The latest NBC Sports Bracketology can be found here. That is where the seeds you see listed below are from.
This post will be updated throughout the day.
LOSERS
Illinois (RPI: 58, KenPom: 67, first four out): Coming off of a loss to Rutgers in their season finale, a loss that put the Illini on the wrong side of the bubble, John Groce’s club caught a break in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, playing a Michigan team that saw their plane skid off the runway on Wednesday evening and did not arrive in D.C. until three hours before the game, playing in their practice jerseys.
And the Illini were still run off the floor, falling by 20 points in a “lose and go to the NIT” game. The question we all want answered at this point is not whether or not this team will get a bid, but whether another year without a trip to the tournament costs John Groce his job.
USC (RPI: 41, KenPom: 62, No. 11 seed): The Trojans lost on Thursday night, falling by two to No. 3 UCLA in a game that USC had to win if they were going to end up getting through Selection Sunday without stress. As it stands, USC has a pair of top 20 wins, but both of them came at home. They’re 24-9 on the season with just one sub-100 loss, but they have a grand total of six top 100 and nine top 150 wins. They went 10-8 in the Pac-12, but they went just 1-6 against the top three teams in the league. At this point, USC is rooting against all of the bubble teams and hoping that they’ve done enough to sneak into a play-in game.
One x-factor that hasn’t really been mentioned with USC is Bennie Boatwright. He missed 17 games this season, and the Trojans went just 5-4 in Pac-12 play without him.
Iowa (RPI: 71, KenPom: 66, first four out): Illinois wasn’t the only Big Ten bubble team to take a beating on Thursday. The Hawkeyes lost to Indiana by 30 in a game they had to win to really have a chance of winding up on the right side of the bubble.
Marquette (RPI: 55, KenPom: 28, No. 9 seed): The Golden Eagles fell in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament, meaning that they are going to have to spend the next 72 hours sweating it out with the rest of the bubble teams. And frankly, I don’t think that Marquette has all that much to worry about. My guess is that they will safely be in the tournament, but as we’ve mentioned a number of times over the course of the last week, four of Marquette’s five best wins on the season came against Xavier and Creighton after the season-ending injuries to Edmond Sumner and Mo Watson. I don’t expect this to cost Marquette a bid -- maybe a seed line or two -- but it is a story line to keep an eye on.
Providence (RPI: 53, KenPom: 53, No. 10 seed): The Friars are going to be an interesting case on Selection Sunday. They do have six top 50 wins, but just three of those wins are top 40. They’ve also won just eight total top 100 games -- all of which are in the top 60 -- but they also lost three games to sub-100 competition, including two games to sub-200 teams. I think the Friars are going to be OK, but every game a bubble team wins is bad news for Ed Cooley.
WINNERS
Kansas State (RPI: 59, KenPom: 32, play-in game): Kansas State knocked off No. 9 Baylor on Thursday night, a win that puts the Wildcats in a really good position to get an at-large bid on Selection Sunday. I would not go as far as to call them a lock for the tournament. The Wildcats have a pair of wins over Baylor -- both of which came away from home -- but they have just four more top 100 wins to their name in addition to a pair of sub-100 losses. The Wildcats will advance to face West Virginia in the Big 12 semifinals.
Xavier (RPI: 33, KenPom: 44, play-in game): Xavier beat No. 18 Butler in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament. Welcome to the NCAA tournament, Muskies. You are no longer on the bubble because Chris Mack went rogue.
California (RPI: 56, KenPom: 58, next four out): Cal advanced to the semifinals of the Pac-12 tournament with a win over Utah on Thursday afternoon, and it sets the Bears up for a must-win against Oregon on Friday. Cal’s tournament résumé has one, glaring hole in it: the lack of elite wins. Their best win on the season is over USC, and the Trojans are only 41st in the RPI, needing to play their win into the Big Dance as well. To be frank, I’m not even sure a win over Oregon would be enough for Cal, but it would give them a real chance, and as of right now, that is not the case.
Middle Tennessee State (RPI: 38, KenPom: 52, No. 11 seed): The Blue Raiders avoided a loss in the Conference USA quarterfinals, which is good news because it means their dreams of getting the automatic bid is still alive. And rest assured, MTSU wants that automatic bid. They do not want to sweat out Selection Sunday with the four sub-100 losses they would have on their résumé if they were to take a loss in the Conference USA tournament.
Vanderbilt (RPI: 45, KenPom: 40, No. 11 seed): Vanderbilt blew out Texas A&M in their SEC tournament opener, meaning that they have just about played their way into the Big Dance. If they beat Florida on Friday, the Commodores will likely find themselves dancing. If they don’t, Vandy will remain one of the most fascinating bubble teams in the country.
Seton Hall (RPI: 44, KenPom: 54, No. 10 seed): Seton Hall beat Marquette on Thursday afternoon at Madison Square Garden, a win that should lock up their at-large status. The Pirates probably would have been on the right side of the bubble either way.
