The Washington Wizards are having a fire sale and their star backcourt of Bradley Beal and John Wall stand as their most attractive trade assets. The Bulls have their 2019 offseason plan of picking up a max-contract caliber player to add to their young and exciting core, but acquiring a player via trade is the best way to get an asset that is under a control long-term.
Obviously, the Wizards aren’t giving up Beal or Wall without a solid long-term asset coming back, and that is when the question becomes is it worth it for Chicago to give up a blue-chip prospect to add Wall to the core? And do the Wizards consider the Bulls with Wall a playoff team in the short term?
The proposed trade would be:
Wizards receive: Bobby Portis (restricted free agent) Robin Lopez (expiring contract), Justin Holiday (expiring contract), Denzel Valentine, 2019 1st round pick, 2021 1st round pick
Bulls receive: John Wall
For the Bulls the rationale is that they are still years away from being a playoff contender but making this trade makes them a legitimate playoff contender through the duration of Wall’s deal, a playoff hopeful with the ability to be much more with a few rotation pieces sprinkled in.
Wall is under contract through the 2022-23 season and has a 15 percent trade kicker that would make his yearly contract more than the $42 million a year he is due now. The contract is massive but the payoff would be worth it if Wall’s playmaking prowess could take the games of Lauri Markkanen and Zach LaVine to an even higher level.
As of now, LaVine has a usage rate (32 percent) on par with that of James Harden (34 percent) but the difference is that LaVine doesn’t have that secondary, high-usage player that can allow LaVine to take a few possessions off on offense.
Antonio Blakeney and Jabari Parker have failed in that role in the absence of Markkanen. Dunn is capable of controlling the offense but doesn’t provide the same upside as Wall in terms of driving to the rim. Wall is third in the league in drives per game (16.9) and fourth in the league in free throw attempts per game off of drives. In Hoiberg’s offense, his ability to get downhill would open up opportunities for Markkanen and Carter, all who offer more in terms of pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop ability than anyone currently in the Wizards big man rotation.
The offense would have a bit of a my turn, your turn-feel to it. But it could work for the Bulls as long as they continue to pick up shooters to space the floor for inevitable Wall-Markkanen pick-and-pops (or PnR).
Defensively this trade offers a ton of upside as well. Hoiberg and the front office would have to go through a bit of a rough patch with the rotation as he figures out how to make up for having one SF after this deal.
Rawle Alkins could be called up from the G League and the free agent market could be explored as Hutchison receives a ton of valuable playing time. Hoiberg would also be able to experiment with three-guard lineups that actually provide some semblance of perimeter defense.
The lineup of Felicio, Parker, Blakeney, Ryan Arcidiacono and Shaq Harrison has a massive 41.2 net rating. That is not truly representative of the effectiveness of the lineup because it comes in such a small sample size. But the reason it’s interesting is because that lineup did so well is the presence of three-guards and the fact that it was one of the Bulls better lineups in terms of pushing the pace.
Hoiberg has slowly started to ramp the pace back up as he awaits the returns of his top talents but Wall’s arrival would allow his offense to work at warp-speed now.
A lineup including Wall and Dunn on the floor together would allow defenses to shrink the floor, but the issue can be mitigated by the Bulls cluster of 3-point shooting bigs and occasionally playing LaVine at the small forward spot.
Ultimately, this trade would give the Bulls a solid core of Wall, LaVine, Markkanen, Carter--and potentially Dunn and Parker depending on what the front office decides--that could develop into one of the more balanced lineups in the league.
For Washington, this trade allows them to unload the massive contract of Wall, which may make him harder to move than Beal.
There aren’t a ton of point guard-hungry teams in the NBA. And even the guard-needy teams will likely want to wait until the 2019 offseason to see if they have a shot at players like Kemba Walker, Kyrie Irving, Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic or Terry Rozier; all who come with less baggage than Wall. The Suns, Magic and Lakers all could arguably make better cases for Wall trades depending on what assets they were willing to give up. But being willing to give up multiple future 1st round picks and/or their 2019 pick could separate the Bulls from the pack.
The main competitor would be fellow Klutch Sports client LeBron James’ Lakers but the fact they think they have a shot in the Jimmy Butler/Kawhi Leonard/Klay Thompson sweepstakes could make them hesitant to make a long-term commitment to Wall.
There are very few windows when a legitimate All-NBA caliber player is available. While the Bulls may think waiting to the offseason to add talent is the best course of action, their low success rate in recent free agency periods suggests that they definitely should reach out to the Wizards and feel out what type of package they are looking for.