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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Friday

by Spencer Limbach
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last 2-5 minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick (that’s not a bad idea), nobody else in your league can have him.

 

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

 

 

Editor's Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link

 

 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Patrick Corbin – P – Arizona (DRAFT Projection: 10.4)

 

The pitcher position is strange tonight, as we don’t have any clear-cut aces to lead the way. Mixing in some potential weather situations only adds to the chaos. Despite all of that, I’m looking to Patrick Corbin as a top three pitcher in this slate. He is coming off a pair of rough outings, allowing 10 earned runs through 11.1 innings through those two starts. One of those appearances came against the same Pittsburgh team he’ll face tonight. However, those two games were played at home in Arizona’s Chase Field, where the ball has been flying this time of year. Tonight’s shift to PNC Park in Pittsburgh could help Corbin get back on track. I have confidence in his stuff (and strikeout potential) more than most pitching options tonight, which is why I’m willing to upgrade this projection. Just make sure to double-check the weather situation in Pittsburgh, as there seems to be some chance of precipitation (30-40%).

 

 

JD Martinez – IF – BOS (DRAFT Projection: 9.5)

 

Usually Martinez is on the other side of the ledger, checking in as an overrated DRAFT commodity. However, it seems that he has been docked nearly a full fantasy point from his usual projection. I’m not exactly sure why that’s the case, as he’s facing a mediocre left-handed pitcher (Wade LeBlanc of Seattle) in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. The Red Sox carry a top five run-scoring projection on the night, and Martinez should probably have a projection closer to the 10.0 to 10.5 FP level.

 

 

Justin Upton – OF – LA Angels (DRAFT Projection: 8.6)

 

I believe the Angels will represent a sneaky-good stack tonight, so keep that in mind when playing on DraftKings and FanDuel. As for DRAFT, Justin Upton is underrated within that confident stacking extension. The Angels will host RHP Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays tonight. Even though Estra has been better as of late, he still holds an exploitable .369 wOBA against right-handed bats. Trout, Upton, Pujols, Kinsler, and Simmons will all look to take advantage of that split. Upton has excellent power upside to make for a promising selection to your DRAFT squad. I’m upgrading him close to a full fantasy point at 9.6 FP.

 

 

Odubel Herrera – OF – Philadelphia (DRAFT Projection: 7.9)

 

This is a true diamond in the rough, as many people probably won’t scroll this far to check out players projected below 8.0 fantasy points. Also, Herrera isn’t exactly a “name brand” option that jumps off the screen at you. However, he has an excellent contact/upside profile illustrated by three homers, six hits, and five RBI over his past three games. That’s not too shabby! Now he’ll face struggling Washington RHP Tanner Roark, who carries an exploitable .346 wOBA against left-handed bats. Keep Odubel in your back-pocket as a deeper outfielder to complete your roster.

 

 

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Zack Wheeler – P – NY Mets (DRAFT Projection: 11.1)

 

As mentioned earlier, the pitcher rankings are all over the place and certainly subject to change. Having said that, I stand by downgrading Zack Wheeler from the third best projection of this position. In fact, you’ll see that he didn’t even make the top ten in my pitcher rankings below. This just isn’t a good matchup vs the Dodgers, and Wheeler hasn’t done much this season to deserve such a ranking (4.82 ERA). He’s an easy pass for me.

 

 

Michael Brantley – OF – Cleveland (DRAFT Projection: 9.9)

 

I don’t mind Michael Brantley, but I’d rather take lower projected outfielders above him. After Blackmon, Trout, Harper, Betts, Judge, and Springer are off the board, the outfield position becomes less straightforward. I’ll be looking towards lesser ranked players like Yelich, Upton, Hoskins, Dietrich, Anderson, Eaton, Gallo, and Herrera before considering Brantley. I believe all of these players have more upside while probably getting taken in later rounds for better overall value.

 

 

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher rankings. This is strange. As you’ll see below, we don’t have any top tier pitchers – just a few clusters of twos and threes. There’s certainly room for debate between these hurlers, as they all have their faults beyond the surface. However, Newcomb, Corbin, Keuchel, and Heaney all carry significant upside in my opinion – which is why they are ranked towards the top. You can wait on a pitcher in deeper leagues also, as Stratton, Richard, and Sabathia are all serviceable options after loading your roster with the best hitters possible. There’s low opportunity cost at pitcher tonight, which makes waiting on a starter the preferred strategy.

 

  1. Sean Newcomb – Tier 2
  2. Patrick Corbin – Tier 2
  3. Dallas Keuchel – Tier 2
  4. Andrew Heaney – Tier 2
  5. Alex Wood – Tier 2
  6. Jose Quintana – Tier 2
  7. Chris Stratton – Tier 3
  8. Clayton Richard – Tier 3
  9. C.C. Sabathia – Tier 3
  10. Jon Gray – Tier 3

 

 

Weather risk. Here we go again. There aren’t any overly dangerous weather situations, but all of them are the annoying 30-50% persistent chance of precipitation. Keep in mind that this article was written early on Friday morning, so the forecast could have easily changed after publishing. You’ll want to pay close attention to PHI-WAS, CHC-CIN, DET-CLE, ARI-PIT, and BAL-ATL as we move closer to first pitch.

Spencer Limbach

Spencer Limbach is a multi-sport daily fantasy specialist for NBC Sports Edge. He can be found on twitter @Spencer_JL.