The Chicago Bears are paying Allen Robinson $42 million over the next three seasons to be the kind of alpha playmaker he was in 2015 with the Jaguars when he scored 14 touchdowns and looked uncoverable.
The signing isn't without risk. Robinson is coming off of a torn ACL suffered in last year's season opener and expectations for his early-season production should be kept in check. The point remains, however, that Robinson will be targeted and will be expected to turn those targets into production consistent with a No. 1 receiver.
According to a recent list of likely fantasy football busts for 2018, don't bet on Robinson making the most of his opportunities.
Robinson will be catching passes from second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who led the league's worst passing attack last season (175.7 yards per game). Trubisky has better weapons around him, has an offensive head coach in Matt Nagy and has a year of experience under his belt. However, he is far from a proven gunslinger.
Let's not forget the Bears have a strong backfield comprised of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Chicago is going to lean on the running game.
FantasyPros has Robinson's average draft position (ADP) at 20.8 among wide receivers in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues. This is too high for a guy with a lot of question marks and who has only topped 75 receptions for 1,000 yards once in his career.There certainly are reasons to be cautious and maybe even a little nervous with Robinson in your fantasy league, but none of them should be because he has only one season of 1,000 yards.
Last year was a wash (one game played) and the season before, Robinson was on the other end of Blake Bortles' erratic and inaccurate throws. It's amazing that A-Rob was able to do so much damage in 2015 with Bortles under center.
If you're drafting Robinson with visions of him winning you a fantasy championship, you're likely to be disappointed. That said, barring another catastrophic injury, he should produce numbers like that of a No. 2 fantasy receiver with the upside to be a No. 1.