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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Sunday

by Spencer Limbach
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last 2-5 minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can have him.

 

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

 

Editor's Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link

 

 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Matt Kemp – OF – LA Dodgers (DRAFT Projections: 10.2)

 

Kemp isn’t nearly as underrated as yesterday (0.5 FP projection), but you could make the argument he should be ranked much higher. The NL leader in batting average (.347) will retain his premium lineup spot for a Dodgers’ offense that represents the highest run-scoring projection while enjoying the hitter-friendly atmosphere of Coors Field. My approach to Kemp on DRAFT is pretty simple, as I’ll swap projections with his teammate Joc Pederson. Joc seems overrated at 11.4 fantasy points, so the switch seems to work out from both perspectives. Either way, I have Matt Kemp ranked as a top three overall hitter on this slate – alongside Arenado, Bellinger, and J-Turner.

 

 

Jake Arrieta – P – Philadelphia (DRAFT Projections: 9.3)

 

While reading the pitcher rankings section below, you’ll probably notice several underrated hurlers relative to their DRAFT expectation. The list includes Lester, Snell, Clevinger, and Hellickson - but Arrieta is the biggest upgrade within that. The Phillies pitcher has looked much better lately, bouncing back from a mediocre first month with his new team. Arrieta is coming off back-to-back strong outings against quality offenses like Atlanta and the LA Dodgers. He combined for 12 strikeouts through 13.2 innings with no earned runs and a pair of victories in those starts. We all know Arrieta can be a dominant pitcher in this league, and it appears he is rounding back into form. This 9.3 projection ranks him 16th among pitchers today, but I’m vaulting him to fourth or fifth overall.

 

 

Jose Ramirez – IF – Cleveland (DRAFT Projections: 9.1)

 

The Indians are in a pretty good spot today, as Ramirez, Lindor, Encarnacion, and Brantley all have solid career numbers against Minnesota RHP Kyle Gibson. The Twins’ starter has been up-and-down recently as well, and I’m thinking we’ll see more of the latter in this tough matchup vs Cleveland. I’m upgrading all four of those aforementioned Indians, while Ramirez (9.1) and Brantley (8.4) are the biggest movers.

 

 

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Tyler Skaggs – P – LA Angels (DRAFT Projections: 11.8)

 

Skaggs has shown flashes this season, but I’m not feeling confident about his current form after allowing eight earned runs through 10 innings over his past two starts. He’s facing a dangerous Texas lineup with plenty of homerun potential to spoil his fantasy line. Even if Skaggs had a great matchup, I probably wouldn’t rank him as the second-best pitcher of this slate – as his current DRAFT projection suggests. As it stands, I pushed Skaggs towards the bottom of the top ten.

 

 

Jake Lamb – IF – Arizona (DRAFT Projections: 11.7)

 

I’ve been writing DRAFT MLB Strategy columns this entire season, and hitters always seem to get a very generous (too much at times) boost at Chase Field. I understand Arizona has a hitter-friendly environment, but sometimes these projections go overboard. Jake Lamb is case in point today, I don’t mind his matchup against RHP Dan Straily, but there are so many better infielders to consider before him (Arenado, J-Turner, Story, Taylor, J-Ramirez, LeMahieu, Lindor, J-Ramirez, T-Turner, Goldschmidt, etc). He’s outside the top ten with a more realistic projection of 9.5 FP in my opinion.

 

 

Justin Bour – IF – Miami (DRAFT Projections: 10.5)

Derek Dietrich – OF – Miami (DRAFT Projections: 9.8)

 

These two serve as further examples of the Chase Field hitter overcompensation rule. Like the previous write-up of Lamb, I don’t mind these players (especially Bour), but they are probably both overrated by a full fantasy point in the grand scheme of things. There’s upside against Arizona RHP Matt Koch, but I’m leaning towards other hitters with lower projections before snagging either of these guys.

 

 

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher rankings. As mentioned earlier, there are several movers and shakers among the pitchers today. I’ve upgraded Lester (vs a Mets team that is bad vs LHP), Snell, Clevinger, and Arrieta while downgrading Skaggs, Castillo, and Ross to deeper leagues only. This is how it all shakes out:

 

  1. Charlie Morton – Tier 1
  2. Jon Lester – Tier 2
  3. Blake Snell – Tier 2
  4. Jake Arrieta – Tier 2
  5. Mike Clevinger – Tier 2
  6. Michael Wacha – Tier 3
  7. Tyson Ross – Tier 3
  8. Luis Castillo – Tier 3
  9. Brent Suter – Tier 4
  10. Jeremy Hellickson – Tier 4
  11. Tyler Skaggs – Tier 4

 

 

Weather risk. There’s only one game to watch from a weather perspective, but it’s a pretty significant one between the Yankees and Orioles. If the forecast doesn’t clear up much before your draft, you may want to slightly downgrade Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton with this added risk.

Spencer Limbach

Spencer Limbach is a multi-sport daily fantasy specialist for NBC Sports Edge. He can be found on twitter @Spencer_JL.