KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Everybody likes to ask the same question this time of year: How many wins?
In the days leading up to Opening Day, I and everyone else that pays attention to the White Sox have answered that question with best guesses and informed predictions. But all of them have one thing in common. No matter the number, the White Sox win total is not expected to be enough to clinch a postseason berth.
And the truth is that expectation exists because the White Sox are still in the thick of their rebuilding process. And these things take time. On the other side of town, the Cubs had five straight fifth-place finishes before their ascent in 2015. Down in Texas, the Houston Astros averaged 104 losses for four straight seasons before making the playoffs in 2015, then missed the postseason again in 2016 before their championship season in 2017.
Rebuilds take time.
So if the White Sox are most likely destined for another season of development at the major and minor league levels, what does success look like?
Well, for starters, the players in that White Sox clubhouse don't want to hear about patience and another rebuilding season any more than any anxious member of the fan base. In the early days of spring training, the voices in the clubhouse were talking about focusing on the present as much as the future, about winning now.
"There’s a point in time where it’s s**t or get off the pot, man. I mean, there’s a point where you’ve got to make a turn," Carlos Rodon, the team's Opening Day starter here in Kansas City, told Our Chuck Garfien last month. "I’ve been on teams like this before, not in the big leagues, but during my younger baseball career, where they’re OK or weren’t good at all, and there’s a point where the team turned and we became great or just winners. We just came together and it just happened. It’s got to happen soon. We’ve got to start picking up some ground. This is about winning, and I get the whole ‘there’s a process to winning,' and I agree a hundred percent with Rick (Hahn), but it’s time."
MLB
"We're about winning here," starting pitcher Lucas Giolito said last month. "It's not about trying to win. It's not 'Oh we're feeling it out.' It's about winning now. That's pretty much it. That's the most fun, when you're winning. That's the mindset now. I'm all about it."
"I want to win every day," shortstop Tim Anderson said at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. "I'm not worried about the future, I'm worried about right now."
And so success, for these players, looks like wins. And there's reason to believe there will be a significant increase in those after the White Sox won just 62 games a season ago. Top-ranked prospect Eloy Jimenez has arrived from the minor leagues and should make a big impact in the middle of the order. Offseason additions in the bullpen (Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera) and in the lineup (Jon Jay and Yonder Alonso) have undoubtedly made this roster better. Dylan Cease, the No. 3 prospect in the organization, should arrive before the season concludes, providing a summertime jolt to the starting rotation. If Rodon, Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez can find more consistency on that starting staff, if Anderson and Daniel Palka can improve their batting averages and on-base percentages after putting up some good power numbers last season, if the White Sox can take advantage of playing against the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers a combined 38 times.
In other words, a much improved win total would not be unexpected. But if it's not enough to keep the season spinning into October, can the season be considered a success? How much importance should even be placed on that win-loss record?
"Regardless of what the win total ends up being at the end of the year, how we get there is going to be more important than that actual total," general manager Rick Hahn said at SoxFest back in January. "If it’s short-term veteran stopgaps that are carrying the bulk of the water and getting us to a higher win total, that’s great and makes for a more enjoyable summer, but it doesn’t necessarily reinforce the long-term progress. If the win total happens to be a little bit lower but some of these young players are taking that necessary step forward, then a year from now we can sit here and be even more optimistic about what the future holds.
"How we get there’s going to be almost if not more important than the actual win total."
Hahn is among those who expect a better season than the one that came before it, for all the reasons listed above and more. But this is still a rebuilding team looking to create a sustainable, perennial championship contender. And to do that, the development is going to have to continue at every level of the organization.
That was the message at the start of last year, too, though with the caveat that 2018 would likely be "the toughest year of the rebuild." And it turned out to be pretty tough, not just because of the 100 losses but because of, to borrow a phrase, the way the White Sox got there. Yoan Moncada struggled mightily in his first full season in the major leagues, striking out 217 times. Giolito did the same, leading baseball in ERA and WHIP and the American League in walks. Rodon had a horrid month of September that took some of the luster off his stellar summer stretch. And then there was the bad luck: significant injuries to prospects headlined by Michael Kopech arriving in the majors and then almost immediately needing Tommy John surgery.
2019 has to be better.
Playing the numbers game is fun. Predictions are fun. But whether the White Sox win 64 or 74 or 84 games during the 2019 season, Hahn is correct in saying that how they get there will be more important.
Success in 2019 looks like a bounce-back year for Moncada, all that offseason work paying off and all that springtime success carrying over to production levels expected from a player once ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the game.
Success in 2019 looks like last summer's brilliant stretch from Rodon ironed out into a more consistent performance throughout the course of six months and, finally, a season of full health for the former No. 3 pick in the draft.
Success in 2019 looks like Giolito figuring things out and getting all the talk about how great he feels throwing the baseball to turn into positive results, a redemption of sorts for a guy with sky-high expectations when he arrived in the majors.
Success in 2019 looks like a huge rookie year from Jimenez, which his extreme self confidence and his team's confidence in him makes seem entirely possible.
Success in 2019 looks like a normal Jose Abreu season not affected by uncharacteristic slumps or fluke injuries, a normal year that could feature a new contract to keep the beloved first baseman a part of this organization as the days get brighter.
Success in 2019 looks like Anderson putting the days of errors behind him and turning into what he wants to be, one of the best shortstops in the game, all the while blossoming into a leader for this young team.
Success in 2019 looks like Cease building on a fabulous 2018 campaign and reaching the big leagues with as much hype as Kopech did last season and Jimenez is doing now. It looks like Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal and Micker Adolfo and Zack Collins turning in solid years in the minor leagues that put them on the doorstep of the majors and make a transition to contending as soon as 2020 look all the more realistic.
None of that requires a specific amount of wins.
Fans want to know a number right now, want to know if this White Sox team will be worth watching this season, and that's fine. But if all those things happen in 2019, even if the win total isn't playoff caliber, the only number of import will be 2020. Because if all those things happen in 2019, then this rebuilding project will be on the fast track to transitioning to contention mode.
And reaching that point? That's what success would look like for the White Sox this season.
Click here to download the new MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of your teams and stream the White Sox easily on your device.