Despite extraordinarily good luck in 2019, Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada will stay aggressive

Share

Tim Anderson didn't walk much at all last season. Yoan Moncada saw his walk numbers plummet.

And they had fantastic seasons.

Certainly no one is suggesting the breakout campaigns from the guys on the left side of the White Sox infield came because they didn't walk. But it's important to note that Anderson doesn't win a batting title and Moncada doesn't emerge as the team's best all-around hitter without an aggressive approach.

As the two young building blocks of the White Sox future continue their developments at the major league level, plenty have suggested they alter that approach: Walk more, make opposing pitchers work, help your teammates by seeing more pitches.

If you're waiting to see a more patient approach from Anderson and Moncada in 2020, don't hold your breath. They're staying aggressive.

"Why not?" Anderson said in the early days of spring training. "It got me the batting title. So, why not? I’m not going to change anything."

"I’m going to keep the same approach I had last year," Moncada said through team interpreter Billy Russo. "I’m going to try to strike every pitch that’s in the strike zone. That’s what I did last year. I got very good results. I’m not planning to change that. If I see a good pitch to hit, I’m going to swing it."

Well, that seems rather definitive.

Of course, the question isn't so much about whether those approaches worked for those guys in 2019. Of course they did. Going up to the plate and swinging produced extraordinary results.

But that's what has some worried: just how extraordinary those results were.

Enter BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. It's a hitter's batting average when you remove strikeouts from the equation. The higher the number, the better a hitter is doing at hitting 'em where they ain't. But the higher the number, the greater luck a hitter is seen to hit into, and good luck is something that's very difficult to carry over from one season to the next.

Anderson and Moncada had two of the highest single-season BABIPs in baseball history last season. Anderson, who raised his batting average nearly .100 points, had a .399 BABIP. Moncada, who emerged from Strikeout City in 2018, had an even higher BABIP, at .406.

Aside from being the two highest BABIPs in the majors last season, they were two of the eight highest BABIPs in a single season in the last 70 years. Since 1950, only Hall of Famer Rod Carew registered a single-season BABIP north of Moncada's, a .408 mark in 1977. Only five were above .400 in the last seven decades. Anderson, one point shy of that distinction, matched two others with his .399 number.

Here's the since-1950 leaderboard:

1. Carew, .408, 1977
2. Moncada, .406, 2019
3. Jose Hernandez, .404, 2002
4. Manny Ramirez, .403, 2000
4. Roberto Clemente, .403, 1967
6. Anderson, .399, 2019
6. Ichiro Suzuki, .399, 2004
6. Andres Galarraga, .399, 1993

In other words, it's very rare to hit into that kind of good fortune. So what happens if that good fortune goes away in 2020?

Considering some of the names on that list, having an extremely high BABIP is not some harbinger of career doom. Carew and Clemente are in the Hall of Fame, Suzuki will be soon, and Ramirez should be, in this writer's opinion, though certainly others have differing ones.

But even those all-time greats couldn't make BABIPs north of .390 a regular occurrence. What they did was a baseball maxim old as time: They controlled what they could control.

Selectivity is something you can control. Luck is not. Hence why there are those clamoring for Anderson and Moncada to refine their approach.

The White Sox don't want them to change their approaches, to overhaul them. But grabbing a thesaurus provides some things the White Sox do want and expect to see.

"You're always going to have to adapt," manager Rick Renteria said. "There's no way that anybody can think we went through the course of the winter and that clubs — knowing that some of these young men are obviously coming back — that they're not trying to devise a plan of attack that would stifle some of the successes that they've had.

"That's the little cat and mouse game. As a hitter, you're going to have to continue to make those adjustments. So hopefully we can stay ahead of the curve."

Renteria said he plans to stack Anderson and Moncada at the top of his lineup in one order or the other, though with Moncada telling everyone he feels most comfortable batting second, it makes sense Anderson would lead off and Moncada would bat behind him.

But an aggressive approach isn't the stereotypical one at the top of the order. Getting on base via the walk and seeing as many pitches as possible ahead of your big boppers is more traditional.

Certainly with what they were able to do in 2019, Anderson and Moncada have earned the opportunity to start the season as the White Sox 1-2 punch. But their staying there over the course of a six-month season might depend on whether they remain productive in the face of changes to their fortunes.

Anderson, unsurprisingly, is not worried about being able to carry over his positive results from one season to the next, pointing to his extended absence with a sprained ankle last summer. Before the injury, he hit .317 with a .342 on-base percentage. After missing almost the entire month of July, he hit .357 with a .376 on-base percentage en route to the batting title.

"It was more for people around me to see what type of person I am," Anderson said. "'Can he continue to do what he was doing before he got hurt?' That closed those people’s mouths with coming out how I returned from that injury to go on and miss the All-Star (Game) but win the batting title.

"You can’t vote on that, you have to earn that and that was enough for me."

That's not to say either player isn't looking for improvements, to achieve new goals and keep getting better. Moncada said he wants to steal more bases. Plenty of emphasis continues to be placed on Anderson's defense, particularly his errors, a stat he led the majors in last season.

But when it comes to swinging the bat, staying aggressive is the plan for both players. And, to quote Anderson, why not? It sure did work in 2019.

"When he swings the bat, he puts a ball in play," Renteria said of Anderson. "And his success rate is pretty high. Is it sustainable over the next 15 or 20 years? I don't know. But hitters evolve over time.

"I'm not looking for him to change. If he starts, based on his at-bats, laying off of particular pitches, if it ultimately leads to another walk or things of that nature, sure, we welcome it. But I'm not going to try to just overhaul him after having done what he did."

Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of your teams and stream the White Sox easily on your device.
Contact Us