5 keys to Cubs 2021 success — or demise

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As the Cubs open their National League Central title defense Thursday against the Pirates, it’s a salary-trimmed roster with 18 players in walk years that embarks on what looks like a crapshoot of a season.Will a new-look, softer-tossing rotation perform well enough to provide an unproven bullpen with enough leads on enough days to keep them in the division race for six months?Will a mostly returning lineup bounce back from its two-month team slump during the 2020 pandemic season?Will they get off to at least a good enough start to keep the would-be buyers at the trade deadline at bay?Here are the five keys to how the Cubs will win the division again …Or sink in the worst division in baseball.

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Team president Jed Hoyer has talked about his belief in players’ tendencies to raise performance levels in free agent years — and he’s built a roster to test that theory. None of the 18 Cubs in walk years are more important than former MVP Kris Bryant and former MVP runner-up Javy Báez. Their walk-year bounce-backs will be key to an offensive resurgence that carries the Cubs into the playoffs.

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Báez and Bryant are coming off the worst seasons of their careers, albeit in a strange, short, pandemic season. But their pending free agencies and team’s continued efforts to talk about extensions won’t help their focus as they face the first real uncertainty of their careers regarding their Cubs futures. That’s a recipe for a tough season and a big reason the Cubs will miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons.

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The 2015 NL Cy Young winner is back where everything fell into place in his career, including a heroic role in the Cubs’ historic championship. He’s in a good place, both physically and geographically, for top comfort level and performance as the Cubs’ No. 2 starter — and they’ve never needed that performance more. He’ll be the key to the success of the new-look rotation.

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For all of Arrieta’s past greatness, his most recent stretch, in Philadelphia the last three years, included injuries each season and struggles. He’s 35 now, and his velocity isn’t what it used to be as he relies more on ground balls to get outs. In a rotation full of contact pitchers, that won’t help him or the rotation as much as the Cubs are counting on — which will turn out to be another example of what went wrong for a team that finished with its first losing record since 2014.

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The Cubs landed an unexpectedly high-profile free agent when the left-handed-hitting slugger approached the team to make them a one-year contract offer they couldn’t refuse, in exchange for a chance to play every day, including against left-handed pitchers. A motivated Pederson will return to All-Star form as an everyday player, exceed his career-high of 129 plate appearances against lefties — and even hit them well enough to be a significant boost to the Cubs’ playoff run.

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Pederson has never hit lefties in his career and may not face enough even in a best-case scenario to adequately improve on that career track record. If that means a return to platoon play — as he was limited in Los Angeles — it will not only reduce the impact of the team’s best hitter this spring but won’t do much for his demeanor. Which definitely won’t do much for a team on the fringes in a bad division.

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The Cubs were the only team in baseball last year without a positive COVID-19 test among its players — a key to keeping their season intact and rolling to a division championship. That proven diligence and cohesiveness will serve them well as MLB rolls out its hopes for a full 162 games while vaccination rollouts remain incomplete and the virus remains a threat nationwide.

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MLB has made vaccinations available to all players and staff, with any team reaching an 85-percent vaccination level allowed to back off some safety restrictions. But anecdotal reports around the game already suggest enough pushback to make 85 percent possibly a challenge — including Instagram posts from the wife of new Cubs infielder Eric Sogard. Hoyer stressed he’s encouraging his players and staff to all get the vaccinations but cannot mandate. Lack of shots in the arm could be the shot in the gut to the Cubs playoff chances. 

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The likable infielder earned a starting job for the first time in his career, nailing down the everyday second base spot, which became a big part of the Cubs’ decision to start talented, young Nico Hoerner in the minors. The hard-hitting Bote will take advantage of the opportunity with a breakout year that helps carry the Cubs to big results.

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Bote was one of the Cubs’ best bench hitters in recent years, and that’s where he should have stayed — filling in liberally at second and third. By the time the Cubs figure it out, they’ll be in third place and Sogard will be getting a lot of playing time. Hoerner will finish the season at second, too little, too late.

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