A pair of advanced statistical projections give Notre Dame between a 9.5 and 12 percent chance of winning 11 or more games this upcoming fall, a number that would get the Irish into contention for the College Football Playoff.
S&P+, developed by SB Nation's Bill Connelly, gives Notre Dame a 9.5 percent chance of winning 11 or more games; while FEI, developed by ESPN/Football Outsiders' Brian Fremeau, gives the Irish a 10 percent chance of winning 11 games and a 2 percent chance of winning 12.
Diving a little deeper into those numbers...
Notre Dame is ranked 13th in preseason S&P+ on the strength of an offense that projects to be one of the best in the country (5th). But Brian VanGorder's inconsistent defense is what's holding back that preseason ranking, with Notre Dame ranking 48th in preseason defensive S&P+. Notre Dame finished last season ranked 10th in S&P+ behind the seventh-best offense and 35th-best defense as rated by that statistic.
S&P+ projects Notre Dame for 8.7 wins against a schedule with three top-25 teams and five top-40 teams (with the team's preseason S&P+ ranking in parentheses):
@ Texas (32)
Nevada (90)
Michigan State (21)
Duke (51)
Syracuse (47)
@ N.C. State (41)
Stanford (16)
Miami (31)
Navy (62)
Army (124)
Virginia Tech (33)
@ USC (9)
While Notre Dame avoids the ACC's five highest-ranked teams (Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, Pitt and North Carolina) home games against Miami and Virginia Tech could be tricky, as well as that early October trip to Raleigh to face a fringy N.C. State side.
This may be encouraging, too: the best defense Notre Dame is projected to face is Michigan State (13), but the Spartans are the only preseason top-20 defense on the Irish schedule.
As for FEI, that system gives Notre Dame a 51 percent or better chance of beating 10 of its 12 opponents. Only in games against Stanford (47.5 percent) and USC (36.9 percent) is a loss more likely than a win.
By FEI, Notre Dame has an 80 percent or better chance of winning these six games: Nevada (90.5), Duke (85.4), Syracuse (84.8), N.C. State (80.1), Miami (84.6) and Army (95.2). FEI gives Notre Dame a 69.7 percent chance of beating Texas to begin the season Sept. 4.