SOUTH BEND, Ind. — At 1-2, Notre Dame is out of the College Football Playoff race but still needs to win as many games as possible to avoid an ugly regression of a 2016 season. Duke, at least on the surface, looks like a good opportunity for the Irish to cruise Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium.
David Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils are 1-2 with 10 and 11-point losses to Wake Forest and Northwestern. The numbers developed by SB Nation’s Bill Connelly only give Duke a 17.7 percent chance of finishing the season with six or more wins; they’re far more likely to go 3-9 (20 percent), 4-8 (30 percent) or 5-7 (25 percent) by S&P+.
But even with those tepid projections, there are two statistical matchups that look a little worrisome for Notre Dame (explanations of these statistics here):
1. Duke’s efficient passing game vs. Notre Dame’s secondary. The Daniel Jones-led Duke offense ranks 26th in passing success rate, while Notre Dame’s defense ranks 115th in that efficiency-tracking statistic. Duke doesn’t have much of a running game (102nd in success rate, 63rd in IsoPPP) but that hasn’t been the problem for Notre Dame’s defense. Jones can throw it a little bit, and that’ll test an Irish secondary that’s struggled with everything through three games.
2. Duke’s boom-or-bust defense vs. Notre Dame’s efficiency-driving offense. Duke’s defense is prone to explosive plays but ranks 11th in passing efficiency and 29th in rushing efficiency, while Notre Dame’s offense ranks 22nd in passing efficiency and 74th in rushing efficiency. If DeShone Kizer & Co. can beat Duke with efficiency, it’ll take away most of the Blue Devils’ defensive effectiveness, but if not, it’ll require a less-than-explosive Irish offense to try to stretch the field with more frequency than they’ve shown through three games.
Here’s where it’s worth noting that Duke has only scored 27 total points against its two FBS opponents this year, which is largely due to this team struggling to finish drives (3.3 points per trip inside the 40-yard line, 123rd in FBS). And the offenses of Northwestern and Wake Forest aren’t close to matching the talent possessed by Notre Dame’s, which last scored fewer than 28 points in a home game on Oct. 4, 2014 against Stanford.
So it’s fair to expect Notre Dame to win its offense-against-defense matchup. But can its secondary do enough against Duke’s passing offense — which, again, hasn’t exactly resulted in a ton of points — to keep this from being anything but an easy afternoon in South Bend?