Sports Business

The Daily Line: Week 6 Football Picks

betting_odds2.png
USA TODAY

The Daily Line: Week 6 Football Picks

The Supreme Court opened the door for sports betting legalization with its May ruling that struck down a 1992 law that banned commercial sports betting in most states. Sports betting is not yet legal in Illinois, but with football season underway, former Northwestern offensive lineman Eric Olson will take a weekly look at the odds surrounding the action on the field.

Eric is traveling this week so Bears producer Paul Aspan will fill in with a weekend of picks. Unlike Eric, he certainly does not have a Masters in Predictive Analytics and his football ‘career’ came to a crashing halt a few Falls ago with the loud pop of a hamstring on a Lincoln Park flag football field. Suffice it to say, you should not expect him to replicate Eric’s 11-1 heater over the last two weeks.

Steelers at Bengals, Sunday 12PM CT

Spread: Bengals -2

Betting Percentage:  62% of bets on the Steelers; 75% of the money on Steelers

The pick: Steelers +2

I just don’t believe in the Bengals. Whether they’re 4-1 this year or 8-0 in 2015, there has to be some psychological impact knowing that your ceiling is the Wild Card game. The Steelers have won six straight games against Cinci, and I’m trying to figure out what exactly the Bengals do well. Yes they score points (thanks for pointing that out).  But their defense isn’t very good, they don’t get off the field on third down and they’re actually middle of the road in every offensive category: passing, rushing, 3rd down…everything outside of the one that matters most – scoring (where they’re 5th) - they’re somewhere between 12th and 23rd in the NFL. It’s not like the Steelers convinced me they’re fixed by beating Atlanta last week, but they do get to the quarterback (they lead the NFL with 19 sacks) and if this is a last score wins game, I’ll take Roethlisberger over Dalton all day.

Bears at Dolphins, Sunday 12PM CT

Spread: Bears – 3.5

Betting Percentage:  61% of bets on the Bears ; 55% of the money

The Pick: Dolphins +3.5

This line jumped from Bears -1.5 to -3 almost immediately, and late in the week it’s creeping higher. Everything points to the Bears this week, which I hate as far as taking their side. The Dolphins offensive line could be down three starters against the best pass rusher in the entire NFL in Khalil Mack. Starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil has practiced on a limited basis this week but is in the concussion protocol and watching his backup Sam Young get destroyed by the Bengals late in the Dolphins Week 5 collapse has to have the Bears foaming at the mouth. Home dogs have been hot (4-0 ATS last week), so I’m going back to that well and counting on the hook to make the difference.

Which brings me to a home dog teaser.

Two 12 PM CT games

  • Dolphins +3.5 vs Bears
  • Raiders +3 vs Seahawks (in London)

 

Two 3:25PM CT games

  • Titans +3 vs Ravens
  • Cowboys +3 vs Jaguars

 

Tease them all up 6 points at +260 odds (a $10 bet would win $26), and it looks like this:

  • Dolphins + 9.5
  • Titans +9
  • Cowboys +9
  • Raiders +9

 

Yes, I’m including the Raiders in my home dogs teaser. Who were the original Raiders? Pretty sure guys like Blackbeard and Jack Sparrow were British as hell. Factor in Mark Davis’ Beatles haircut and the Raiders should feel right at home at Wembley. The Seahawks had their Super Bowl last week, throwing everything they had at the Rams. They appeared to get past the Earl Thomas contract / injury backlash and the Russell Wilson favoritism fall out but this feels like a house of cards that might now just fall apart.

The Ravens – as we discussed on The Daily Line podcast – disgust all of us with their inconsistency. They’re currently 10/1 to win the Super Bowl which is insane, and I can’t not take the points against Joe Flacco with a Titans team that suffered a not all that unpredictable letdown in Buffalo after beating the defending Super Bowl champs the week before.

The Cowboys red zone defense balled out against the Texans but once again Jason Garrett’s (lack of) strategy & job security is already a hot topic in Big D. And speaking of QBs you can’t trust, Blake Bortles made sure to remind everyone last week with a nice little 4 INT game in Kansas City.

And I’ll just add this to the Dolphins: they lead the NFL in interceptions (10) as they suit up against young Mitchell Trubisky. Now that I’ve tried to pounce on the hot home dogs trend (16-6 ATS this season), here’s to hoping it waits at least one more week to regress.

Obscure College Pick of the Week:

Middle Tennessee State vs FIU Saturday 6:30PM CT

Total: O/U: 56.5  

Betting Percentage: 37% Bets, 64% of the money on the Over

The Pick: Over 56.5

To be honest I was just looking for a lopsided discrepancy between the percentage of bets (public money) and percentage of money (sharp money). And I knew I didn’t want to take an under because cheering for no points is no fun. So here we are.

The total opened at 58 and dropped to 56.5. Only 37% of the bets are on the over, but 64% of the money is on the over, so count me in on the over. And if that’s not enough of a draw for you, this is a battle for first place in Conference USA’s East division and features a father-son Coach-QB combo of Rick Stockstill & Brent Stockstill for Middle Tennessee State. Just don’t ask me how (or if) I plan on watching this game on Saturday.

Illinois legislature passes bill that could help build casino in Chicago

Illinois legislature passes bill that could help build casino in Chicago

The Illinois state legislature passed a bill that could help entice developers to build a casino in the Chicago city limits, according to the Chicago Tribune.

According to the report, both the House and Senate passed a bill which would restructure the tax structure for a potential casino-- something that had been viewed as an obstacle to draw interest from potential developers.

If a casino is built in the city, it would likely come with a sportsbook so that gamblers could stay closer to home to bet on games.

The bill now heads to Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s desk where he is expected to sign the bill into law.

The Chicago casino could also help fund the $45 billion Rebuild Illinois capital plan that Pritzker signed last year.

RELATED: First legal bet in Illinois was made on the White Sox

Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of the Bears.

 

NBC Sports Chicago to provide live multi-platform coverage of 2019 MLB Winter Meetings

winter_meetings_live.jpg
NBC Sports Chicago

NBC Sports Chicago to provide live multi-platform coverage of 2019 MLB Winter Meetings

Chicago, IL (December 5, 2019) – NBC Sports Chicago - THE NEW EXCLUSIVE HOME of the Blackhawks, Bulls and White Sox - is set to provide southside and northside baseball fans with extensive multi-platform coverage of the 2019 MLB Winter Meetings live from San Diego, Calif. beginning Monday, December 9 through Thursday, December 12, featuring nightly editions of Winter Meetings Live presented by Wintrust, SportsTalk Live presented by The Chevy Silverado, live afternoon editions of the popular “White Sox Talk” and “Cubs Talk” podcasts, along with massive in-depth reports/video offerings at NBCSportsChicago.com and via the MyTeams by NBC Sports app (NOTE: Fans located anywhere in the U.S. can download MyTeams for free on iOS and Android devices in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store).  Please note NBC Sports Chicago’s 2019 MLB Winter Meetings coverage highlights:

“WINTER MEETINGS LIVE” presented by Wintrust (Mon, Dec. 9/Wed, Dec. 11 at 10:30 PM CT -- Tue, Dec. 10/Thu, Dec. 12 at 7:00 PM CT) -- Hosted by David Kaplan (@thekapman) and Chuck Garfien (@ChuckGarfien), Winter Meetings Live presented by Wintrust will provide fans with the very latest White Sox/Cubs/MLB free agent signings details, along with the hottest trade rumor chatter throughout the week.  Kaplan and Garfien will also be joined by NBC Sports Chicago White Sox insider Vinnie Duber (@VinnieDuber) and Cubs insider Tony Andracki (@TonyAndracki23), along with additional national baseball experts, to break down every player move and provide additional analysis on how those moves affect the White Sox and Cubs heading into the 2020 MLB season.  NOTE: Live stream of Winter Meetings Live will also be available to unauthenticated NBC Sports Chicago subscribers via NBCSportsChicago.com/WatchLive and the MyTeams by NBC Sports app.

“SPORTSTALK LIVE” presented by The Chevy Silverado (Weeknights at 6:00 PM CT) -- NBC Sports Chicago’s weeknight sports discussion roundtable program SportsTalk Live presented by The Chevy Silverado - featuring host David Kaplan - will on location in San Diego throughout the week providing viewers with the very latest Cubs & White Sox free agent player moves, news, rumors, analysis and more.  In addition, “Kap” be joined each night by a panel baseball experts, along with numerous special guests from both teams.  NOTE: Live stream of SportsTalk Live and is available at NBCSportsChicago.com/WatchLive to authenticated NBC Sports Chicago subscribers.

“WHITE SOX TALK” & “CUBS TALK” Podcasts presented by Wintrust (Mon, Dec. 9-Thu, Dec. 12: “White Sox Talk” podcast at 12 NOON CT; “Cubs Talk” podcast 1:00 PM CT) -- Live, afternoon “Winter Meetings” editions of NBC Sports Chicago’s popular podcasts -“White Sox Talk” (featuring Chuck Garfien, Ryan McGuffey and Vinnie Duber) and “Cubs Talk” (featuring David Kaplan and Tony Andracki) - will be presented exclusively via the MyTeams by NBC Sports app next week, providing fans with up-to-the-minute breaking news, updates, detailed analysis, along with appearances from a number of special guests. Fans located anywhere in the U.S. can download MyTeams for free on iOS and Android devices in the Apple App Store and Google Play Store. In addition, fans can download all of NBC Sports Chicago’s podcasts at NBCSportsChicago.com/podcasts and simply subscribe to them via Apple Podcasts, Google Play or Stitcher.  The podcasts can be played on any mobile device, laptop, or desktop computer.

NBCSportsChicago.com/”MyTeams by NBC Sports” app/Social Media – White Sox and Cubs fans are also urged to visit NBCSportsChicago.com and the “MyTeams by NBC Sports” app for expanded “Winter Meetings” coverage, along with video offerings, including interviews with team executives, national baseball experts and much more. From a social media standpoint, NBC Sports Chicago will also deliver a number of additional on-site Facebook Live (Facebook.com/NBCSChicago) “Winter Meetings” interviews and special segments throughout the week, along with “Sights & Sounds” highlights from ‘NBCSChicago’ via photos/quick video offerings from Instagram and Instagram Stories.  Fans can follow @NBCSWhiteSox and @NBCSCubs on Twitter for the very latest White Sox and Cubs news 24/7.

####