Last week in this column I touched on three types of lineup decisions to help you chase the big score in the FFFC: correlation plays, upside plays, and low-ownership plays. This column will focus on those same three areas this week, as all three are important aspects toward giving yourself the best possible opportunity at the monster FanDuel score you’ll need to head to Vegas and play for a $2,000,000 first place prize. This week FanDuel has three more qualifiers on tap for us at three different price points:
- $10 entry; 23,793 teams, 2 seats
- $25 entry, 9,517 teams, 2 seats
- $1000 entry, 108 teams, 1 seat
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One way to give yourself the best chance at a huge score, which you’ll need to win a seat to Las Vegas for the FanDuel championships, is to correlate your plays as much as possible. What does this mean, exactly? The best example is pairing your QB with a WR/TE. The logic behind this pairing is simple enough: When your receiver or tight scores points, by default, so does your quarterback. There’s a correlation between the two that gives you a higher probability of putting up a big score as you really only need one of them to put up a monster score and the other one will follow suit. Here’s a few simple correlation plays that could pay dividends on Sunday:
1. Jake Locker and Justin Hunter – These two are not big names, but they’ve got a very enticing matchup come Sunday at home vs. the Cowboys. There’s no other way to put this: The Cowboys have a terrible defense on all three levels, from the line to the linebackers to the secondary. An athletic quarterback like Jake Locker should be able to take advantage here, and Justin Hunter may emerge as the top receiving option (particularly in the Red Zone) on the Titans sooner rather than later. This combo has upside, will still have a fairly low ownership percentage, and comes cheap on FanDuel at just $7400 and $5700, respectively.
2. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green – If you’re new to DFS, one thing you’ll learn pretty quickly is that Andy Dalton flies under the radar. I’m not entirely sure why that is, perhaps because the national media loves to hate on the Bengals QB. But the man throws a lot of touchdown passes, and plenty of those go to A.J. Green year after year. These two are a threat to hook up on multiple long TDs every game, and if A.J. Green is going to have a big game, Andy Dalton will too. This is a great matchup vs. the Falcons who are going to get torched all season long, and I think you’ll see both of these players with a low ownership percentage come Sunday afternoon.
Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $75,000 Fantasy Football Contest for Week 2's games. It's only $10 to join and first prize is $7,500. Starts Sunday, September 14th at 1pm ET. Here's the link.
Here’s the truth about huge qualifiers that only really pay 1% or less of the field: you’re likely to lose your buy-in. No matter how good you are at DFS or how well you can project players, the fact is these qualifiers are VERY difficult to win and it will likely take you many tries to win your way to the big dance. You’re going to need to put up a monster score to best the field, and to do that, you need to roster an entire team full of upside. Here’s some guys who are capable of putting up a huge number on Sunday:
1. Andrew Luck – Luck has enormous upside this week against the visiting Eagles. We all know that the Eagles under Chip Kelly like to play at a fast pace and get put up points in a hurry, which points all arrows up for the Colts quarterback. One of the best things – at least in fantasy – that can happen to your QB is for them to fall behind early and start playing catchup. We saw how effective Luck was in that role last week in Denver, and I would not be surprised to see it happen again. The Colts run game is putrid right now, with Trent Richardson not getting the job done, and the reigns may be handed to Luck very early in this one. I’m expecting a shootout here and Luck should be the beneficiary.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson – In case you’ve been living under a rock all day, Adrian Peterson has been deactivated for Sunday’s game. It’s hard to know how the Vikings’ game plan will change because of this news, but one thing seems certain – they’re not going to be able to dominate in the run game with running backs Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon. This should mean more carries for the super-talented Patterson, and perhaps more targets in the pass game as well. Patterson has huge week-to-week upside anyway with his built in big play ability, but Peterson’s absence should increase his usage substantially. He’s an elite upside play on Sunday at home vs. New England.
Percentage owned by the field is one aspect that the new DFS player often overlooks, for understandable reasons. The ultimate goal, of course, is to put up the most fantasy points possible, but ideally you want your top scoring players to be people that the majority of users are not rostering. That way, if your guy manages to score 3 touchdowns, you’ll make huge waves on the field and fly up the standings. On the other hand if you’ve got Jimmy Graham along with 30% of the field, even if he has a monster game, you’ve still got 30% of the field to contend with, and if he has a poor or even average game, you’re unlikely to be able to win the tournament. It’s advantageous to take guys who other people won’t be on, but they need to have the upside to match the popular plays of the day. One way to better project this is to use “RotoGrinders Field Report” each week. It shows you the % owned players from Thursday contests. Here are a couple of players I think could come through in a big way at a low ownership percentage.
1. Dez Bryant – We all watched the Cowboys stink up the joint on Sunday vs. the 49ers. Unable to drink any water during his 8 months off from football games and prepare for the entirely predictable climate in Dallas’ indoor stadium, Dez missed parts of the game due to dehydration and generally had a poor game. Listen – we’ve seen the ups and downs from Bryant throughout his career. He may never be as consistent as you’d like, but there’s no questioning his talent. He’ll have a low ownership on Sunday but is certainly capable of 100+ yards and two touchdowns. That’s what you’re looking for when trying to win this size of tournament.
2. Dwayne Allen – If judging by Thursday nights’ ownership percentages is any indication (and it certainly is), we’ll see the Colts’ talented tight end with a very low ownership percentage on Sunday. Allen had a solid game against the Broncos in Week 1, and more of the same can reasonably be expected in Week 2. This game should be another high-scoring affair, and Allen should out-snap Coby Fleener once again. The Colts should be able to move the ball and score against the Eagles, and at his tiny price tag of $4,800 and low ownership percentage, Allen could pay off in a big way.