Cubs

Ultimate guide to the Kentucky Derby

dortmund-pre-workout-kentucky-derby-slide-05-01.png

Ultimate guide to the Kentucky Derby

The greatest two minutes in sports takes place this Saturday afternoon as a field of twenty three-year-old runners will contest the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.  To be contested at 1 ¼ miles on the main track, the Derby will be run at about 5:30 p.m. with coverage beginning at 3 p.m. on NBC.

Below I’ll take a look at the field of 20 for the Derby, how they got here and what their chances are to win the Kentucky Derby.  As we’ve seen recently with California Chrome, Orb and Big Brown, the favorites handle themselves very well on the first Saturday in May.  There’s always those like War Emblem, Giacomo and Mine That Bird that can turn the race upside down.

Taking a look at the Derby in Post Position order:

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho – Trainer: James Cassidy, Jockey: Elvis Trujillo (M/L Odds 50-1)

CredentialsWon all three races as a two-year-old, including the Grade 2 Delta Jackpot.  He finished eighth in the Grade 2 San Felipe before finishing third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass.

Chances of Winning – Poor. At two, Ocho Ocho Ocho was highly regarded, winning while close to the pace, but also settling and closing late.  He had all sorts of early trouble in the San Felipe before setting the fractions and giving way in the Blue Grass.  Unfortunately he gets buried on the rail, often a death-wish in the Derby.  If he can settle early, he may be able to split the field in the Derby.

2. Carpe Diem – Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: John Velazquez (M/L Odds 8-1)

CredentialsSecond in last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as the favorite, Carpe Diem has won both starts this year, winning the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade 1 Blue Grass.

Chances of WinningModerate. Carpe Diem has run well in each start, but faced a rather soft field in the Tampa Bay Derby, followed by a field that appeared more Grade 3 caliber than Grade 1 caliber in the Blue Grass.  He has had some issues loading into the gate, battling starters and loading into the gate.  With the long walk over to the paddock prior to the Derby, and the extended time in what becomes a very tight paddock at Churchill Downs, nerves could get to Carpe Diem.  Post number two almost forces him to rush early which can also compromise his chances.  A bonus though is an excellent trainer in Pletcher.

3. Materiality – Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: Javier Castellano (M/L Odds 12-1)

CredentialsLightly raced with only three lifetime starts, Materiality has done nothing wrong, winning all three of those races.  After breaking his maiden while sprinting as a two-year-old, he defeated fellow Derby entrant Stanford in the Islamorada Handicap before winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his most recent start.

Chances of WinningModerate.  I actually like this Pletcher starter better than Carpe Diem.  Even though his only graded start was in the Florida Derby, he beat a quality bunch there.  I expect him to be sitting right with American Pharoah much of the way around and he may rate a bit closer due to the inside draw.  I liked his effort in the Islamorada but felt the entire field was tiring late in the Florida Derby, including him in his winning effort.

4. Tencendur – Trainer: George Weaver, Jockey: Manny Franco (M/L Odds 30-1)

Credentials – Has one career win from five lifetime starts.  He finished fourth in the Grade 3 Withers and third in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct before running second most recently in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.

Chances of Winning – Poor.  With only a maiden victory on his resume, Tencendur hasn’t shown he’s fast enough to win the Derby.  That being said, he did run a career best race in his most recent start and may be peaking at the right time.  While he likely isn’t quick enough to win, he may be able to finish in the top half of the field in the Derby.

5. Danzig Moon – Trainer: Mark Casse, Jockey: Julien Leparoux (M/L Odds 30-1)

Credentials – Has only one career win. He finished fourth in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Grade 1 Blue Grass.

Chances of Winning – Poor.  With only a maiden win on his resume, Danzig Moon doesn’t appear to be the caliber of many others in here.  He was a well-beaten fourth in what wasn’t a great Tampa Bay Derby and chased Carpe Diem in a soft version of the Blue Grass.  He’s likely to rate near the back of the back early in the Kentucky Derby but I expect him to make little impact.

6. Mubtaahij – Trainer: Michael dekock, Jockey: Christophe Soumillon (M/L Odds 20-1)

CredentialsA winner of four of seven races lifetime, Mubtaahij has those four wins in his last five starts since moving to conventional dirt.  In his most recent start, Mubtaahij easily handled the field in the Group 2 UAE Derby at Meydan.

Chances of WinningModerate. This may be the wise-guy horse in the Derby as many have been abuzz about Mubtaahij since his win overseas.  He has gotten better with the stretch in distance on dirt.  For him it has been a lot of travel since that race, with a flight overseas, a stop at Arlington Park and then moving onto Churchill.  I don’t expect him to win as horses making the UAE Derby to Kentucky Derby move have not fared well.

7. El Kabeir – Trainer: John Terranova, Jockey: Calvin Borel (M/L Odds 30-1)

CredentialsA four time winner on his career, El Kabeir has made nine starts with seven of those coming against graded stakes-company.  He has hit the board in six of those seven graded races, including wins in the Grade 3 Jerome and Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct this year.  Most recently, El Kabeir ran third in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.

Chances of Winning – Good.  I like El Kabeir’s running style better than many others in here.  He already has a win over the Churchill surface with Borel aboard.  I think he was hurt by a tepid pace in the Wood and is insured a pace that is much more swift in the Derby.  Because he will settle early, post isn’t as much of a concern for him as it is others.

8. Dortmund – Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Martin Garcia (M/L Odds 3-1)

CredentialsUndefeated runner in six lifetime starts, Dortmund stands out physically as the most imposing thoroughbred in this race.  He took the Southern California route to the Derby with wins in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis, Grade 2 San Felipe, and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

Chances of WinningExcellent.  This will be my top choice in this year’s Derby.  He seemed to toy with horses early in his career only to beat them in the end.  In his last two races, he was in complete control, showing excellent stretch acceleration.  Because of his physical size, if things get tight during the running of the race, horses will bounce off him instead on him being the one that gets bothered. On Saturday, I expect he rates back, possibly seventh or eighth early and comes running in the stretch.

9. Bolo – Trainer: Carla Gaines, Jockey: Rafael Bejarano (M/L Odds 30-1)

CredentialsA winner twice from five lifetime starts.  Bolo has made two starts in 2015, finishing third in the Grade 2 San Felipe and third in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, both races won by Dortmund.

Chances of WinningModerate. Bolo has been pretty solid in his two races over the dirt this year.  He ran into some traffic trouble in the San Felipe before running wide throughout in the Santa Anita Derby.  He’s likely to sit mid-pack early and may move forward in the lane.

10. Firing Line – Trainer: Simon Callaghan, Jockey: Gary Stevens (M/L Odds 12-1)

Credentials Has never run worse than second from five career starts.  Has run close-up seconds to Dortmund twice, in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity as a two-year-old and Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at three.  Most recently he won the Grade 3 Sunland Derby by over 14 lengths.

Chances of WinningGood.  Firing Line could be the sleeper in the Kentucky Derby.  Two of his three second-place finishes put him within a head of one of the likely Derby favorites in Dortmund.  The Sunland Derby may have had a better bunch than the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby (excluding the winners of those races) and he crushed that bunch.  He drew nicely in the middle of the field.  He may sit fifth or sixth early and could be in a perfect spot turning for home in the Derby.

11. Stanford – Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: Florent Geroux (M/L Odds 30-1)

CredentialsA winner of two of five starts on his career.  Stanford finished second behind Materiality in the Islamorada before finishing second in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby behind International Star.

Chances of WinningModerate.  Stanford intrigues me a little bit in the Derby.  He set quick fractions in the Islamorada before tiring late to run second.  Under Geroux, he settled better in the Louisiana Derby and nearly held off International Star at the wire. If he is sent, you could be hearing his name first when the field hits the top of the stretch in the Derby.  The concern is with Carpe Diem also having pace from the Pletcher barn, what will the riding instructions be?

12. International Star – Trainer: Mike Maker, Jockey:  Miguel Mena (M/L Odds 20-1)

CredentialsThe leading point getter in the Kentucky Derby Points System, International Star rides a three race win streak into the Kentucky Derby.  All three wins came as a three-year-old and all three came in New Orleans, winning the Grade 3 LeComte, Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Chances of WinningGood. The fields he faced in New Orleans weren’t overwhelming, but they were stronger than some of the other prep races leading up to this year’s Derby.  He won those races with late rail moves so tight quarters don’t bother him.  He has also improved with added distance in each start.  I expect he saves ground much of the way and hopes the rail opens up in the stretch, much like it did for Mine That Bird.

13. Itsaknockout – Trainer: Todd Pletcher, Jockey: Luis Saez (M/L Odds 20-1)

Credentials – A winner of three of four career starts, Itsaknockout was placed first via disqualification behind Upstart in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.  Most recently he finished fourth in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Chances of WinningPoor.  Itsaknockout’s running style likely places him mid-pack early but I expect that mid-pack trip will become a fading trip in the stretch.  He was the beneficiary of a terrible DQ call in the Fountain of Youth as he was no match for Upstart in the stretch that day.  Although he finished fourth in the Florida Derby, that fourth was while beaten 21 lengths.

14. Keen Ice – Trainer: Dale Romans, Jockey: Kent Desormeaux (M/L Odds 50-1)

Credentials – A winner once from seven lifetime starts.  Keen Ice finished fifth in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, third in the Grade 2 Risen Star and fourth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.

Chances of Winning – Poor.  Keen Ice got into the Derby late due to a defection by another runner with more points.  You won’t see much of him early as he will be well back.  He may pass some tiring runners in the lane.

15. Frosted – Trainer: Kiaran Mclaughlin, Jockey: Joel Rosario (M/L Odds 15-1)

CredentialsA winner twice on his career, Frosted finished second in the Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream, fourth in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, and won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his most recent start.

Chances of WinningModerate.  I think Frosted has a shot to be a part of the gimmicks in the Derby.  He has shown improvement in starts as he was part of a roughly run Fountain of Youth but bounced back to win the Wood Memorial in fine fashion.  Rosario is aboard and he has been one of the best jockeys in the world in the last two years.

16. War Story – Trainer: Tom Amoss, Jockey: Joe Talamo (M/L Odds 50-1)

Credentials – Never worse than third in five career starts, War Story ran second in the Grade 3 LeComte and Grade 2 Risen Start. Most recently he ran third in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, with all three of those races being won by International Star.

Chances of WinningPoor.  While I do not expect that War Story can win, He may be able to run in as a piece of the gimmicks underneath in the Derby.  War Story’s biggest issue is the break as he often gets away poorly, spotting the field 2-3 lengths.  His maiden win did come at Churchill and a clean break may place him mid-pack early with a chance to move forward in the stretch.

17. Mr. Z – Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas, Jockey: Ramon Vazquez (M/L Odds 50-1)

CredentialsEasily the most experienced of this Derby field, having made 12 lifetime starts. Of those twelve races, he only has a maiden win in his debut last June at Churchill.  He finished third in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn before running ninth in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby.  He came back two weeks after that race to finish third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Chances of Winning – Poor.  With just the one lifetime victory, coming ten months ago, Mr. Z has faced many runners in this race, finishing behind most in those starts.  His running style won’t have him too far off the early pace, but he is likely to back up through the field in the stretch.

18. American Pharoah – Trainer: Bob Baffert, Jockey: Victor Espinoza (M/L Odds 5-2)

CredentialsA winner of four of five lifetime starts (all victories in stakes races), American Pharoah won the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and Grade 1 Front Runner as a two-year-old.  At three, he has won the Grade 2 Rebel and Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.

Chances of WinningGood. I don’t give him as an excellent for a few reasons. First, the post.  He will have to work a bit to clear off of some horses but runs the risk of being hung 4-5 wide entering the first turn.  He has made only two starts this year after missing the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall due to injury.  He hasn’t done anything wrong either.  His running style will put him close to the pace, but post is important as he will need to be a part of the top three-four runners heading into the first turn.

19. Upstart – Trainer: Rick Violette, Jr., Jockey: Jose Ortiz (M/L Odds 15-1)

Credentials – A three-time winner in seven career starts, Upstart has never run worse than third.  This year he won the Grade 2 Holy Bull and crossed the line first in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth before being disqualified and placed second.  Most recently he finished second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby behind Materiality.

Chances of WinningGood. Even though Materiality defeated Upsart in the Florida Derby, I like Upstart’s upside better.  His win in the Holy Bull was solid, despite being wide in the turn.  He was victim to a terrible DQ call in the Fountain of Youth as he was clearly the best.  Much like Materiality I didn’t like how he finished in the Florida Derby.  In the Kentucky Derby, I feel he will settle mid-pack early and be picking off horses late.

20. Far Right – Trainer: Ron Moquett, Jockey: Mike Smith (M/L Odds 30-1)

Credentials – A winner three times from nine career starts, Far Right won the Smarty Jones and Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.  Most recently he finished second to American Pharoah in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Chances of Winning – Poor.  Far Right would need a dream trip to win the Derby.  His running style will have him near the back of the pace early and he will require a heated pace ahead that falls apart completely to win.  From post 20 he has almost no choice but to drop to the rail from the break and hope for racing luck.  He was able to get up for second in the Arkansas Derby, but all in there were in a different class to American Pharoah on that day.

My Order of Finish for the Kentucky Derby:

Winner –#8 - Dortmund

2nd – #12 - International Star

3rd – #7 - El Kabeir

4th – #10 - Firing Line

5th – #19 - Upstart

Wagering Stretegies

The Kentucky holds so many unknowns with 20 starters and likely traffic issues early.  I am selecting Dortmund to win the Derby but will give consideration to International Star, El Kabeir, Upstart, and Firing Line at longer odds. With $200, my wagers would be:

$20 Win & Place - Dortmund ($40)

$5 Exacta Box – Dortmund, International Star, El Kabeir, Upstart, Firing Line ($100)

$2 Trifecta Box – Dortmund, International Star, El Kabeir, Upstart, Firing Line, American Pharoah ($60)

Good luck with whomever you choose to wager on in the Kentucky Derby.  For details on where to wager, visit www.Hawthorneracecourse.com as Hawthorne and all Club Hawthorne OTB locations will be open early.  Can’t make it to the track, visit www.Xpressbet.com to place your Derby Wagers.

Glanville: Fall to Spring - A player’s offseason changes meaning with each changing season

glanville_oct_21.jpg
USA TODAY

Glanville: Fall to Spring - A player’s offseason changes meaning with each changing season

A few weeks after the we (the Cubs) were eliminated from the 2003 playoffs, I got a phone call from my college professor. Since it was officially the off-season, I was in the early stages of a break from following a pocket schedule to tell me where to be every day for nearly eight months.

But this was a man I could not refuse. I chose my college major to go into his field of transportation engineering and he was calling because he needed a teaching assistant to accompany him on his trip to South Africa.

One minute I could barely move off of my couch in my Chicago apartment after losing Game 7 against the Marlins. The next minute, I would be standing within miles of the Southern most point in Africa at the Cape of Good Hope. Why not? I needed the distraction so I agreed to go.

The offseason is its own transition. Leaving the regimen of routine, of batting practice and bus times, to an open ended world that you have to re-learn again. When I finished my first full major league season in 1997, I lived in Streeterville at the Navy Pier Apartments.

That offseason, I decided to stay an extra month in Chicago only to wake up panicked for the first two weeks because I thought I was missing stretch time for a home day game. A major league schedule becomes etched in your DNA after a while.

It is also a time that you get to reflect. The regular season does not give you a moment to really get perspective on what was just accomplished, what it all means, what you would change. I always joked about the T-shirt I wanted to a sell that listed all of the things a major league player figures out during the off-season. From the perfect swing to the ex-girlfriend you need to un-break-up with next week.

It all becomes so clear when a 96 MPH fastball isn’t coming at you.

For years, I would arrange a training program to follow, but I quickly learned that I had to mix it up. There was only so much repetition I could stand in the off-season. So some years, I moved to the site of spring training and worked out early with the staff, other years I found a spot at home where I grew up or wherever I played during the season, to train.

I was single when I played, but now with a family, I have a better understanding of the challenges my teammates would express as they were re-engaging as a daily father again after this long absentee existence.

To keep it fresh and spicy, when I got older in the game, I enrolled in a dance studio and took a winter of dance lessons. Salsa, Foxtrot, Rumba, you name it. On Thursdays we had to dance for an hour straight, changing partners in the room every song change. Dancing with the Stars had nothing on me.

Of course, not every offseason is fun and games. There were years when I wasn’t sure I would have a job the next year, or I was in the throes of a trade rumor. In 1997, I was traded from the Cubs to the Phillies two days before Christmas. In 2002, my father passed away on the last game of the season, leading the offseason to be a time of mourning.

By my final season in 2005, I thought I was officially on my couch forever. I was going to fade away into oblivion like many players do. No fanfare, the phone just would stop ringing and I would just let the silence wash over me. The Yankees had called earlier in that off-season, acting like they were doing me a favor which I turned down, then they called back later with a more open tone, seeing me as a potential key piece in their outfield with Bernie Williams slowing down quite a bit at that point.

I did get off that couch for that call, only to get released the last week of camp, so I was back on the couch, with a fiancé and some extra salt in the wounds after that final meeting with Brian Cashman and Joe Torre, who boxed me into the coaches office to tell me I was released. Released? Come on. Never had that happen before.

The Cubs players will go through all of this if they have the good fortune of playing a long time. The wave of uncertainty, the meaning of age in this game spares no one. Each offseason is a time to reset, a period where you get away, seemingly adrift from the game, then as spring gets closer, the shoreline comes up in the horizon once again, magnetically drawing you to its shores for another season.

Amazingly, you don’t always know your age and what it has done to your body. 34 can’t be that old, right? I can still run, or throw 95. Then those 23-year-olds in camp are the wake up call, or maybe you are that 23-year-old and can’t believe your locker is next to Ryne Sandberg’s.

Then you blink, and you are advising Jimmy Rollins about etiquette and realize you have become that guy, the seasoned vet, preaching about locker room respect.

For the 2018 Cubs, they fell short of their goal to repeat their 2016 magic. Failed to meet their singular destination that meant success over all else. Yet, those who come back for 2019, will not be the same player, the same person, that left the locker room at the close this season. They will have grown, changed, aged, wizened up, rehabbed, hardened. All of which means that new perspective is the inevitable part of this time off, whether you like it or not.

Baseball is a game that has this unique dynamic. The highest intensity rhythm of any sport. Every day you are tested. You are pushed to the brink by sheer attrition. According to my teammate Ed Smith, who was playing third base at the time when Michael Jordan reached third, Jordan, after playing well over 100 games in a row, said to him “Man, I have never been this tired in my entire life.”

The grind.

Then it stops on a dime. Season over. Only on baseball’s terms.

But you may be granted another spring. Another crack at it. Until one day, the baseball winter never ends and its time for you to plant your own spring.

Four takeaways: Blackhawks on wrong side of history in loss to Lightning

cam_ward_ap.jpg
AP

Four takeaways: Blackhawks on wrong side of history in loss to Lightning

Here are four takeaways from the Blackhawks' 6-3 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning at the United Center on Sunday:

1. Blackhawks on wrong side of history 

Earlier this year the Blackhawks made history by appearing in five straight overtime games to start the season, something no team in NBA, NFL, NHL or MLB history has ever done.

But Sunday they found themselves on the wrong side of it after allowing 33 shots on goal in the second period alone. It tied a franchise high for most given up in a single period — March 4, 1941 vs. Boston — and is the most an NHL team has allowed since 1997-98 when shots by period became an official stat.

"It's pretty rare to be seeing that much work in a period," said Cam Ward, who had a season-high 49 saves. "But oh man, I don't even know what to say to be honest. It's tough. We know that we need to be better especially in our home building, too. And play with some pride and passion. Unfortunately, it seemed like it was lacking at times tonight. The old cliche you lose as a team and overall as a team we weren't good enough tonight."

Said coach Joel Quenneville: "That was a tough, tough period in all aspects. I don’t think we touched the puck at all and that was the part that was disturbing, against a good hockey team."

2. Alexandre Fortin is on the board

After thinking he scored his first career NHL goal in Columbus only to realize his shot went off Marcus Kruger's shin-pad, Fortin made up for it one night later and knows there wasn't any question about this one.

The 21-year-old undrafted forward, playing in his his fifth career game, sprung loose for a breakaway early in the first period and received a terrific stretch pass by Jan Rutta from his own goal line to Fortin, who slid it underneath Louis Domingue for his first in the big leagues. It's his second straight game appearing on the scoresheet after recording an assist against the Blue Jackets on Saturday.

"It's fun," Fortin said. "I think it would be a little bit more fun to get your first goal [while getting] two points for your team, but I think we ... just have to [turn the page to the] next chapter and just play and be ready for next game."

3. Brandon Saad's most noticeable game?

There weren't many positives to take away from this game, but Saad was certainly one of them. He had arguably his best game of the season, recording seven shot attempts (three on goal) with two of them hitting the post (one while the Blackhawks were shorthanded).

He was on the ice for 11 shot attempts for and five against at 5-on-5, which was by far the best on his team.

"He started OK and got way better," Quenneville said of Saad. "Had the puck way more, took it to the net a couple of times, shorthanded."

4. Special teams still a work in progress

The Blackhawks entered Sunday with the 29th-ranked power play and 25th-ranked penalty kill, and are still working to get out from the bottom of the league in both departments. In an effort to change up their fortunes with the man advantage, the Blackhawks split up their two units for more balance.

They had four power-play opportunities against Tampa Bay and cashed in on one of them, but it didn't matter as it was too little, too late in the third period — although they did become the first team to score a power-play goal against the Lightning this season (29 chances).

"Whether we're looking for balance or we're just looking for one to get hot, I think our power play has been ordinary so far," Quenneville said before the game. "We need it to be more of a threat."

Four more minor penalties were committed by the Blackhawks, giving them eight in the past two games. That's one way they can shore up the penalty kill, by cutting back on taking them.