White Sox free agent focus: Zack Wheeler could be an ideal fit

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Baseball free agency is heating up as the weather gets colder. This week we are breaking down 10 potential free-agent targets for the White Sox ahead of the Winter Meetings.

Zack Wheeler, RH SP, Mets

Age: 29

2019 salary: $5,975,000

2019 stats: 195.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 195 K, 50 BB, 196 hits (22 HR)

What Wheeler would bring to the White Sox

Wheeler’s resume is one of the more unusual ones on the market. His injury history is certainly a concern, but the lack of mileage on his arm could be viewed as a positive.

Wheeler made his MLB debut as a 23-year-old in 2013 and showed a lot of promise in his first two seasons with the Mets. He posted a 3.42 ERA as a rookie in 100 innings and improved his strikeout, walk and home run rates in 2014.

Then, he had Tommy John surgery just before the 2015 season. Setbacks during his recovery cost him 2016 as well. When Wheeler returned in 2017, he was limited to 86.1 innings and had a 5.21 ERA.

When he did get all the way back from injury, Wheeler was really good. Most of the strength of his resume as a free agent comes in the past two years.

In 2018, Wheeler had a 3.31 ERA in 182.1 innings with 179 strikeouts and 55 walks. That season included a lights-out 1.68 ERA in the second half.

Last year, he posted a 3.96 ERA in 195.1 innings (a career-high). His strikeout rate and walk rate were better than the year before, but he allowed 196 hits and 22 home runs, both career-highs.

His arsenal is built around a mid-to-high 90s fastball and a changeup/splitfinger, which broadly sounds familiar to Lucas Giolito.

Wheeler’s resume isn’t cut and dry. He’s shown some success when healthy, but durability concerns remain despite him making 60 starts the last two seasons. Those concerns are fair when considering Wheeler’s expected price tag.

The White Sox are in need of pitching depth and Wheeler is probably the best realistic option on the market. If Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are out of their price range, Wheeler could be attainable while also forming a potentially very strong top three with Giolito and Michael Kopech.

“He’s a 1A or a 2 with the potential to be more," SNY Mets reporter Andy Martino said of Wheeler on an episode of the White Sox Talk Podcast.

What it would take to get him

A somewhat reasonable comparison for Wheeler in terms of recent free-agent contracts is Boston's Nathan Eovaldi. Last December, Eovaldi signed a four-year, $68 million contract. He was nine months younger than Wheeler is now, but also had a recent Tommy John surgery.

Eovaldi missed all of the 2017 season for his second TJS (his first came in high school), but had a solid 2018 season, including a stint to close the year with the Red Sox where he had a 3.33 ERA in 54 innings. Like Wheeler, injuries have led to up and down performance. Eovaldi has had more injury problems than Wheeler, but durability has been a concern with him as well. Eovaldi had one year (2014) when he approached 200 innings (199.2). His second-highest inning total was 154.1 in 2015.

With all the pock marks on Eovaldi's resume, he still received a big contract. It's easy to argue Wheeler's track record is better than Eovaldi's, although there are similarities.

Using Eovaldi as a benchmark and going up from there, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Wheeler approach $20 million per year over four or five years.

Why it's plausible for the White Sox

The White Sox need pitching and Wheeler is a good free-agent pitcher. He won't get top-of-the-line money like Cole or Strasburg, which should keep the White Sox in contention. If Strasburg re-signs with Washington and Cole heads home to California or takes big money from the Yankees, Wheeler might sneak under the radar to the White Sox.

While it would likely take a record contract from the White Sox to sign Wheeler, the team already broke that record this offseason when they signed Yasmani Grandal to a four-year, $73 million contract. The White Sox also have a reputation for not signing pitchers to long-term deals. If Wheeler wanted a fifth year on his deal, would the White Sox balk at that?

There will be plenty of competition for Wheeler, but the Mets might not be major players. They traded for Marcus Stroman in a move that many thought was made to replace Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is still on the Mets. Does that mean the Mets don't have room for Wheeler anymore?

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