One analyst thinks Dylan Cease could make the Opening Day roster, but here's why that probably won't happen

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White Sox fans should definitely be excited when reading Jim Bowden's piece in The Athletic, one profiling 20 rookies who will have the biggest impact in baseball during the 2019 season.

Unsurprisingly, Eloy Jimenez is prominently featured, with Bowden touting Jimenez's light-tower power: "Jimenez has the ability to hit the ball from foul pole to foul pole and has the power to reach the upper decks." White Sox fans likely won't have to wait long to see that in action at Guaranteed Rate Field. Jimenez is expected to arrive in the major leagues at some point in the season's first few weeks.

But Jimenez isn't the only highly rated White Sox prospect on Bowden's list. The former general manager included Dylan Cease, as well, not really a surprise following Cease's terrific 2018 season that earned him the title of MLB Pipeline's minor league pitcher of the year. But here's something Bowden wrote that might raise a few eyebrows: "It won’t be long before Cease is a part of the White Sox’s starting rotation, and it could happen as early as Opening Day."

As things stand and given the White Sox recent handling of their prized prospects, Cease is very much not expected to be a part of the White Sox rotation on Opening Day, yet to pitch at the Triple-A level after making just 10 starts at Double-A Birmingham last year. There's no doubt he was remarkable there, finishing with a 1.72 ERA and 78 strikeouts in his 52.1 Double-A innings. He had a 2.40 ERA and 160 strikeouts in 124 innings when you add in his early season numbers from Class A Winston-Salem.

But the White Sox are expected to take a similar approach to Cease as they did with Michael Kopech in 2018. Kopech had logged just 15 innings at Triple-A Charlotte after getting promoted late in his dominant 2017 campaign and then ended up staying there much of last season as he struggled for a decent stretch in the middle of the year. He ended up making his big league debut in late August before requiring Tommy John surgery that will wipe out his 2019 season.

Cease could be on a similar track, starting the season at Triple-A and being given the opportunity to either dominate or struggle at that level — Kopech ended up doing both — before making his way to the majors. And there are two reasons that's the most likely way the White Sox will proceed. One, it would continue their approach during this rebuilding project of giving prospects ample time to develop in the minor leagues. Fans were begging for sooner promotions for Kopech and Jimenez both last year, but the White Sox were patient. Two, even if the White Sox do land Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, their playoff outlook might still not be great. So what would be the point of rushing Cease to the big leagues in a season where they might not even contend for a postseason berth?

Also, Rick Hahn talked about Cease following a similar path to Kopech earlier this offseason.

“That's very possible,” Hahn said back in November during the GM Meetings. “I think the only possible concern or the only thing holding back Dylan Cease right now is the innings base he has under him. Right now his career high in innings was 2018, about 125-ish. So you can't necessarily project him, 'Oh he's going to go throw 180 in the big leagues next year.' So that's really the only sense of caution on him.

“I think it's fair to compare where he is now to where Kopech was a year ago in terms of coming to spring training with the stuff, with everything he's accomplished, with the stuff he has and the ability to compete at the big league level. It's just a matter of going to start that process and what we can expect once we do.”

All this being said, of course, the possibility exists that Cease could be so good he changes the White Sox plans. And the possibility exists the White Sox plans can change, too. Cease could dominate in spring training (like he did last year) and show the team he can handle being thrown in the major league waters — something Kopech, because of performance, and Jimenez, because of injury, couldn't do last spring. And the White Sox could land Machado or Harper and look at a weak American League Central — and not many wild-card contenders across the Junior Circuit — and see an opportunity for a playoff run a year earlier than anticipated. A couple other moves might need to be made in addition to a Machado/Harper signing, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. And Cease would almost certainly make the White Sox rotation better.

Hahn has long insisted that the White Sox will not rush the development of their highly rated prospects for any kind of short-term benefit at the big league level, and it would be completely expected for them to take that approach with Cease, just like they did with Kopech and Jimenez. And so for that reason, it seems rather unlikely that Cease will be pitching on the South Side in April. But if he can continue the success he had at Double-A at Triple-A, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him hit the bigs before the end of the 2019 season.

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