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Bubba Wallace
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Cap Considerations

Draft Kings: Drydene 400

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: October 4, 2019, 2:03 pm ET

Dover International Speedway is a rhythm track. Qualification matters and so does the ripple effect of track position. In this race last year, only three drivers earned more than 10 place-differential points: Denny Hamlin ended with a +13 to finish second, Erik Jones with a +12 to finish fourth, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. with a +12 to finish ninth. In the spring, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch significantly added to their total with a +12.

If one of your favorites starts in the mid- to high-teens, don’t automatically shy away, but concentrate on those who qualify well and who posted quick times in Friday’s practices.

As one of the more unique tracks on the schedule, Dover does not have a close comparative but we will look at how drivers performed on two other rough-surfaced tracks of Darlington Raceway and Bristol Motor Speedway this week when setting our Draft Kings lineup.


Group A: Most Expensive (>=$10,000)

Chase Elliott ($10,300)
Until he stumbles at Dover for more than an isolated race, Elliott is going to be the go-to guy on this track. His near-perfect streak of top-five finishes has given him the fourth-best average Draft Kings points of 66 with an average result of 4.4. The one thing that has kept him from scoring maximum points is that he has a tendency to surge at the end of races and does not have a lot of laps led compared to the three drivers (Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Larson) who have scored greater in this game. He is, however, significantly cheaper than the other two A-List choices for the Drydene 400.

Group B: (Between $9,700 and $8,600)

Kyle Larson ($9,700)
Larson has definitely been coming on strong in recent weeks. He has been one of the top-10 points’ earners in the Draft Kings games seven times in the last nine weeks. On the other rough-surfaced tracks of Darlington and Bristol, he scored the fourth- and fifth-most points respectively. Since the start of 2017, Larson has earned the second-most points on average here at Dover and he should remain a solid value.

Joey Logano ($9,500)
Logano has not been overly impressive in terms of his raw finishes in recent weeks, but he has managed to scored relatively well in the Draft Kings game. His 45-day total of 245.5 points earned compared to this week’s salary cap gives him a good Points Per Thousand ratio. When one dives deeply, that number is actually a little better because it is negatively skewed by a modest effort on the Charlotte Roval last week.

Group C: (Between $8,400 and $7,300)

William Byron ($7,400)
Byron has been hard to handicap, but he has been extremely profitable on a couple of occasions. He earned the third-most points at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (66.25) and the fourth-most last week on the Charlotte Roval (45.25). He wasn’t quite as productive at Dover this spring with 36.25, but he has Hendrick Motorsports power under the hood and this has been a good track for them in the past.

Daniel Suarez ($7,600)
Along with Elliott and Larson, Suarez is one of the drivers who have been almost perfect at Dover during their career. In five starts there, he has finished worse than 10th only once. That was an 11th this spring, but even then he earned the sixth-most points (54.25). In the past three seasons Suarez has scored the fifth-most points on average at Dover, which easily makes him one of this week’s top picks at this level.

Group D: (Between $7,100 and $5,800)

Bubba Wallace ($6,100)
Controversy has a way of galvanizing drivers. While there is no condoning a racer who throws water in the face of a man sitting on the ground, Wallace was amped up after being intentionally spun by playoff contender Alex Bowman; one week previous, Austin Dillon also had a shoving match with that same driver and the two incidents have the non-playoff drivers talking about respect. Ultimately the best way to earn that is to finish well – that whole “the best revenge is success” aphorism.  Wallace has been consistent at Dover with a best finish of 23rd and worst of 27th; this could be the week that he earns a career-first top-20.

Chris Buescher ($7,100)
Buescher has been better overall than Wallace at Dover. During his seven-race career on this track, he has earned two top-20s and finished outside the top 25 only once. This spring he was 23rd in the Gander RV 400 for which he earned the 17th-most points of 28th. That is slightly better than his salary cap rank of 20th this week, so no fantasy player is going to want to build a roster around the No. 37 – but he will carry his own weight if you have just enough remaining after choosing your other five drivers.

Group E: (Less than or equal to $5,700)

Ross Chastain ($5,300)
Chastain was a modest value this spring at Dover. His 20.5 points earned was the 24th-best in the field, which is not bad from a driver in Draft Kings’ bargain bin. He was even better a few weeks ago at Bristol—another rough-surfaced track—where he banked the 17th-most points of 31.5. Fantasy players will only take a driver at this level if they are stretching their salary cap and the best news about Chastain is that he has never cost points this season.

The top-10 points’ earners from this spring were: Martin Truex Jr. (131), Chase Elliott (94.75), Alex Bowman (65.5), Kevin Harvick (60.25), Kyle Busch (56.75), Daniel Suarez (54.25), Kyle Larson (54), Erik Jones (52.5), Brad Keselowski (49.5), and Joey Logano (44)

Greatest Place-differential Points: Kyle Busch (12), Martin Truex Jr. (12), and Erik Jones (9)

NASCAR Fantasy Live Preview

 

Driver

Avg.
Rank

Total
Points
Earned

Avg.
Points

This
Week's
Cap

Points
Per K

Group

Kevin Harvick

5.20

307.25

61.45

$11,100

          5.54

A

Martin Truex Jr.

9.60

300.00

60.00

$11,600

          5.17

A

Chase Elliott

9.60

258.00

51.60

$10,300

          5.01

A

Kyle Busch

19.00

248.50

49.70

$12,000

          4.14

A

Brad Keselowski

11.60

205.75

41.15

$10,000

          4.12

A

Denny Hamlin

14.80

184.75

36.95

$10,700

          3.45

A

 

Joey Logano

10.80

245.50

49.10

$9,500

          5.17

B

Ryan Blaney

11.40

208.50

41.70

$9,200

          4.53

B

Kyle Larson

13.80

204.00

40.80

$9,700

          4.21

B

Clint Bowyer

15.40

157.50

31.50

$8,600

          3.66

B

Kurt Busch

24.40

109.00

21.80

$9,000

          2.42

B

Erik Jones

31.20

38.75

7.75

$8,800

          0.88

B

 

Matt DiBenedetto

12.40

183.25

36.65

$7,700

          4.76

C

William Byron

14.40

189.50

37.90

$8,400

          4.51

C

Ryan Newman

15.40

178.50

35.70

$8,200

          4.35

C

Alex Bowman

16.60

160.00

32.00

$8,000

          4.00

C

Aric Almirola

18.60

142.75

28.55

$7,500

          3.81

C

Daniel Suarez

20.80

114.25

22.85

$7,300

          3.13

C

Jimmie Johnson

20.80

101.25

20.25

$7,800

          2.60

C

 

Bubba Wallace

13.00

197.50

39.50

$6,100

          6.48

D

Ty Dillon

11.60

186.50

37.30

$6,500

          5.74

D

Paul Menard

17.00

158.75

31.75

$6,700

          4.74

D

Austin Dillon

16.20

160.00

32.00

$6,900

          4.64

D

Chris Buescher

21.20

130.75

26.15

$7,100

          3.68

D

Michael McDowell

24.60

91.00

18.20

$5,800

          3.14

D

Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

25.20

81.00

16.20

$6,300

          2.57

D

Daniel Hemric

33.00

5.50

1.10

$5,900

          0.19

D

 

Ross Chastain

23.40

114.25

22.85

$5,300

          4.31

E

JJ Yeley

24.75

80.00

20.00

$4,800

          4.17

E

Matt Tifft

22.60

104.50

20.90

$5,400

          3.87

E

Joe Nemechek

26.33

54.50

18.17

$5,100

          3.56

E

David Ragan

25.20

95.00

19.00

$5,600

          3.39

E

Corey LaJoie

25.80

87.50

17.50

$5,500

          3.18

E

BJ McLeod

28.33

44.00

14.67

$4,900

          2.99

E

Ryan Preece

28.00

84.50

16.90

$5,700

          2.96

E

Landon Cassill

25.40

75.50

15.10

$5,200

          2.90

E

Garrett Smithley

30.00

54.50

13.63

$4,700

          2.90

E

Reed Sorenson

29.40

67.00

13.40

$5,000

          2.68

E

 

Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.