DFS Fades Week 3
There are several reasons you might not want to roster a certain player in a given week of NFL DFS. To truly be a “fade”, in my opinion the player has to be projected to have decent ownership, e.g. no one is “fading” a WR3 on the Arizona Cardinals. I’ll always provide the argument for and against a player in this column.
Also, fading a player doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll have zero exposure. If you’re a DFS player who plays on multiple sites with multiple lineups in various contests, fading might mean you use that player in just one or two tournament lineups while other DFS players are using him in a majority of their lineups.
In the case where you want to fade a player due to projected high ownership (see more on this below), perhaps you fade him in tournaments but continue to roster him in cash games. Having an idea of whom you don’twant to roster as well as whom you do makes navigating salary decisions in the lineup construction process a little bit easier.
So in Week 3, I’m fading…
David Johnson: A question was posed to me about if I’d start DJ over Alex Collins if my opponent was already up big due to Carlos Hyde’s and Jarvis Landry’s big game Thursday night. In that situation, yes I would. But in DFS, I’d rather roster any of the 4-6 backs priced below him (on FanDuel). The upside is still there, I hope, but the Bears defense, particularly their run defense, is going to work hard to stifle it for this week.
Andrew Luck: There are so many QBs to like this weekend, that Luck and T.Y. Hilton aren’t making it into my lineups. The duos of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, Alex Smith and Paul Richardson, Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen, even Blake Bortles and Keelan Cole are all appealing to me much more than Luck as a big underdog at Philadelphia.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Likewise, I’d rather spend on Jones or Antonio Brown (in contests that include Monday night) at WR. Add Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, A.J. Green and Tyreek Hill to the list of receivers I think could easily outperform OBJ this week.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is still priced as the most or second-most expensive QB despite a bum knee and a terrible matchup. He’s ranked as QB 13 right now in fantasy scoring, behind guys like Joe Flacco, Blake Bortles, and Tyrod Taylor. The Washington Redskins are quietly a solid pass defense, allowing the second-fewest points in the league (13.5 PPG) and the fewest passing yards (161.5 paYPG).
Michael Thomas: The Saints player I’m paying up for is Alvin Kamara. While Thomas may well be matchup-proof, the Saints are on the road and he is likely going to see a lot of Desmond Trufant, Atlanta’s best corner. Meanwhile, Kamara should feast on a Falcons defense that has long been a fantasy favorite for pass-catching running backs. This Thomas fade is as much about the money as the matchup; I’d prefer to spend less on Julio Jones or Tyreek Hill.
Dalvin Cook: Cook is all but officially ruled out as I write this, opening the door to a glorious Latavius Murray moment against the Buffalo Bills this Sunday. Murray is too cheap to NOT be part of most of your lineups.
Marquise Goodwin: Goodwin looks like he will play, and if he plays, he should be in a couple tournament lineups. The matchup is a dream, and I wouldn’t have any lingering worries about a thigh bruise flaring up during the game. He should step right into the WR1 role.
Leonard Fournette: Fournette also looks likely to play, but I’m not as confident. For one, the Jaguars should have no problem moving the ball through the air against the Titans. I think they’ll tread lightly with their star back in a game where they should get and hold a lead with relative ease. Even if T.J. Yeldon isn’t 100 percent, I’m not running to get Fournette in DFS lineups this week, with better options at the top (Alvin Kamara) and bottom (Murray, Giovanni Bernard).
Paul Richardson Jr.: If Richardson plays, he’s the most likely Redskin receiver to produce after Jordan Reed. I currently have one Alex Smith-Reed tournament lineup, but if Richardson and his shoulder is a full go, I might make it two Alex Smith lineups against a porous Green Bay secondary.
LeSean McCoy:You aren’t using McCoy on the anemic Bills offense anyway against the Vikings, but the fact that he is dealing with a painful, though not serious, rib injury should make you even less enthusiastic.
In Week 3, players with high projected ownership are Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Tevin Coleman, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, Giovanni Bernard, Corey Clement, Vikings D/ST, and Jaguars D/ST. I think Game Theory is useful in DFS to an extent; obviously we can’t all win with the same players. But time and again it’s proven that big GPP winners can and do win with popular plays in their lineups. One or two highly owned players that live up to their expectations (e.g. score a ton of points) won’t hurt you nearly as much as fading those guys in favor of lower-owned, lesser-producing players will. The trick is to find the low-owned, productive guys to mix in around them.