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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Friday

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT’s DFS platform, it’s an innovative daily fantasy game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last under five minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can roster him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link. 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Michael Foltynewicz – SP – Atlanta (DRAFT Projection: 11.7 FP)

 

Although this is merely a tune up outing and thus could be cut short after 90 pitches, this is a highly desirable matchup. Visiting Citizen’s Bank Park is a negative on its own, but that also means he’ll face an utterly collapsed Phillies roster. Run support is likely as well as a healthy strikeout rate. Philadelphia features the third-most strikeout prone offense, and they’ve taken to starting fringy major leaguers like Pedro Florimon. I project six innings, 7.3 strikeouts, 2.4 runs, and 40 percent of a win (12.5 FP). I’d look at him as the third pitcher.

 

Nolan Arenado – INF – Colorado (DRAFT Projection: 9.8 FP)

 

Arenado is DRAFT’s sixth ranked infielder. He should be in a virtual tie for first with Alex Bregman. The Rockies host the Nationals at Coors Field. Arenado is a world destroyer when batting at home - .368/.451/.747. Joe Ross is the type of pitcher whose stuff plays down at elevation. DRAFT prefers Trevor Story to Arenado, but I’d take the latter first.

 

J.D. Martinez also deserves to be in the mix for first infielder drafted. He’s my personal third choice, but it’s a narrow difference between the top three. DRAFT has, uh, forgotten to include him. Look for that to be fixed in later leagues.

 

Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles (DRAFT Projection 10.4 FP)

 

I’m honestly shocked how often DRAFT gets this wrong. See Mike Trout, pick Mike Trout. It’s easy. Along for the aforementioned infielders and Charlie Blackmon, Trout is in the mix for the first overall selection. DRAFT says he’s only the fifth best outfielder.

 

Tommy Pham (0.0 FP) should be around the 15th best outfielder tonight. He’s an easy fifth round target opposite lefty Thomas Pannone.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Tyler Glasnow – SP – Tampa Bay (DRAFT Projection: 11.4 FP)

 

I’m still relatively on board with using Glasnow tonight. DRAFT ranks him as the sixth best arm while I see him as the eighth best. However, that small difference hides a sizable difference in projection. Tampa isn’t playing for anything, and they have a pitcher-rich roster. I doubt Glasnow will exceed six innings even if he’s dealing. That means his projection must be for fewer than six frames. I’m looking at 5.1 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 2.8 runs, and a little over a third of a win (9.2 FP).

 

In a more general sense, DRAFT has overprojected every noteworthy pitcher below Hyun-Jin Ryu.

 

Jesus Aguilar – INF – Milwaukee (DRAFT Projection: 9.9 FP)

 

Back at the All Star Break, I warned readers of the impending hammer blow of regression. Since then, Aguilar is batting a bland .244/.322/.434. That’s a luck neutral batting line, meaning it should roughly represent what we should expect in the future. He undoubtedly possesses impressive raw power, but he’s not the All Star he appeared to be. DRAFT hasn’t caught on, ranking him fourth in the slate. His matchup against Jordan Zimmermann is favorable. Look for him in the fourth or fifth round of 10 team formats.

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher Talk. For a second straight day, Cole tops the charts. This time, the weather should favor him. I anticipate a slightly shortened outing, thus he isn’t an obvious upgrade over the second tier pitchers. Notable, several other starters are at risk of leaving early, namely Foltynewicz, Clevinger, and Glasnow.

 

  1. Gerrit Cole – Tier 1
  2. Patrick Corbin – Tier 2
  3. Mike Foltynewicz – Tier 2
  4. Mike Clevinger – Tier 2
  5. Jose Berrios  – Tier 2
  6. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Tier 3
  7. Madison Bumgarner – Tier 3
  8. Tyler Glasnow – Tier 3
  9. Kyle Freeland – Tier 4
  10. Mike Fiers – Tier 4
  11. Kyle Hendricks – Tier 4
  12. Wade LeBlanc – Tier 4
Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.