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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Monday

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT’s DFS platform, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last under five minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can have him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link. 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Javier Baez – INF – Chicago (DRAFT Projection: 9.7 FP)

 

The Cubs have a soft matchup against Kyle Freeland. The southpaw is having some issues with home runs in the early going. Today is one of the first big offense days at Wrigley Field. The wind is currently blowing out to dead center at a steady 15 mph. Confirm those conditions before your draft. If they’re present, a mini Cubs stack could be extremely valuable. As for Baez, I’m not yet prepared to say he’s achieved a breakout. His peripherals look awfully consistent with past season. This looks more like a hot streak to me. The matchup versus Freeland is still good enough to make him the third best infielder available. He’s ranked tenth.

 

Jesus Aguilar – INF – Milwaukee (DRAFT Projection: 1.3 FP)

 

For those playing 10 team leagues, Aguilar is a solid stealth last round pick. With Eric Thames sidelined, the righty is playing semi-regularly, especially against left-handed pitchers. He’s set to face a struggling Brandon Finnegan at power friendly Great American Ballpark. I have him around the 15th best infielder. He’ll be a forgotten man due to his near-zero projection.

 

Ian Happ – OF – Chicago (DRAFT Projection: 1.3 FP)

 

Another player overlooked by the projection engine, the switch-hitting Happ should be expected to start against Freeland. There’s always a chance he’ll sit, but DRAFT lets you replace non-starters. As a potential last round pick with superb conditions on his side, Happ is the steal of the day. A terrifying strikeout rate saps some of his potential. However, it’s worth noting that most of his contact is of the hard fly ball variety. He’s one of the best bets for a multi-homer day.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Charlie Morton – SP – Philadelphia (DRAFT Projection: 12.0 FP)

 

I’ve been a Charlie Morton truther since he teased his breakout in 2016 during a short stint with the Phillies. Against just about any other opponent, I’d be on board with this projection. He’s the second ranked pitcher. At this point, it’s incredibly foolish to use all but the most elite starters versus the Yankees. The New Bronx Bombers have already scored 12 more runs than the next most effective offense. If you’re in a shallow three person league, I’d pass on Morton entirely. Those in deeper leagues may need to roll the dice – just not in the first couple rounds.

 

Mookie Betts – OF – Boston (DRAFT Projection: 11.0 FP)

 

Even without a minor hamstring injury possibly forcing him to the bench tonight, Betts would be miscast as the top-rated outfielder. The conditions at this Wrigley Field game are just too juicy. Several Brewers and Blue Jays are better picks too. Even if Betts plays, he’ll be taking it easy on his hamstring. Bet on another rest day.

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Stacks. Many of the day’s best hitter projections play for the Cubs, Brewers, and Rockies. Don’t shy away from a mini-stack. It’s a way to maximize the volatility of your roster. Doing so will usually increase your chance of finishing first (and last). DRAFT only rewards the top one or two rosters so playing it safe isn’t a winning strategy.

 

Pitcher Talk. Most of the projections for today are spot on. The one guy who interests me as a possible diamond in the rough is Aaron Sanchez. Otherwise, I’d make sure to grab one of DRAFT’s top seven ranked pitchers (I’d bump Morton down from second to seventh ranked).

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on NBC Sports Edge, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.