Loading scores...
Chris Buescher
Getty Images
Cap Considerations

Draft Kings: AAA Texas 500

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: November 1, 2019, 4:18 pm ET

The AAA 500 at Texas Motor Speedway is the third-from-last race of the season and the penultimate round on a 1.5-mile track. Fantasy players have only a few more chances to get their Fantasy NASCAR fix in for 2019, but they can’t lose sight of the big picture because lessons learned this week will translate to success in the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

There have been nine races so far in 2019 on 1.5-mile tracks and that gives us a lot of data to crunch. No one has been perfect, but some favorites and dark horses are head and shoulders above the competition on this course type.

On the other hand, several drivers have been perfect or nearly so at Texas in recent seasons and it is difficult to overlook them this week.


Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Kevin Harvick ($10,400)
No one has a better recent average at Texas than Harvick. Entering this spring’s O'Reilly 500, he had a streak of four top-fives—two of which were victories. Three of his previous five attempts were third or better and he had not been outside of the top 10 since fall 2014. Despite the preponderance of top-fives in that nine-race streak, he struggled to finish eighth. That would give us a little pause if not for the fact that he is the second-cheapest at this level.

Group B: (Between $9,800 and $8,600)

Joey Logano ($9,800)
From spring 2016 through last fall, the worst Logano finished at Texas was seventh. His six-race average at that time was 4.0 and it seemed like an easy choice to put him on the roster. He struggled and finished 17th – earning only 23.5 points in the process. We’re betting he is going to rebound, especially since his playoff hopes are on the line this week.

Kurt Busch ($9,000)
Busch has been fairly easy to overlook for much of the season. He has been consistent, but not terribly flashy even when he was scoring top-fives at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway at the start of the season. He was ninth in the O'Reilly 500, which kept that 1.5-mile streak alive. More importantly, it also stretched his record at Texas to five straight top-10s. In fact, since fall 2014 he has finished that well in eight of 10 races. None of these were top-fives, but then again he is not in Group A and won’t cost an arm and a leg.

Group C: (Between $8,400 and $7,300)

William Byron ($8,000)
After finishing 10th at Texas last spring, Byron went on a 1.5-mile track skid. His next eight races on this track type netted an average of 28.4 with a best result of 16th in the fall Texas race. He’s been much better in 2018 with a perfect streak of top-20s. He has five top-10s in the nine races on 1.5-milers this year including a sixth in the O'Reilly 500. Byron has been one of the best values in Group C for the past 45 days and he is going to add to those numbers this week.

Erik Jones ($8,400)
Jones has a couple of terrible results on 1.5-milers this year. Those have come with incidents, however, and when he has stayed out of trouble, he has practically swept the top 10 with seven such finishes and a 13th in the remaining eight events. One of these was a fourth at Texas this spring, which was his third consecutive top-five and fourth top-10 on the track. His recent struggles in the playoffs might have the competition looking elsewhere and could make him a good differentiator for your lineup.

Group D: (Between $7,200 and $6,100)

Chris Buescher ($6,700)
Buescher has almost identical numbers to Byron on this track type and costs $1,300 less; how can we not profile him this week? He got off to a solid start in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta with a ninth-place finish and has not been outside the top 20 since. Four of his last seven attempts on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks ended in top-10s and for the season, his average is 13.6. Dollar for dollar, he’s as good as they come.

Daniel Suarez ($7,200)
Suarez is still racing for his life. The longer it goes before an announcement is made about his status with Stewart-Haas Racing, the more likely it is that he will not return with the organization in 2020 – but that does not mean there aren’t other options in play and Suarez needs a strong run to maximize them. He won’t replicate his third-place finish from this spring, but he could easily finish in the teens.

Group E: (Less than or equal to $5,900)

Parker Kligerman ($5,200)
Kligerman has actually been very strong on the 1.5-mile tracks this year with a worst finish of 31st in five starts. That would not make him a good pick in the upper levels, but it separates him from the bargain basement drivers. In those races, he has scored 15.5 or more points every week – often hovering around the low-20s in terms of value. His price tag this week is the eighth-cheapest (33rd) and that will open up a lot of salary cap room in Group A and B.

The top-10 points’ earners from this spring were: Kyle Busch (79), Clint Bowyer (77.25), Denny Hamlin (73.25), Kurt Busch (70), Erik Jones (58), Kevin Harvick (57), Jimmie Johnson (57), Daniel Suarez (56.75), Aric Almirola (54.75), and William Byron (45.75).

Greatest Place-differential Points: Clint Bowyer (23), Kurt Busch (21), Kevin Harvick (15), and Aric Almirola (14)

NASCAR Fantasy Live Preview

 

Last 45 Days

Driver

Avg.
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

This
Week's
Cap

Points
Per K

Group

Martin Truex Jr.

8.67

526.00

87.67

$11,500

          7.62

A

Denny Hamlin

4.33

467.25

77.88

$10,800

          7.21

A

Kyle Busch

13.17

326.75

54.46

$11,200

          4.86

A

Kevin Harvick

9.00

298.00

49.67

$10,400

          4.78

A

Chase Elliott

19.33

169.00

28.17

$10,100

          2.79

A

 

Kyle Larson

13.83

270.25

45.04

$9,200

          4.90

B

Brad Keselowski

13.67

237.00

39.50

$9,600

          4.11

B

Kurt Busch

16.67

208.25

34.71

$9,000

          3.86

B

Joey Logano

16.33

207.50

34.58

$9,800

          3.53

B

Ryan Blaney

16.67

184.25

30.71

$9,400

          3.27

B

Clint Bowyer

16.67

172.25

28.71

$8,800

          3.26

B

Jimmie Johnson

21.17

127.25

21.21

$8,600

          2.47

B

 

Matt DiBenedetto

15.17

218.00

36.33

$7,600

          4.78

C

William Byron

14.83

221.50

36.92

$8,000

          4.61

C

Paul Menard

17.83

177.00

29.50

$7,300

          4.04

C

Ryan Newman

17.67

182.25

30.38

$7,800

          3.89

C

Alex Bowman

20.17

146.75

24.46

$8,200

          2.98

C

Aric Almirola

23.17

108.25

18.04

$7,500

          2.41

C

Erik Jones

28.17

58.25

9.71

$8,400

          1.16

C

 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

14.50

212.25

35.38

$6,800

          5.20

D

Ty Dillon

16.17

188.75

31.46

$6,500

          4.84

D

Bubba Wallace

19.00

175.75

29.29

$6,100

          4.80

D

Ryan Preece

20.33

177.00

29.50

$6,400

          4.61

D

Austin Dillon

17.67

181.75

30.29

$7,000

          4.33

D

Chris Buescher

23.50

137.75

22.96

$6,700

          3.43

D

Daniel Hemric

26.33

91.75

15.29

$6,300

          2.43

D

Daniel Suarez

28.33

52.25

8.71

$7,200

          1.21

D

 

Parker Kligerman

15.33

99.50

33.17

$5,200

          6.38

E

Ross Chastain

21.17

161.50

26.92

$5,300

          5.08

E

Corey LaJoie

20.67

176.50

29.42

$5,900

          4.99

E

Michael McDowell

21.00

149.00

24.83

$5,700

          4.36

E

Landon Cassill

23.83

128.25

21.38

$5,100

          4.19

E

JJ Yeley

26.25

71.50

17.88

$5,000

          3.58

E

David Ragan

26.83

93.50

15.58

$5,600

          2.78

E

Reed Sorenson

29.00

76.50

12.75

$4,800

          2.66

E

Garrett Smithley

29.75

47.50

11.88

$4,700

          2.53

E

Timmy Hill

30.00

35.50

11.83

$4,900

          2.41

E

Quin Houff

34.00

10.00

10.00

$4,600

          2.17

E

Josh Bilicki

32.50

11.00

5.50

$4,500

          1.22

E

JH Nemechek

 

 

 

$5,500

             -  

E

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.