Sports Business

The Daily Line: Week 10 Football Picks

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NBC Sports Chicago

The Daily Line: Week 10 Football Picks

By way of introduction, I am Eric Olson. I played football for Northwestern from 2012- 2016, started over 30 games at Right Tackle, got a Master’s in Predictive Analytics and love to look at football through the eyes of a sports bettor. I will be writing up my weekly NFL, and a few college picks here at NBC Sports Chicago. With the legalization of sports betting in a handful of states already, and possibly growing to others soon, there will be a lot of new interest and increased awareness on the sports betting factors around the games this year.  The best pieces of advice I can give you are: #1 Don’t bet what you can’t afford #2 If it feels too good to be true, it probably is. And #3 If it feels ugly when you place it, good. Other than that, let’s have some fun and hopefully have some success along the way.

YTD record: 24-15 against the spread 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianpolis Colts 11/11 12:00pm CT

Line: Colts -3 
Betting Percentages Split: 53% on Jaguars 
The play: Jaguars +3

There is a very simple philosophy in the NFL that simply works when handicapping games. Buy low, sell high. If you blindly bet against teams that had overachieving performances the previous week and bet on teams that underperformed, over time, you will be successful. The NFL is a ‘regress to the mean’ league and the discrepancy amongst teams is much smaller than the public perceives it to be. Well, here we are. Everyone is off the Jaguars bandwagon. I sat here and in my first article of the year I wrote: “I am just not ready to pencil the Jaguars in as the AFC title contenders that everyone seems to think they are for years to come”. Yes, I am happy with myself for calling the regression of the Jaguars. However, the pendulum has shifted too far in the other direction after a myriad of disappointing performances from the Jags. Take a step back for a second, this roster is a 3 POINT UNDERDOG TO THE COLTS. Fade this extreme recency bias and bet that the Jaguars are somewhere in between title contender and bottom feeder. 

New Orleans Saints vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11/11 12:00pm CT

Line: Saints – 6
Betting Percentages Split: 77% of tickets on the Saints
The play: Bengals +6

Alright folks. Listen here. After going 11-1 over a two-week stretch in October, this article has not done well in the last two weeks. That has also coincided with the two of the worst Sunday’s Vegas has had in the last 10 years. Guess what? That trend will not continue. Every year there are about two to three Sundays where the public players win and the house loses. If those are also the first Sunday’s that I lose, I can live with it. Bet with the house and over time you will win money (this article is still over 60% on the year, we’re doing just fine). So here we go again, we are fading the public hard here. The Saints are a very good team, my favorite future I placed before the season was Saints to win the NFC at +700, I really, really liked this roster. However, public perception of this team has never been higher after a string of marquee wins that included the dismantling of the previously unbeatable Rams. So, what do we do? We bet against them. The Bengals are a quietly solid team capable of beating any team in the NFL and getting six points at home, in a noon game following the Saints primetime slot last week is an auto bet from me. Take the Bengals and the points.

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears 11/11 12:00pm CT

Line: Bears -7
Betting Percentages Split: 63% of tickets on the Bears 
The play: Lions +7

Look! Again! Another overreaction to recent results! This line is simply too big for two divisional teams that, realistically (cover your ears Bears fans), are relatively close to one another in terms of talent. The Bears are a very solid team. Nothing more, nothing less. They will find their way to 9 wins. The Lions are about one (maybe ½) notch below that and will find their way to 7 or 8 wins. Can we agree on that? No? Okay, you know I am right and that disparity just does not warrant a 7-point spread. The Lions threw up a stinker against a surging Vikings team and I expect them to move back closer to the mean and play the Bears close. 

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns 11/11 12:00pm CT

Line: Falcons -6.5
Betting Percentages Split: 82% tickets on the Falcons 
The play: Browns +6.5

I sat and stared at my computer screen for a very long time just looking at this line. The Browns meet every criteria I look for in a game. They played a game with a deceiving score last week (they played the Chiefs closer than the score indicates). They have less than 20% of the bet tickets. They are an NFL team (yes, I know, ground breaking) catching significant points at home. They are better than their record indicates, swaying public perception. The line has, multiple times throughout the week, shifted against the public bet tickets, indicating that professionals are betting on the Browns. But, it’s the Browns and this bet felt disgusting. Then I remembered, if it feels gross when you place it, good. So, hold your nose, bet the Browns and the points. 

Bonus College Game: Northwestern vs Iowa 11/10 3:30pm CT

Line: Iowa -11
Betting Percentages Split: 69% of tickets on Northwestern 
The play: Northwestern +11

Do I hate that the public is on Northwestern? Yes. Very much so. This line is WAYYYY too big and frankly, that scares me a little. However, I know the guys in that locker room, I know what their mindset was going into the ND game last week (we cared A LOT more about this week) and I know how much we LOVE playing at Kinnick Stadium. Could you play the angle that we only need to win 2 of our last 3 games to go to the Big Ten Championship? Sure, but, if we win this game we all but lock up our spot. If we lose, we still have to win on the road in Minneapolis and then play an Illinois team that would love nothing more than to knock us off. We do not want to leave this up for chance. We finish it this weekend in Iowa City and win outright, take the Cats and the points.  

Illinois legislature passes bill that could help build casino in Chicago

Illinois legislature passes bill that could help build casino in Chicago

The Illinois state legislature passed a bill that could help entice developers to build a casino in the Chicago city limits, according to the Chicago Tribune.

According to the report, both the House and Senate passed a bill which would restructure the tax structure for a potential casino-- something that had been viewed as an obstacle to draw interest from potential developers.

If a casino is built in the city, it would likely come with a sportsbook so that gamblers could stay closer to home to bet on games.

The bill now heads to Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s desk where he is expected to sign the bill into law.

The Chicago casino could also help fund the $45 billion Rebuild Illinois capital plan that Pritzker signed last year.

RELATED: First legal bet in Illinois was made on the White Sox

Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of the Bears.

 

NBC Sports Chicago to provide live multi-platform coverage of 2019 MLB Winter Meetings

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NBC Sports Chicago

NBC Sports Chicago to provide live multi-platform coverage of 2019 MLB Winter Meetings

Chicago, IL (December 5, 2019) – NBC Sports Chicago - THE NEW EXCLUSIVE HOME of the Blackhawks, Bulls and White Sox - is set to provide southside and northside baseball fans with extensive multi-platform coverage of the 2019 MLB Winter Meetings live from San Diego, Calif. beginning Monday, December 9 through Thursday, December 12, featuring nightly editions of Winter Meetings Live presented by Wintrust, SportsTalk Live presented by The Chevy Silverado, live afternoon editions of the popular “White Sox Talk” and “Cubs Talk” podcasts, along with massive in-depth reports/video offerings at NBCSportsChicago.com and via the MyTeams by NBC Sports app (NOTE: Fans located anywhere in the U.S. can download MyTeams for free on iOS and Android devices in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store).  Please note NBC Sports Chicago’s 2019 MLB Winter Meetings coverage highlights:

“WINTER MEETINGS LIVE” presented by Wintrust (Mon, Dec. 9/Wed, Dec. 11 at 10:30 PM CT -- Tue, Dec. 10/Thu, Dec. 12 at 7:00 PM CT) -- Hosted by David Kaplan (@thekapman) and Chuck Garfien (@ChuckGarfien), Winter Meetings Live presented by Wintrust will provide fans with the very latest White Sox/Cubs/MLB free agent signings details, along with the hottest trade rumor chatter throughout the week.  Kaplan and Garfien will also be joined by NBC Sports Chicago White Sox insider Vinnie Duber (@VinnieDuber) and Cubs insider Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23), along with additional national baseball experts, to break down every player move and provide additional analysis on how those moves affect the White Sox and Cubs heading into the 2020 MLB season.  NOTE: Live stream of Winter Meetings Live will also be available to unauthenticated NBC Sports Chicago subscribers via NBCSportsChicago.com/WatchLive and the MyTeams by NBC Sports app.

“SPORTSTALK LIVE” presented by The Chevy Silverado (Weeknights at 6:00 PM CT) -- NBC Sports Chicago’s weeknight sports discussion roundtable program SportsTalk Live presented by The Chevy Silverado - featuring host David Kaplan - will on location in San Diego throughout the week providing viewers with the very latest Cubs & White Sox free agent player moves, news, rumors, analysis and more.  In addition, “Kap” be joined each night by a panel baseball experts, along with numerous special guests from both teams.  NOTE: Live stream of SportsTalk Live and is available at NBCSportsChicago.com/WatchLive to authenticated NBC Sports Chicago subscribers.

“WHITE SOX TALK” & “CUBS TALK” Podcasts presented by Wintrust (Mon, Dec. 9-Thu, Dec. 12: “White Sox Talk” podcast at 12 NOON CT; “Cubs Talk” podcast 1:00 PM CT) -- Live, afternoon “Winter Meetings” editions of NBC Sports Chicago’s popular podcasts -“White Sox Talk” (featuring Chuck Garfien, Ryan McGuffey and Vinnie Duber) and “Cubs Talk” (featuring David Kaplan and Tony Andracki) - will be presented exclusively via the MyTeams by NBC Sports app next week, providing fans with up-to-the-minute breaking news, updates, detailed analysis, along with appearances from a number of special guests. Fans located anywhere in the U.S. can download MyTeams for free on iOS and Android devices in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. In addition, fans can download all of NBC Sports Chicago’s podcasts at NBCSportsChicago.com/podcasts and simply subscribe to them via Apple Podcasts, Google Play or Stitcher.  The podcasts can be played on any mobile device, laptop, or desktop computer.

NBCSportsChicago.com/”MyTeams by NBC Sports” app/Social Media – White Sox and Cubs fans are also urged to visit NBCSportsChicago.com and the “MyTeams by NBC Sports” app for expanded “Winter Meetings” coverage, along with video offerings, including interviews with team executives, national baseball experts and much more. From a social media standpoint, NBC Sports Chicago will also deliver a number of additional on-site Facebook Live (Facebook.com/NBCSChicago) “Winter Meetings” interviews and special segments throughout the week, along with “Sights & Sounds” highlights from ‘NBCSChicago’ via photos/quick video offerings from Instagram and Instagram Stories.  Fans can follow @NBCSWhiteSox and @NBCSCubs on Twitter for the very latest White Sox and Cubs news 24/7.

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