cardinals from 2016-17. He’s bounced around in recent seasons, pitching for the Mariners and Diamondbacks.
Leake, who opted out of the 2020 season with Arizona, has proven durable throughout his career, making 30+ starts each season from 2012-19. He pitches to contact and doesn’t walk many batters (career 1.98 BB/9).
Arizona declined Leake’s 2021 option worth $18 million in October and he’s in line for a smaller salary this time around. Depending on what his market bears, the 33-year-old could be a solid one-year pickup for the back of the Cubs rotation.
The last two seasons have been some of the worst in Porcello’s career (44 starts, 5.55 ERA, 1.423 WHIP with Red Sox and Mets) but he’s still just 32 and was the AL Cy Young Award winner in 2016. And within his 2020 numbers are signs he’ll bounce back in 2021.
Porcello finished 2020 with a 5.64 ERA (career-worst) and 1.508 WHIP (second-worst) in 12 starts. However, he struck out 54 compared to 15 walks (good) and his peripherals indicate he experienced some bad luck (3.33 FIP, .373 BABIP).
Porcello’s market could be fair for the Cubs and he could be a serviceable back-end starter, if his numbers even out.
Another potential reclamation project, Rodón’s career has hit some bumps in recent seasons as he’s dealt with various arm injuries. The No. 3 overall pick in 2014 has made just 41 starts since 2017, undergoing Tommy John surgery after seven outings in 2019.
Rodón, whom the White Sox non-tendered in December, is still just 28 years old. He’s left-handed — the Cubs have no lefties in their rotation currently — and he’s been a quality starter when healthy.
In 86 games (83 starts) from 2015-18, Rodón delivered a combined 4.01 ERA and 1.372 WHIP. His medicals will be important, but the Cubs appear to have some level of interest as they search for starting pitching. They planned to watch Rodón throw recently, according to WSCR’s Bruce Levine.
UPDATE: Rodón is headed back to the White Sox, per multiple reports.
While we’re talking about potential Cubs reunions, how about Samardzija, their ace pre-2015? Levine reports the Cubs are interested in the 36-year-old right-hander.
The Cubs traded Samardzija to Oakland ahead of the 2014 trade deadline, and he signed with the Giants after a 2015 stint with the White Sox.
Samardzija’s numbers were high in a small sample this past season (9.72 ERA — 18 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings) but he was good in 2019. In 32 starts for San Francisco that season, he held a 3.52 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 181 1/3 innings.
Samardzija has always been a durable innings eater and would add experience to a staff with young arms. He could be a weapon out of the bullpen as well, and unlike when he landed a five-year deal in the 2015-16 offseason, he’s in line for a more modest deal this winter.
Another throwback name, the Cubs were interested in trading for Teheran early in his career with the Braves. A two-time All-Star with Atlanta, the right-hander had a down 2020 with the Angels (10.05 ERA, 1.755 WHIP, 10 games/nine starts). He allowed 12 home runs in 31 1/3 innings.
Teheran just turned 30 and has been consistent throughout his career. He made 30 or more starts each season from 2013-19, averaging 191 innings and a 3.64 ERA over that span.
Teheran is a fly ball pitcher, but his walk totals have jumped the past three seasons (4.3 per nine innings). It’ll be interesting to see where that leaves his market, but he could be a valuable back-end starter with mid-rotation upside.
Williams has spent his entire five-season career with the Pirates and has had a tough time against the Cubs (5.67 ERA in 60 1/3 innings). Overall, he holds a career 4.43 ERA and 1.337 WHIP in 106 games — 94 of which came as a starter.
Pittsburgh designated Williams for assignment this past November following a rough 2020. He’s only turning 29 in April and had a fine 2018 season (3.11 ERA, 31 starts).
Perhaps a change of scenery helps the right-hander, who's worth a look as a low-cost, low-risk addition.
UPDATE: The Cubs and Williams have agreed to a one-year deal.
