Three keys and prediction: Notre Dame – Miami

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1. Get DeShone Kizer back on track. Notre Dame can’t afford a third consecutive sub-optimal game from its star quarterback, who followed his understandingly-ineffective game in Hurricane Matthew at N.C. State with a head-scratching benching in ideal conditions against Stanford. Miami has a good passing defense (13th in S&P+) that will provide a stiff test. The hope here is that Kizer returns from the bye week feeling refreshed, and that translates into the kind of showings he had in Weeks 1-5. But without a successful game from Kizer, Notre Dame will have an awfully difficult time beating Miami. 

2. Pressure Brad Kaaya. While all quarterbacks are, of course, far less effective under pressure, Kaaya’s splits are significant: A 67.5 completion percentage with no pressure and a 32.4 completion percentage under pressure. Miami ranks a mediocre 63d in adjusted sack rate, though Notre Dame’s defense ranks 119th at getting to the quarterback by the same measure. Notre Dame did have some success pressuring Stanford’s quarterbacks two weeks ago, but that was against a surprisingly weak Cardinal offensive line. If Notre Dame can’t make Kaaya uncomfortable on Saturday, he should have no problem picking apart the Irish secondary. 

3. Finally come up with “a play.” Notre Dame’s five losses have all been by eight or fewer points, and in each of them, the Irish have had a chance to win or tie late. Coach Brian Kelly feels like his team is only a play or two short of having beaten Texas, Michigan State, Duke, N.C. State and Stanford a year after making them against lesser opponents like Virginia and Temple. The onus is on Kelly and his coaching staff to get this still young team in better positions to make and execute those critical plays that could start flipping losses to wins. 

Prediction: Miami 27, Notre Dame 23. DeShone Kizer plays better but struggles to finish drives while Miami’s offense rides a second half surge to a comeback win to deal the Irish their sixth loss of the season. 

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