Loading scores...
Cap Considerations

Daily Fantasy: Bristol (Sprng)

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Salary cap games are inherently volatile. When one driver runs away with the show, like Martin Truex Jr. did last week at Texas Motor Speedway, anyone who failed to put him on their roster is going to lose. Unfortunately, it is only going to get worse this weekend. Short tracks are notorious for one or a few drivers dominating the laps led and fastest laps run.

Normally, a player wants to avoid loading up on drivers who have qualified well because they run the risk of costing a lot of place-differential points. On a half-mile bullring like Bristol, however, it is difficult to lead laps after starting further back than 10th, so conventional wisdom is going to have to set aside.

This week, the front row might get avoided unless they have solid practice times on Saturday, but the dominant driver is going to come from on of the next four rows. And if the pole sitter or second-place starter practice well, they should be considered because the potential for laps led will wipe out the risk of losing place-differential points.

This season, two drivers have dominated the Draft Kings game. Kevin Harvick has earned an average of 84.9 points-per-race during the last six weeks, which equals 73.6 percent of the maximum awarded. Kyle Busch has 84.0 in the books on average, which equates to 72.9 percent. The next closest driver is Jimmie Johnson with 66.5 points per race.

A big reason for the domination of these two drivers is that they have led 47 percent of the total laps this season.

Normally, fastest laps run in practice are not particularly predictive of how a driver will finish. In fact, they may not be all that prophetic of how a driver will finish this week either, but the winning driver is not always the one who scored the most points in salary cap games.

In order make some room for the highest-priced drivers, one is going to have roll the dice on a less expensive racer. Ty Dillon should be one of the best values in the game. Last week with a modest salary of $6,300, he earned 35 points in the Duck Commander 500. He scored 42 points in the Good Sam 500 at Phoenix International Raceway while demanding only $5,400 from players. This week, he is back behind the wheel of the no. 14, which is one of the best cars in the field.

Experience counts at Bristol. This is a driver’s track that rewards laps around the circuit and that could make David Ragan at $5,700 very popular. He will not challenge for a top-15, probably not even a top-20, but if he qualifies poorly, he could earn positive place-differential points that make him worth starting.
 

Driver

Avg. Rank

Avg. Points

Avg. Salary Cap

Attempts

% of Max points

Kevin Harvick

2.40

84.92

$10,440.00

6

73.6%

Kyle Busch

8.80

84.04

$10,080.00

6

72.9%

Jimmie Johnson

5.00

66.54

$10,320.00

6

57.7%

Dale Earnhardt Jr./p>

5.80

61.33

$9,120.00

6

53.2%

Carl Edwards

8.40

58.79

$9,280.00

6

51.0%

Joey Logano

11.20

46.21

$10,100.00

6

40.1%

Brad Keselowski

12.20

44.42

$9,580.00

6

38.5%

Martin Truex Jr./p>

18.40

41.00

$8,940.00

6

35.5%

Kurt Busch

12.80

39.79

$9,260.00

6

34.5%

Ty Dillon

14.00

35.00

$5,500.00

3

32.7%

AJ Allmendinger

14.80

33.75

$6,300.00

6

29.3%

Austin Dillon

14.60

32.92

$6,720.00

6

28.5%

Chase Elliott

16.80

32.92

$8,060.00

6

28.5%

Matt Kenseth

17.40

32.71

$9,860.00

6

28.4%

Danica Patrick

20.00

26.58

$6,140.00

6

23.0%

Jamie McMurray

22.40

25.67

$7,700.00

6

22.3%

Landon Cassill

23.20

24.00

$5,520.00

6

20.8%

Denny Hamlin

19.40

23.58

$9,500.00

6

20.4%

Paul Menard

20.20

22.92

$6,480.00

6

19.9%

Clint Bowyer

21.00

21.50

$7,100.00

6

18.6%

Kyle Larson

24.20

21.33

$8,120.00

6

18.5%

David Ragan

22.20

22.10

$5,860.00

6

18.4%

Brian Scott

23.60

21.17

$5,540.00

6

18.4%

Trevor Bayne

25.00

20.83

$6,040.00

6

18.1%

Kasey Kahne

27.40

20.08

$8,300.00

6

17.4%

Matt DiBenedetto

22.00

19.92

$5,680.00

6

17.3%

Casey Mears

25.60

19.50

$6,200.00

6

16.9%

Ricky Stenhouse Jr./p>

21.80

18.75

$6,460.00

6

16.3%

Ryan Blaney

20.80

18.58

$6,560.00

6

16.1%

Ryan Newman

25.60

18.50

$7,300.00

6

16.0%

Aric Almirola

23.60

18.25

$6,720.00

6

15.8%

Michael Annett

26.40

17.67

$5,640.00

6

15.3%

Regan Smith

26.40

17.21

$5,580.00

6

14.9%

Jeffrey Earnhardt

29.00

13.50

$5,400.00

3

14.4%

Michael McDowell

25.60

17.20

$5,920.00

5

14.4%

Chris Buescher

28.40

15.92

$5,680.00

6

13.8%

Greg Biffle

23.60

14.25

$6,480.00

6

12.4%

Cole Whitt

30.40

13.13

$5,780.00

6

11.4%

Brian Vickers

20.67

13.00

$5,466.67

4

11.2%

Joey Gase

31.00

14.00

$2,700.00

2

8.8%

Reed Sorenson

32.00

11.75

$5,500.00

2

8.6%

Josh Wise

33.60

9.10

$5,620.00

5

7.6%

 

The chart shows the driver’s average rank within the Draft Kings games, the average number of points earned during the past six weeks, average salary cap, number of attempts, and the percentage of the maximum number of points earned during the events they ran.

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.