Vaughn Dalzell predicts the outcome of a Big 12 bout between Kansas State at West Virginia.
Kansas State (-2) at West Virginia: O/U 141.0
Kansas State has not won at West Virginia since 2018 with the Mountaineers taking four straight home games over K-State, yet this is a -2 spread for Kansas State.
WVU brings back 14.2% of its minutes from a year ago (334th) and has an average of 1.81 years of DI experience (183rd) compared to 2.50 years of experience last year (68th) and 2.29 the year prior (80th).
This young WVU team has struggled with a 5-9 overall record and four home losses already. WVU is 5-4 at home, losing to Monmouth, St. John’s, Pitt, and Radford thus far, while beating five teams ranked outside the top 100.
The Mountaineers are shooting 29.3% from three (317th) not forcing turnovers (347th), and playing at the 274th-quickest average possession length on offense. Kansas State grinds its opponents down with its 33rd-ranked defense and 200th or slower tempo on both offense and defense.
The Wildcats have struggled with turnovers (344th at 23%) and three-point shooting (27.2%, 321st) away from home (five games), but get a quality opponent in West Virginia to right the ship. The five road or neutral court opponents Kansas State struggled with in turnovers and threes were USC, Providence, Miami (FL), LSU, and Wichita State -- all teams ranked ahead of WVU (K-State went 3-2), per Barttorvik and Kenpom.
I think Jerome Tang and Kansas State can break the losing streak at WVU with this team and that line reflects this. While the Wildcats aren’t as talented as last season’s team, Kansas State is much better than this West Virginia Mountaineers squad in its first year with a new head coach post the Bob Huggins era.
Give me Kansas State ML (-135) out to -3 if you prefer to play the spread. This opened at -118 and -120 odds.
Pick: Kansas State ML (1u)
Season Record: 15-8 (65.2%) +5.68 units
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