Minnesota Vikings

Three keys and prediction: How the Bears can win a statement game against the Vikings

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USA Today

Three keys and prediction: How the Bears can win a statement game against the Vikings

1. Finish in the fourth quarter. Here’s a blind test of which team is which: 

Team A: 29.9 points/game (5th), 19.4 points allowed/game (4th), 4th in DVOA
Team B: 24.6 points/game (15th), 22.7 points allowed/game (11th), 14th in DVOA

The Bears are Team A, and the Vikings are Team B. The point here being: The Bears are, on paper, a better team than the Vikings — and, actually, it’s not particularly close. 

But what the Vikings have that the Bears don’t is experience winning together. While Kirk Cousins wasn’t on this team last year, the same core playmakers remain: Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph on offense; Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr (who’s questionable for Sunday’s game), Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter on defense. Those guys led the Vikings to the NFC Championship game a year ago, which included that miraculous win over the New Orleans Saints in the divisional round. 

Minnesota, as an offense, isn’t markedly better in the fourth quarter (5.6 yards/play) than the other three periods, but they’re not worse than their full-game average (5.8 yards/play). Their defense, on the other hand, is at its best in the final 15 minutes, allowing 4.7 yards/play, lower than the 5.3 yards/play they’ve allowed this season. 

The Bears, meanwhile, have struggled in the fourth quarter on offense (4.9 yards/play, about one yard fewer than their season average) and defense (7.0 yards/play, two yards more than their season average). Matt Nagy and this team can do plenty over the first 45 minutes to make sure it’s not a one-possession game in the fourth quarter, but even if that’s the case, they’ll need to be better down the stretch to beat Minnesota. 

2. Make big plays on defense. Thielen has 100 or more receiving yards in eight of his nine games this year, while Diggs has gone over 90 yards in half of his eight games. While Bryce Callahan and Kyle Fuller are playing at Pro Bowl levels and might very well be capable of shutting both receivers down, the expectation here is that Thielen and Diggs will get their yards on Sunday night. What will key the Bears’ defense, then, will be big plays: Interceptions, forced fumbles, sacks, tackles for loss, etc. The good news: Cousins has been sacked four times in four games this year, three of which the Vikings lost. Hitting home on Cousins and making him uncomfortable should result in the kind of game-shifting plays the Bears’ defense will need. 

3. Stay on schedule on offense. Opposing offenses are averaging 8.6 yards-to-gain on third down against Minnesota’s defense, which is about a yard and a half better than the league average. What’s interesting about that third down yards-to-gain number is it’s actually higher than what opposing offenses average on second down (8.1) against this defense. Needing to win on third down is sort of a non-starter for the Bears’ offense, given the three teams that beat Minnesota (the Bills, Rams and Saints) converted only 11 of 34 third down tries. But picking up quick first downs, or at least generating some third-and-short downs, can mitigate that strength of Minnesota’s defense. 

Prediction: Bears 27, Vikings 17. Just about every worst-to-first team has a “statement game” in which they prove they’ve arrived against a good team, or at least a team generally thought to be good. The Bears are a better team than the Vikings entering Sunday, but still have to prove — perhaps to themselves — that they’re a better team than the defending NFC North champions. Consider this a gut feeling: This is the game the Bears do just that, taking the step from being a potential playoff contender to a legit favorite to win their division.

As Bears enter season-tipping game, four ascending players could key win over Vikings

As Bears enter season-tipping game, four ascending players could key win over Vikings

The Bears, sure, haven’t beat anyone good. Their best win is over the 5-5 Seattle Seahawks, and the combined record of the six teams they’ve defeated is 19-38. 

But it’s also true that the Minnesota Vikings haven’t beat anyone good in 2018 either. Their best win came against the 4-5 Philadelphia Eagles, and the combined record of the five teams they’ve beat is 14-33.

The Vikings have lost to the Bills (3-7), Rams (9-1) and Saints (9-1), while the Bears have lost to the Packers (4-5-1), Dolphins (5-5) and Patriots (7-3). All this is to say: One of these two teams will get their best win of 2018 on Sunday night. 

And the Bears have shown plenty of signs over the last few weeks that they have a strong chance of emerging from a critical battle for the NFC North with a win. These four players are among the biggest reasons why:

1. Roquan Smith

The report: There’s little questioning the connection between Smith missing all but about a practice and a half of training camp/preseason and the No. 8 overall pick’s slow start to the regular season, but he’s come on strong as of late. Smith has 12 tackles in his last two games, providing big-time run support to mute the production of LeSean McCoy and Kerryon Johnson, and he sacked Matthew Stafford last weekend, too. 

He’s playing with a certain quickness that perhaps was lacking in the first eight weeks of the season, and it’s clear the game is slowing down for him, allowing him to make plays with his physicality and sideline-to-sideline athleticism. 

“He’s getting better and better every day and not just every game,” defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said. “I see better things in practice, just little things, processing quicker, executing his job crisper and more quickly, if that’s such a word, and he’s getting better every day.”

The matchup: The Vikings’ offense hasn’t got running back Dalvin Cook rolling since he returned from a balky hamstring in Week 9. His explosive rushing ability provides a different dynamic for the Vikings’ offense, and getting him going would make things far easier for Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. While Eddie Goldman and Akiem Hicks are critical for the Bears’ run-stuffing efforts, it’ll be Smith and Danny Trevathan who may need to step up to keep him from ripping off a big-chunk play, as he did with a 70-yard dash against the Lions two weeks ago. 

“He’s strong but explosive,” Fangio said. “He can break the big run. He had a 70-yarder here recently against (Detroit) so he’s a threat to go the route all the time. He’s a really good all-around player.”

2. Anthony Miller

The report: Miller’s breakout game against Detroit (five catches, 122 yards, 1 TD) had been coming for weeks — he just needed Mitch Trubisky to connect with him when he ran open. That finally happened against the Lions. His chemistry with Trubisky is becoming apparent, and he’s combining his route-running savviness with increased experience to consistently find openings in whatever defense is in front of him. 

“He's slowly starting to fit into what we see him being down the road here,” coach Matt Nagy said. “And so any way we can get him the ball we're going to try to do that.”

The matchup: Miller primarily plays in the slot, running 71 percent of his offensive snaps from that position. Against the Vikings, he’ll face off against slot corner Mackensie Alexander, who’s allowed 28 receptions on 34 targets for 303 yards, good for 10.8 yards/reception, and a passer rating of 103.8 according to Pro Football Focus (for a slot corner comparison, scroll down for the Bryce Callahan section of this article). The Bears have a matchup edge here, so long as Trubisky is able to take advantage of it. 

3. Bryce Callahan

The report: Forget about the offseason price tag of Callahan, an impending free agent, going up by the game. The 27-year-old is playing spectacular football, holding opposing receivers to 28 receptions 38 targets (73.7 percent) for 219 yards (7.8 yards/reception) and a passer rating of 74.3 when he’s thrown at, per PFF. Perhaps making those numbers more impressive — of the 10 incompletions when passes are thrown his way, five were pass break-ups and two were interceptions. On top of all that, he has two sacks, two quarterback hits and seven hurries this year, good for 11 total pressures — more than double the next-highest total for a cornerback (Arizona’s Budda Baker has five). He’s playing at a Pro Bowl level. 

“There are a lot of little things that he’s mastered and can go to the next level as far as reading and dissecting routes and knowing how to play them, maybe playing them a half-second quicker than he did two years ago,” Fangio said. “Those things start to add up.”

The matchup: Adam Thielen can play both inside and outside, but has played the majority of his 586 snaps from the slot (53 percent). While he won’t be exclusively matched up against Callahan, the two former undrafted free agents will go against each other in a battle of strength vs. strength. Thielen already has 947 yards on 78 receptions, and until Minnesota’s Week 9 win over the Detroit Lions had eight consecutive games with at least 100 receivers yards (he’s also caught a touchdown in six consecutive games). Cousins has a passer rating of 119.2 when throwing Thielen’s way, too. If Callahan can win this matchup, it’ll be massive for the Bears’ chances on Sunday. It’s worth noting two of Cousins’ five interceptions have come when throwing Thielen’s way. 

“Both of those receivers with Thielen and Diggs, they're just very natural receivers,” Nagy said. “They have excellent hands, great route runners, they understand how to beat zones and then Kirk throwing the ball to them, he's been doing it for a long time, he's extremely accurate, he's tough, he finds different ways to get the ball to those guys.”

4. Mitch Trubisky

The report: On one hand, Trubisky lit up the Lions’ defense for 355 yards on 23/30 passing with three touchdowns and an additional rushing score. On the other hand, the Lions’ defense is awful, and the Vikings will bring a stout group to Soldier Field on Sunday night. The thought being: Trubisky still needs to prove himself against a good defense. 

But Nagy explained why what Trubisky did against Detroit didn’t necessarily have anything to do with Matt Patricia’s side having one of the league’s worst defenses. Specifically: Miller easily beat a blown coverage for a touchdown, but what Trubisky did to get him the ball translates against any defense. 

“Find an open guy and throw it to him,” Nagy said. “That's what we did. He has a progression. He has a progression. And so whether it's a blown coverage or a wide receiver runs a good route and beats a guy, as long as he's sticking within that progression and going from one, two, three, maybe four, or one, two, three, to run, etc., as long as he stays within that we're good.”

The matchup: A year ago, in primetime against the Vikings, Trubisky was baited into throwing a late-game interception by safety Harrison Smith, which led to a Kai Forbath game-winning field goal. Smith remains one of the very best safeties in the NFL, with three interceptions this year while allowing a passer rating of 66.1 when he’s targeted, according to PFF. 

“I think I’ve grown a lot since that play,” Trubisky said. “I’m not the same player, not even close. I’ve got better since that instance and I’m excited for the opportunity this weekend.”

Still, Trubisky will have to be aware of Smith at all times. Smith is one of those guys who epitomizes the Vikings’ ability to win close games — a been-there, done-that kind of guy. 

“He’s kind of like “Where’s Waldo?” He’s everywhere,” Nagy said. “And there’s several safeties in this league that are like him, where guys that can come down, play in the box, guys that blitz — very similar to (Jamal Adams). So he’s gonna be everywhere and he’s good at what he does. Harrison’s made consecutive Pro Bowls. We were with him in the Pro Bowl and he can play post-safety, play high, take care of the pass game. He’s got good ball skills. He can hit you hard. He can cover. It’s one of the reasons they’re a top defense. “ 

NFC North standings: Bears earn some much-needed breathing room

NFC North standings: Bears earn some much-needed breathing room

The Bears earned a little bit more breathing room at the top of the NFC North standings with their win over the Detroit Lions on Sunday.

The Minnesota Vikings had been hot on their tail in second place, but Kirk Cousins and Co. had their bye week on Week 10, so Chicago was able to increase the gap with its win.

Of course, they’ll go head-to-head in their next game on Sunday Night Football on NBC, and a Vikings win would have them surpass the Bears in winning percentage for the season.

Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers got back on track with a 31-12 win over the Miami Dolphins, but at 4-4-1, they still have some catching up to do before they’re back in the hunt for the division crown.

The Packers will play the Vikings right after the Bears do, but first they have a Thursday night matchup with the Seattle Seahawks to try and get back above .500.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Lions fell to 3-6 with their loss at Soldier Field, and any hopes they had at a surprise playoff run seemed to have dissipated. They’ll have their chance at revenge against the Bears on Thanksgiving.