Baseball's fate in Korea, Japan shows best- and worst-case scenarios for MLB

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As Major League Baseball waits for the conditions to be right to see if it can salvage its 2020 season, the fate of baseball in two Asian nations has illustrated the best- and worst-case scenarios.

The prime minister of South Korea gave the go-ahead for the KBO, the country’s top pro league, to begin its season without the presence of fans. According to a report, teams are preparing for games to get going May 1.

South Korea has been one of the success stories during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, thanks to widespread testing, and the number of new reported cases in that country was in single digits on Saturday.

A much different situation is playing out in Japan, however, where after an initial peak and decline, there has been a second wave of infections that is threatening to overwhelm the country’s health-care system.

Nippon Professional Baseball announced Friday that there is no chance of its season beginning in May, with no new targeted date for Opening Day. The top pro league in Japan started playing practice games some time ago, only for multiple players on one team to test positive, forcing another pause.

While the United States is long past the point of having the success South Korea has experienced in slowing the spread of the virus, these outcomes reveal the best- and worst-case scenarios facing Major League Baseball.

RELATED: Steve Cishek: 'I don't think I could' play season quarantined from family

Ideally, the U.S. would have widespread and readily available testing in the coming months, allowing the league to move forward with one of its discussed plans to possibly quarantine the entire season in Arizona with no fans present, and regularly test players and all involved in putting on a baseball season. Such an outcome, of course, would be contingent on a significant improvement of the situation across the country, with the league pulling no tests or medical resources away from the general population.

However, one of many potential dangers with that plan is a mirror image of what happened in Japan. If a player tests positive for COVID-19 in a quarantined environment, would the entire league have to shut down for two weeks or more in the middle of play?

While eliminating the presence of fans would obviously allow the league to slow the spread of the virus, every game would approach “large gathering” status when taking into account the players, coaches, training staff, front office staff, transportation staff, hotel staff, stadium staff, security staff, food workers and the small armies of people required to broadcast the game on TV.

As Japan has proven, timing is critical. And as White Sox catcher James McCann said recently: “If we rush things, we possibly create a recipe for disaster.”

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