SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Notre Dame put up some gaudy point totals early in the season, but as it turned out, those weren’t sustainable. What the Irish have been able to do over their last three games, though, is on much stronger footing, according to quarterback DeShone Kizer.
Notre Dame scored 30 points against Miami, 27 against Navy and 44 against Army in its last three games (a three-point win, a one-point loss and a 38-point win). But the way Notre Dame’s offense has executed in those three games is what encourages Kizer, who finally appears to have some support around him to alleviate the immense amount of pressure put on him earlier in the season.
The biggest reason why: Three of Notre Dame’s four games in which the offense has averaged five or more yards per carry were against Miami (5.1), Navy (5.1) and Army (6.1). Kizer was asked to do far too much earlier in the season, and while he delivered against the likes of Duke and Syracuse, he cratered against Stanford and was replaced for a stretch by Malik Zaire.
“In the beginning of the season, we put ourselves in positions where we had to throw the ball a lot in the second half, and I think that’s why the emphasis was on our passing game,” Kizer said. “Now, we’re in the position where we’re having a little more success in the beginning of the game, being able to convert on some big third downs which allows us to get some big-time first and second down runs where now, at the end of the season, you can point in any direction and expect some success on both sides of the offense, both running and passing.”
The Navy loss wasn’t due to a poor offensive showing as much as it was 1) another critical special teams mistake and 2) coach Brian Kelly’s decision to kick a field goal down four in the fourth quarter, which led to the Irish not getting the ball back. Notre Dame scored points on five of its six possessions, and while certainly the Irish could’ve executed to better to turn one of its two field goals into a touchdown, it was a largely effective afternoon (think like an unfortunate quality-over-quantity scenario playing out).
By S&P+’s percentile performance ratings, Miami (81 percent) and Army (94 percent) were the third and best offensive games of Notre Dame’s season (Syracuse is second at 82 percent).
“I think in the last couple weeks we’re getting toward that (complete game),” Kizer said. “I can’t say (Army) was our most complete — there definitely were some times in that game where we gotta execute better. I think we executed really well against Navy, and I think we really executed well against Miami. I think we’re headed in the right direction at this time of the year with the rough start that we had.”
While Kizer & Co. are feeling much better about their ability to execute going forward, their final two games represent their two toughest tests of the season. Virginia Tech’s defense ranks 14th in S&P+ and USC’s ranks 16th, both of which are higher than any other Irish opponent (N.C. State and Miami are next at No. 19 and No. 20, respectively).
So either Notre Dame’s offense is peaking at the right time or it’s about to be stopped in its tracks by two excellent defenses. It’s not the only determining factor, but if that pendulum swings toward the latter outcome, it’ll probably mean Notre Dame will wind up missing out on a bowl game.