Heading into Derby Day at Churchill Downs, Arlington Park director of marketing and communications Howard Sudberry has his favorites. Dortumund (3-1), Carpe Diem (8-1) and American Pharoah (5-2) all stand a good chance at winning the 2015 Kentucky Derby, which will air Saturday on NBC at 3 p.m., but poor posting for one of the horses could be an issue.
"Those, to me, are the three most logical contenders," Sudberry said on SportsTalk Live. "Those are the ones I liked. And I was leaning a little bit toward Carpe Diem; we'll see if he can seize the day out of the two-hole, though, because that is a very difficult post position at Churchill Downs and the Derby with 20 horses in there."
The Derby has a little bit of local flavor this year, as Mubtaahij (20-1) did some of his training at Arlington Racetrack in Illinois. He'll enter the Derby with some solid momentum, as Sudberry points out.
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"He won the Derby out in Dubai, the UAE Derby, and they say that he didn't run against anything over there but I bet somebody in that field could run a little bit, and he won by eight lengths," he said. "He's been training at Arlington, he looks terrific, he's well-bred. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he won the race."
And if you're planning on placing a wager on Saturday, Sudberry notes that there's always a little bit of luck involved with such a busy track.
"When there's a 20-horse field luck plays a big part in it. It could be 25, 30 percent in this race. If they break badly they're in trouble, when they go into the first turn if they get caught wide or they get bumped along the way, anything could happen," he said. "There could be a great horse get beat because of the trip or the route that he has to take."