Looking at Lucas Giolito's breakout season by the numbers

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Yesterday, Lucas Gioito was named the American League pitcher of the month for May. 

In fact, Giolito is the first pitcher to have the highest ERA in the Majors one year (6.13 in 2018), then win a Pitcher of the Month award the following year since Bobby Witt, who had a 5.14 ERA in 1989 and a Pitcher of the Month award (co-winner with Chuck Finley) in July 1990. 

He’s the first White Sox pitcher to win American League Pitcher of the Month honors since Chris Sale in June 2015; first Sox righty since Jake Peavy in April 2012.

In fact, his May 2019 was quite a bit better than his May 2018. Giolito was one of 60 pitchers to make at least 6 starts in the month, and…

 

 

           W-L      ERA        IP    Hits    BB      K    HR     Opp Slashline      WHIP
'18 :    2-3       7.36     29.1      32      16       19      6       .283/.397/.513        1.636
'19 :    5-0       1.74     41.1      24      10       46      2       .169/.232/.232        0.823

And was one of only two of those 60 (with Aaron Nola) whose teams were undefeated in his starts. The White Sox were 6-0 in Giolito starts in May… 10-15 when anyone else started.

On the entire season, the White Sox are 3-24 when scoring 3 or fewer runs. And breaking down the starting pitchers in the games where the Sox scored 3 or fewer runs…

In Lucas Giolito starts:                    2-2

When anyone else starts:             1-22

But back to his excellent May…

Giolito is the first White Sox pitcher to finish any month** with 5+ wins, 0 losses, 40+ strikeouts, a sub-2.00 ERA and a sub 1.000 WHIP since Jim Kaat in Sept/Oct 1974. By the way, go look at what Kaat did from September 1 to the end of the season in 1974. Seven starts, six complete games and a 0.30 ERA in 60.2 innings. Unreal.

**September/October numbers are combined as are March/April in monthly splits.

Giolito has continued to move away from the breaking stuff. More changeups, more elevated 4-seam fastballs.

                                                2018       Mar-Apr 2019    May 2019

4-seam Fastball                 40%        56%                        55%

Sinker                                   20%          --                            --

Curve                                    10%        11%                          5%

Slider                                     15%        15%                        14%

Change                                 15%        18%                        26%

And it’s not just the change in stuff… there has been a change in velocity.

In his last start of April (April 17 vs Royals, the game he left with an injury), Giolito’s max velocity was 94.7

In his last start of May, (May 28 vs Royals), Giolito’s max velocity was 97.3

Giolito’s Home Run and Stolen Base totals have plummeted, though allowing fewer baserunners in general certainly has helped.

                                Innings                 Home Runs         Stolen Bases

2018                       173.1                     27                           26

2019                         67.1                     4                              1

About allowing fewer baserunners, the biggest drop has been in the walk category.

From 1906-present, here are the only White Sox pitchers with three straight starts with 9+ strikeouts and one or zero walks:

Chris Sale             June 19-30, 2015               (White Sox lost two of the three)

Lucas Giolito       May 23-June 2, 2019       (Giolito got the win in all three)

More on his excellent strikeout-to-walk improvement:

Giolito through his start on Sunday has 78 strikeouts and 20 walks.

Giolito’s 78th strikeout of 2019 was

  • On June 2
  • His 259th batter faced of the season
  • He had 20 walks at the time


Giolito’s 78th strikeout of 2018 was

  • On August 8
  • His 539th batter faced of the season
  • He had 68 walks at the time


Due to Giolito’s durability (7+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts – and the other one was a 5-inning rain-shortened complete game), his 48.2 innings pitched since the beginning of May leads the Majors.

And here we are. He’s off to a spectacular start in June – 1.03 ERA over his last 5 starts of May plus his first start of this month.

We’re about a third of the way through the season and Lucas Giolito looks like an ace – one who gets strikeouts and goes deep into games.

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