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Cap Considerations

2019 Draft Kings Mid-Cap Productivity $8k-$10k

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: November 25, 2019, 3:51 pm ET

Winning Cap games is all about finding value.

While the drivers profiled in last week’s Draft Kings High-Cap Productivity article earned the most points and required the lowest cost per point on average, there was no way to fit them all on a roster. Group A drivers cost $10,271 or more on average. The average cost per point among these drivers was about $210.

By comparison, Group B drivers cost $8,635 and nearly all of them had an average price tag greater than $8,333, which was the median amount a player could spend on any driver. As a result it meant most weeks fantasy players had one or at the most two drivers activated at this level if they used some of their Cap allowance in Group A.

Group B drivers cost $265 per point on average.


Difficult decisions had to be made, but luckily Denny Hamlin was on hand several weeks to fill one of the gaps. Hamlin was priced at less than $10k 21 times during the 36 Cup weekends; on 13 occasions, he earned top-10 points. Once the tally was made at the end of the season, Hamlin it cost $193.39 for every point he banked. That was third-best in terms of productivity for a driver who commanded the sixth-highest cap on average.

Of course to truly be a great value, he needed to finish among the top 10 in points, which he did on 13 occasions. Six of these races ended with him banking the most, including New Hampshire, the August Michigan race, July’s Pocono event, Fall at Talladega, and the final races at Kansas and ISM Raceway.

Ryan Blaney was the second-best value at this level; He earned 37.5 points per week with an average cap of $9,100. Kyle Larson actually earned a few more points during the season with an average of 37.7 points per week, but was generally more expensive.

Blaney was never the top points earner during a week, but he came close twice. In the spring TicketGuardian 500k at Phoenix, he pocketed the second-most 76 points with a below average cap of $8,200. At Talladega in the fall, he was also second with 65.75 points earned on a cap of $9,000. Blaney peaked in value on three occasions with caps greater than $10k, but he earned top 10 points only once in those events.

Larson on the other hand, demanded more than $10k on five occasions. He earned top-10 points twice after doing so, but he was nominally productive twice. In fact, in one of the races when he was expensive, he lost 20 points in the finale at Homestead.

If a fantasy player caught Larson on the right week, he helped win the weekend contest. The No. 42 driver earned maximum points at Atlanta to start the season and at Dover in route to victory in the fall. At Atlanta he earned 89.5 points with a cap of $9,300. He was only $400 more expensive at Dover where he banked 114 points and his first victory in the Cup series in 2019.

Larson’s teammate Kurt Busch was the fourth-most productive driver at this level and he earned his position with consistency. Like Blaney, Busch was never able to earn maximum points, but he came close at Kentucky with his victory and at Darlington where he finished seventh. In the Blue Grass State, he earned 77.25 points with a cap of $9,300. He scored 90 points for $9,100 in the Southern 500.

Better still, most of Busch’s top-10 earnings came when he was moderately priced. He was priced at $10,700 at Bristol in the spring before earning the fourth-most points. But his other top-10 earnings came with a price tag of $9,500 or less.

Chase Elliott rounded out the top five at this level. His average cap value of $9,637 cost players $267.69 per point, which was only slightly better than Erik Jones ($273.83). The problem with Elliott was that on the occasions when he ran badly, he was terrible. In fact Elliott cost points on eight occasions. In two of his famously poor efforts during the playoffs he lost 26 points at Phoenix after draining players’ accounts of $10,200 and 27 points at Dover with a cap of $10,300.

 

Overall
Rank

Driver

Avg.
Game
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

Average
Cap

Cost
per
Point

Group A

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

Kyle Busch

8.2

2,327

64.6

$11,800

$182.66

2

Martin Truex Jr.

9.8

2,183

60.6

$10,800

$178.22

4

Kevin Harvick

10.4

1,829

50.8

$11,149

$219.46

5

Joey Logano

12.3

1,647

45.7

$10,271

$224.75

6

Brad Keselowski

13.9

1,540

42.8

$10,463

$244.46

Group B

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

Denny Hamlin

11.6

1,835

51.0

$9,863

$193.39

7

Kyle Larson

15.4

1,359

37.7

$9,406

$249.49

8

Ryan Blaney

14.6

1,350

37.5

$9,100

$242.67

9

Kurt Busch

15.8

1,298

36.1

$9,183

$254.37

10

Chase Elliott

16.1

1,296

36.0

$9,637

$267.69

14

Erik Jones

17.6

1,128

31.3

$8,571

$273.83

18

Clint Bowyer

17.8

1,042

28.9

$8,780

$303.81

20

Aric Almirola

18.7

1,011

28.1

$8,169

$290.71

22

Jimmie Johnson

19.8

929

25.8

$8,014

$310.62

Group C

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

Ryan Newman

15.0

1,272

35.3

$7,603

$215.38

12

Alex Bowman

16.6

1,211

33.6

$7,951

$236.64

13

William Byron

17.4

1,136

31.5

$7,483

$237.56

15

Matt DiBenedetto

18.0

1,106

30.7

$6,969

$227.00

16

Chris Buescher

17.5

1,103

30.6

$6,997

$228.66

17

Daniel Suarez

17.8

1,066

29.6

$7,631

$257.80

19

Paul Menard

17.5

1,042

28.9

$6,934

$260.25

23

Austin Dillon

20.9

855

23.8

$7,157

$300.71

28

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

22.7

736

20.5

$7,114

$347.02

Group D

 

 

 

 

 

 

21

Ty Dillon

19.4

986

27.4

$6,254

$228.25

24

Ryan Preece

22.9

817

22.7

$6,246

$275.15

25

Corey LaJoie

23.4

804

22.3

$5,423

$243.18

26

Ross Chastain

22.9

784

22.4

$5,606

$250.27

27

Bubba Wallace

22.8

772

21.4

$5,951

$278.08

29

Daniel Hemric

23.6

675

18.8

$6,369

$338.77

31

Michael McDowell

25.0

630

17.5

$5,871

$335.49

32

Landon Cassill

26.4

611

17.0

$5,154

$303.18

33

David Ragan

26.8

513

14.2

$5,674

$399.58

Part Time drivers,
sorted by avg. points

 

Rank

Driver

Avg.
Game
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

Average
Cap

Cost
per
Point

1

Brendan Gaughan

14.8

157

39.2

$6,167

$157.32

2

Tyler Reddick

13.5

78

39.0

$6,300

$161.54

3

Justin Haley

19.3

111

36.9

$5,033

$136.40

4

Ryan Sieg

18.0

32

32.0

$5,200

$162.50

5

JH Nemechek

20.3

79

26.2

$5,533

$211.18

6

Parker Kligerman

21.5

334

23.9

$5,231

$218.87

7

JJ Yeley

24.6

305

21.8

$4,987

$228.76

8

Matt Tifft

23.3

661

20.6

$5,503

$267.14

9

BJ McLeod

27.9

280

15.5

$4,811

$310.39

10

Reed Sorenson

28.6

368

14.7

$4,973

$338.30

11

Joe Nemechek

28.5

87

14.5

$5,000

$344.83

12

Garrett Smithley

30.1

168

12.9

$4,754

$368.53

13

Quin Houff

29.3

216

12.7

$4,953

$390.00

14

Bayley Currey

29.3

123

12.3

$4,817

$391.63

15

Josh Bilicki

30.3

122

12.2

$4,822

$395.25

16

Joey Gase

30.2

137

11.4

$4,842

$427.74

17

Timmy Hill

31.1

77

11.0

$4,729

$429.91

18

Austin Theriault

29.8

53

10.6

$4,771

$450.09

19

Cody Ware

31.0

126

9.7

$4,833

$498.25

20

Jeb Burton

29.5

19

9.5

$4,833

$508.74

21

Kyle Weatherman

33.0

26

8.5

$4,800

$565.71

22

Spencer Boyd

34.0

18

6.0

$4,633

$772.17

23

Gray Gaulding

34.0

5

5.0

$4,700

$940.00

 

2019 Draft Kings High-Cap Productivity

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.