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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Monday

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT’s DFS platform, it’s an innovative daily fantasy game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last under five minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can roster him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link. 

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Play Ins. We have only two games on the docket today which means just four starting pitchers. As such, DRAFT has limited leagues to a maximum of three teams. Enjoy.

 

Pitcher Talk. Just hours before the first Play In game, the Brewers pitching strategy remains opaque. Jhoulys Chacin is their best available pitcher, but using him could mean a bullpen game for the Wild Card round – if they lose. Milwaukee will probably opt to push their chips all-in. However, there’s a chance Chacin is reserved for the next game. In that case, we’re likely looking at an Opener with Chase Anderson in relief. Since it appears all contests are a maximum of three teams, it probably pays to simply avoid the Brewers pitching staff.

  1. Walker Buehler – Tier 1
  2. German Marquez – Tier 1
  3. Jose Quintana – Tier 2
  4. Jhoulys Chacin? – Tier 3

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

German Marquez – SP – Colorado (DRAFT Projection: 9.9 FP)

 

Marquez’s ordinal ranking is correct – he is the second best pitcher available. Where DRAFT has failed is the projection. Marquez and Walker Buehler are actually pretty close in quality. The Rockies ace has reached double-digit strikeout totals in five of his last six starts. Notably, those were against squishy opponents like the Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks (post-elimination), and Phillies. The Dodgers can and will put up more of a fight. Still, Marquez projects to about 6.1 innings, seven strikeouts, 3.15 runs, and one-third of a win (11.5 FP). That’s a big advantage on third-best Jose Quintana and well worth reaching in the second or third round to ensure pitching upside.

 

Manny Machado – INF – Los Angeles (DRAFT Projection: 7.7 FP)

 

It’s strange that DRAFT is so pessimistic about Marquez but then also rates most Dodger hitters poorly. If Marquez only projects to sub-10 points, it’s hard to imagine Machado as only the eighth best infielder. It’s unlikely for both conditions to co-exist. In fact, even though I’m much more enthusiastic about Marquez, I also have Machado as the third best infielder.

 

No projection system expects Trevor Story to be relevant to drafts in three-team formats. Nonetheless, his combination of red hot power and speed makes him an interesting fifth round target.

 

Ryan Braun – OF – Milwaukee (DRAFT Projection 8.1 FP)

 

I don’t often buy into hot streaks – at least not if I can’t identify a mechanical change or some other difference the hitter is exploiting. It’s shown to be a loss maker. Braun however is smoking hot, a sign he could be feeling healthy at just the right time. He’s a long standing lefty masher including .250/.345/.531 this season. The wind is blowing out lightly to left field. Conditions are ripe for Braun. I’m looking at him immediately after Yelich.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

We could quibble about a number of players, but I’m going to simplify things by saying nobody is horrifically overrated. The guy who stands out the most is Jesus Aguilar. DRAFT says he's the top infielder. I wouldn’t pick him as a top six infielder. However, given his latent power and the venue, betting on a home run from Aguilar isn’t a bad play. My personal projection rates him as the 15th infielder. That’s also within one point of the top spot.  

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.