LAS VEGAS — Based on the first few days of the offseason and impressions from agents and MLB team executives at the annual general managers meetings in Las Vegas, a road map for the Cubs’ offseason might be starting to emerge.
Ten observations based on insider chatter and Cubs sources:
1. The Cubs are very interested in Japanese free agent right-hander Koudai Senga — and not just right-fielder Seiya Suzuki, who has begun recruiting the three-time All-Star Nippon Professional Baseball All-Star. Much to the delight of team officials. Senga’s agent told NBC Sports Chicago Monday he plans to talk to the Cubs this week and that his client seeks a big-market club that wants to try to win now. The Yankees are in play, too.
RELATED: Why Cubs might be early favorite for Japanese star Koudai Senga
2. With Senga, expect to hear about his right forearm before the bidding takes off. Forearm tightness put the power pitcher on the injured list in both May and June this year before he finished the season strong. Word is he’s scheduled to see Dallas-area orthopedist Keith Meister when he gets to the U.S. to prove a clean bill of health before meeting with teams.
3. Willson Contreras will be extended a qualifying offer on Thursday when everybody else delivers their QOs to the free agents who get them and not earlier (no matter what sloppy interpretations are out there of reports out of Las Vegas on the imminent move that Cubs president Jed Hoyer said publicly was coming a month ago). Sources say he intends to reject the offer, but that is not expected to happen immediately. Free agents have 10 days to explore their markets before deciding whether to accept a QO.
4. Predictions on the eventual landing place for Contreras is a mixed bag, ranging from the Cardinals, who need to backfill for the retirement of a Hall of Famer (Yadier Molina), to an Astros team that had a deal done the night before the trade deadline on a Contreras-José Urquidy trade before Astros ownership nixed it and the Astros pivoted to Red Sox catcher Christian Vázquez. Of course, that might leave the Red Sox — who also lost DH J.D. Martinez free agency — in need for a certain type of player.
MLB
5. Sources confirm the ESPN report on the nixed Contreras trade, which left the Cubs with no chance to rebuild trade value in talks with other teams over the final hours leading to the deadline and left Contreras twisting in the wind — and to make a second tearful goodbye to fans during the final home game of the season, two months after the first goodbye.
6. Erstwhile Cubs farm director Jared Banner is a craps table man. For what it’s worth. (The Press Box Wag will sit this one out.)
7. The Cubs still expect Codi Heuer, the talented late-inning reliever recovering from March Tommy John surgery, to make a full recovery with his rehab progressing well and on schedule. But he’s taking the more-recommended 14-month timeline to better assure the least complications upon his return, which means he won’t start the season on time. It’s not expected to have a serious impact on the Cubs’ offseason bullpen plans.
8. The Cubs will be involved in the deep end of the big-name shortstop market this winter, but they have no appetite for another Jason Heyward-length contract — and probably not even a contract for a year or two less than his eight-year deal. Especially given the fact that all of the Big 4 free agent shortstops are 28 or older. Look for maybe a five-year offer for Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts. The Cubs are said to be a serious player for Carlos Correa, too, but sources, perhaps obviously, say he’s seeking the lengthiest deal of the group, and that Cubs interest may wane in proportion to the number of years he seeks.
9. Speaking of Heyward, the Cubs informed the respected veteran in August that they intend to release him and eat the $23 million owed on the final year of that deal. That move is expected to be officially made on or around next Tuesday’s deadline for setting 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule 5 draft.
10. The Cubs aren’t exactly close to deep talks yet on extensions for Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner or anybody else. But if Hoyer has his way, extension talks this winter and future winters would begin well in advance of spring training — unlike some of their more high-profile extension talks in the past.
“Don’t hold me to this but I don’t really love negotiating in spring training. The more I do it, the more I think it causes real tension,” said Hoyer, who made it clear he’s not making a hard-and-fast policy change. “Guys want to start the season. I’ve watched many deals fall apart in spring training. I just don’t think it’s a great way to start the season. I think I’d like to push that up a little bit. And if we get it done, great. But [not] doing it in spring training, at least [not] starting the process and trying to end it.”
Hoyer didn’t mention specific players, but face-of-the-franchise veteran Anthony Rizzo cut off talks at the end of spring 2021 after what he considered an insulting offer and was traded to the Yankees a few months later.