Sports Injury Predictor has partnered with Rotoworld in 2015 to give you an even greater chance winning your weekly DFS games this coming season. As a quick introduction we have an algorithm that figures out which players are more likely to get injured in the coming season. Follow us on Twitter @injurypredictor and check out our injury search engine here for the complete injury history and probability for every player in the NFL.
Full disclosure from week 5
Let’s take a quick look at the players we called out last week to see how they performed to keep us honest. In week 5 we got three out of five correct which puts us at 19 out of 22 on the year so far.
Arian Foster ($8,200) – 16 FDP
We were overly cautious on Foster as he did enough to return 2:1 value last week. I think it’s fair to say that he is back. This week he has an enticing matchup at the Jaguars. Plug him in to your lineups and don’t look back.
Andre Ellington ($5,600) – 12.3 FDP
Ellington returned 2:1 value thanks to a 63 yard touchdown. He looked no worse for wear after missing the last 4 weeks with a PCL injury. Look for him to begin eating into CJ?K’s workload.
Tevin Coleman ($5,700) – 0.3 FDP
Coleman’s ribs seemed fine in the 2 carries that the Falcons gave him. Of bigger concern to his prospects for 2015 was the way Devonta Freeman beasted all over the Redskins.
OVERVALUED PLAYERS IN WEEK 6
Players who are questionable
Justin Forsett ($7,600)
Forsett is coming off of back to back 100+ yard games and finally looks to be getting his in 2015. However, on Sunday he went down with an ankle sprain in the fourth quarter that kept him sidelined as the Ravens went down to the Browns in overtime. Harbaugh said after the game that Forsett had avoided a major injury but there are three things that should make you think twice here:
1) If it was not a major injury why didn’t he return in a game he was clearly needed in
2) If you watch a replay of the injury you will see that his foot twists outwards rather than inwards and he grabs his shin rather than his ankle as he lays on the ground. That sequence points to a high ankle sprain rather than the garden variety low ankle sprain that would result in little time away.
3) Harbaugh has not been very forthcoming when it’s come to giving the exact nature of players injuries (ala Breshad Perriman who was dealing with knee bruise until it came out he had torn his PCL)
For those of you in season long leagues there is a good chance he doesn’t play and adding Buck Allen or Lorenzo Taliaferro could be a good play this week. Even if he does make it through practice this week he should be avoided in DFS as that injury could limit his snaps and risk aggravation in Sunday’s tilt with San Francisco.
Julio Jones ($9,200)
This could be seem as a risky fade in that Julio has had some huge games so far this season. However I’m pretty comfortable shying away from Julio this week as he clearly was in a lot of discomfort in last week’s game against the Redskins. Last year he suffered an ankle injury in week 5 that held him under 70 yards for 6 weeks. When Julio plays injured he is not the same player and with the trifecta of his extremely high price point, holding the back of his leg on the sideline and playing on a short week on Thursday night I think he makes a safer fade than one would think.
Tyrod Taylor ($7,400)
Taylor put his offense on his back as he rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown along with a passing touchdown too in Bills snoozefest victory over the Titans. He came out of it with a sprained MCL and all signs point to him missing this week’s action against the Bengals.
If he does go he should be avoided as with so much of his efficiency and production being by way of his ability to exit the pocket, a sprained MCL threatens to limit that capability and his effectiveness.
Players whose practice reps you should be watching this week:
These are players who left games injured last week but whose status is unknown for this week.
TJ Yeldon ($6,800): He exited the game on Sunday in the fourth quarter and did not return with a groin injury. His injury history and workload are considerations to take into account when factoring just how effective he will be playing injured. Any “limited” reports later in the week should make you walk away and look for alternatives at his price point (Gio Bernard at $6,700 and Frank Gore at $7,000).
Odell Beckham ($9,100): OBJ was clearly limping with a hamstring injury. He was able to return but when a player with his history of hamstring trouble clutches the back of his leg and hops off the field you have to be worried. See how he responds to rehab and conditioning work this week. At his price there are way more safer options heading into Sunday.