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Didn’t see that rally coming

Summer (usually) means downtime.

So what have you, college basketball fan, done with yours? Study up on next season? Plan out a road trip? Re-watch some of your favorite games?

Luckily for us, Ken Pomeroy spent some of it working on his in-game win probabilities and crunching his database for the 10 most unlikely wins in the 2010 season. (A win probability explainer is here and the next generation may be this). My guess is you missed most of ‘em. I know I did.

I saw No. 2 - Illinois at Clemson on Dec. 2 in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge - and remember thinking it was one of the wildest endings I’d seen in a while. According to Pomeroy, the Illini only had a 1.2 percent chance of winning when they were down 57-35 with 16:48 left in the game. Somehow, the Tigers lost, 76-74.

So it makes me bummed I missed No. 1: Fairfield’s 101-96 overtime win against George Mason in the CIT. (Ah, the CIT. No wonder I missed it.)

The biggest postseason comeback in D-I history saw the Stags erase a 63-36 deficit in the final 16:08. By scoring 65 points in their final 41 possessions, they managed to force overtime (barely). So who gets the credit/blame in that? Fairfield for the rally or George Mason for blowing it?

The moral? A rally is always possible. And if you reference this table, you’ll see just how probable it is.

Mike Miller’s also on Twitter, usually talkin’ hoops. Click here for more.