2019 Draft Kings High-Cap Productivity

Salary cap games are inherently challenging, especially when cap managers do their jobs correctly. In them, it’s not enough to accurately predict a handful of drivers who will be strong during the race, but one must be evaluated in terms of the impact their value has on the remainder of the game.

Scroll down to the bottom of this post for a moment and a few numbers jump out. The chart is broken into four groups that are similar to the ones we used throughout the season with the top level encompassing drivers who had an average cap of more than $10,000. Groups B, C, and D are broken into chunks made up of the next nine most expensive drivers each time.

One of the first things you will notice is that for the majority of the races, the Draft Kings cap manager got the top level correct. There were five drivers who averaged more than $10k and each week, there were either five of six drivers who were that expensive.

The first column is the overall rank in terms of total points earned during the season. With the single exception of Denny Hamlin, who had an average cap of just under the dividing line, the five most expensive drivers all earned the most points for the year.

Kyle Busch tops the list. He scored the most points on eight occasions, and the second-most eight other times. While he was the most expensive driver nearly every week, he was actually more than worth his cap with 64.6 per game. By comparison, Hamlin as the top performing driver under $10 had an average of 51 points-per-week. When Busch missed, it was often by a narrow margin and he earned top-five points 23 times in 36 races (64%).

Busch was outside the top 15 on six occasions, but since most of these came on wild card tracks like the road courses or aero-restricted superspeedways where players typically avoid the most costly drivers, the negative impact was minimal.  

Truex was a distant second in terms of top and second-most rankings. He earned the most points seven times and was second-best on four other occasions. He often minimized the damage, however, and scored an average of 60.6 points per week. Where it cost players $183 per point for Busch, Truex was a better value at $178 per point.

By contrast, the fourth-best points’ earner during the season earned nearly 10 less per week on average.

Kevin Harvick was the top earner only twice during the season: at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and in the November Texas Motor Speedway race. Harvick is one of the drivers that Draft Kings struggled to accurately predict, because the two races in which he earned maximum points were during weeks in which he commanded a relatively low cap of just over $10k.

On average, it cost players $219 for every point Harvick banked. Harvick was a better value on 1.5-milers, however. In 11 races on this track type it cost $167 per point compared to Busch’s $194 and Truex’s $168

The lead Team Penske drivers round out Group A.

Joey Logano was the top earner three times: at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Bristol Motor Speedway in the spring and at Michigan International Speedway in the summer. He earned the second-most one time at Vegas in the fall, but when he missed it was often by a much wider margin that the drivers listed above him and it cost $224 for each point that fantasy players banked.

Brad Keselowski was the top earner twice and both of these were on short tracks. He banked 199 points at Martinsville, but that weekend he commanded a cap of more than $12k. He earned 94.75 points at Bristol in the summer, night race, but the average cost of his points was $244.

Over the next few weeks, we will take a deep dive into the mid-cap and bargain drivers in the Draft Kings game.

 

Overall Rank	Driver	Avg. Game Rank	Total Points Earned	Avg. Points	Average Cap	Attempts	Group
Group A
1	Kyle Busch	8.2	2,327	64.6	$11,800	36	A
2	Martin Truex Jr.	9.8	2,183	60.6	$10,800	36	A
4	Kevin Harvick	10.4	1,829	50.8	$11,149	36	A
5	Joey Logano	12.3	1,647	45.7	$10,271	36	A
6	Brad Keselowski	13.9	1,540	42.8	$10,463	36	A
Group B
3	Denny Hamlin	11.6	1,835	51.0	$9,863	36	B
7	Kyle Larson	15.4	1,359	37.7	$9,406	36	B
8	Ryan Blaney	14.6	1,350	37.5	$9,100	36	B
9	Kurt Busch	15.8	1,298	36.1	$9,183	36	B
10	Chase Elliott	16.1	1,296	36.0	$9,637	36	B
14	Erik Jones	17.6	1,128	31.3	$8,571	36	B
18	Clint Bowyer	17.8	1,042	28.9	$8,780	36	B
20	Aric Almirola	18.7	1,011	28.1	$8,169	36	B
22	Jimmie Johnson	19.8	929	25.8	$8,014	36	B
Group C
11	Ryan Newman	15.0	1,272	35.3	$7,603	36	C
12	Alex Bowman	16.6	1,211	33.6	$7,951	36	C
13	William Byron	17.4	1,136	31.5	$7,483	36	C
15	Matt DiBenedetto	18.0	1,106	30.7	$6,969	36	C
16	Chris Buescher	17.5	1,103	30.6	$6,997	36	C
17	Daniel Suarez	17.8	1,066	29.6	$7,631	36	C
19	Paul Menard	17.5	1,042	28.9	$6,934	36	C
23	Austin Dillon	20.9	855	23.8	$7,157	36	C
28	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	22.7	736	20.5	$7,114	36	C
Group D
21	Ty Dillon	19.4	986	27.4	$6,254	36	D
24	Ryan Preece	22.9	817	22.7	$6,246	36	D
25	Corey LaJoie	23.4	804	22.3	$5,423	36	D
26	Ross Chastain	22.9	784	22.4	$5,606	35	D
27	Bubba Wallace	22.8	772	21.4	$5,951	36	D
29	Daniel Hemric	23.6	675	18.8	$6,369	36	D
31	Michael McDowell	25.0	630	17.5	$5,871	36	D
32	Landon Cassill	26.4	611	17.0	$5,154	36	D
33	David Ragan	26.8	513	14.2	$5,674	36	D
Part time drivers, sorted by average points
Rank	Driver	Avg. Rank	Total Points Earned	Avg. Points	Average Cap	Attempts	Group
1	Brendan Gaughan	14.8	157	39.2	$6,167	4	E
2	Tyler Reddick	13.5	78	39.0	$6,300	2	E
3	Justin Haley	19.3	111	36.9	$5,033	3	E
4	Ryan Sieg	18.0	32	32.0	$5,200	1	E
5	JH Nemechek	20.3	79	26.2	$5,533	3	E
6	Parker Kligerman	21.5	334	23.9	$5,231	14	E
7	JJ Yeley	24.6	305	21.8	$4,987	15	E
8	Matt Tifft	23.3	661	20.6	$5,503	33	E
9	BJ McLeod	27.9	280	15.5	$4,811	19	E
10	Reed Sorenson	28.6	368	14.7	$4,973	26	E
11	Joe Nemechek	28.5	87	14.5	$5,000	6	E
12	Garrett Smithley	30.1	168	12.9	$4,754	13	E
13	Quin Houff	29.3	216	12.7	$4,953	17	E
14	Bayley Currey	29.3	123	12.3	$4,817	12	E
15	Josh Bilicki	30.3	122	12.2	$4,822	10	E
16	Joey Gase	30.2	137	11.4	$4,842	12	E
17	Timmy Hill	31.1	77	11.0	$4,729	7	E
18	Austin Theriault	29.8	53	10.6	$4,771	7	E
19	Cody Ware	31.0	126	9.7	$4,833	16	E
20	Jeb Burton	29.5	19	9.5	$4,833	3	E
21	Kyle Weatherman	33.0	26	8.5	$4,800	4	E
22	Spencer Boyd	34.0	18	6.0	$4,633	3	E
23	Gray Gaulding	34.0	5	5.0	$4,700	1	E