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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Thursday

by Spencer Limbach
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last 2-5 minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Mike Trout with your first pick, nobody else in your league can have him.

 

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

 

 

Editor's Note: Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link

 

 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Alex Bregman – IF – Houston (DRAFT Projection: 8.9)

 

Alex Bregman is the hottest hitter on the planet right now, collecting nine hits, five doubles, and three homers over his past three games. There’s a chance he’ll keep that going against Ryne Stanek and the Tampa bullpen. As you’ll find throughout this article, there are some overrated infielders on the board today. Bregman should supplant those options with a newly-formed 9.9 FP projection.

 

 

Odubel Herrera – OF – Philadelphia (DRAFT Projection: 8.4)

 

It seems that Herrera is chronically underrated on DRAFT. He’s buried in the player pool yet again despite a friendly home matchup against Washington RHP Tanner Roark and his .351 wOBA vs left-handed bats. Making matters even better, Roark has been struggling lately after allowing 13 earned runs through 14.1 innings over his previous three starts. Herrera is a candidate to rack up multiple hits and runs with some power upside to boot. I’m raising his projection level to the 9.6 FP range.

 

 

Mike Leake – P – Seattle (DRAFT Projection: 8.4)

 

If you take away one bad start vs Boston on June 17, Mike Leake has been rock-solid by allowing two or less earned runs in his other six recent starts. He even got revenge on the mighty Red Sox offense by tossing eight scoreless innings (3 hits) in Fenway Park last Saturday. Now he’ll face a Baltimore offense that ranks 28th in wOBA, 29th in wRC+, and seventh in strikeout rate (23.8%). As a result, I’m elevated Leake to the sixth or seventh best pitcher of the day.

 

 

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Clayton Kershaw – P – LA Dodgers (DRAFT Projection: 12.9)

 

This isn’t an indictment of Kershaw’s overall talent. However, we aren’t exactly sure how many innings he’ll pitch tonight. He decided to skip a rehab start while tossing three innings at NYM on Saturday instead. Supposedly, Kershaw threw in the bullpen after the game to try and extend his pitch count. Reports are circulating that the Dodgers’ ace will target somewhere in the neighborhood of five innings vs the Cubs tonight, which would severely limit his upside for fantasy purposes. There’s a decent chance we’ll see less than that too, as LAD will likely baby him following the most recent injury stint … Put it all together and Kershaw deserves a firm downgrade in the pitcher rankings today. I have him listed as the fifth best hurler going tonight, and my general strategy is to let someone else take him earlier than deserved.

 

 

Khris Davis – IF – Oakland (DRAFT Projection: 10.0)

 

I don’t mind Khris Davis while recognizing his power-upside on any given day. However, this double-digit projection may be too generous. After all, he’s facing a solid pitcher in Detroit RHP Michael Fulmer. I would expect this type of projection if Davis were stepping in against a Mike Fiers-like hurler, but not necessarily Fulmer. I’m downgrading him a full fantasy point while looking towards lesser projected infielders like Bregman, Goldschmidt, Altuve, etc instead.

 

 

Logan Morrison – IF – Minnesota (DRAFT Projection: 9.5)

Eduardo Escobar – IF – Minnesota (DRAFT Projection: 9.8)

 

I understand the potential against White Sox RHP Lucas Giolito, but neither of these Minnesota hitters excites me today. Logan Morrison has had a difficult time making contact all season (.187 average) let alone flexing the power-upside from a year ago … Meanwhile, Eduardo Escobar hasn’t been right since getting hit by a pitch (and missing a few games) last week. I would rather take a wait-and-see approach on these guys instead of aggressively pursuing them tonight.

 

 

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher rankings. I already mentioned the rationale behind Clayton Kershaw’s downgrade. As a result, Greinke, McCullers, Nola, and Gray (great spot to buy low on him) jump ahead of him. There’s plenty of parity among the top five pitchers, so I’m likely waiting for a hurler in most league formats.

 

  1. Zack Greinke – Tier 1
  2. Lance McCullers – Tier 1
  3. Aaron Nola – Tier 1
  4. Jon Gray – Tier 1
  5. Clayton Kershaw – Tier 1
  6. Jose Quintana – Tier 2
  7. Mike Leake – Tier 3
  8. Sean Manaea – Tier 3
  9. Junior Guerra – Tier 3
  10. Michael Fulmer – Tier 3
  11. Chris Stratton – Tier 4
  12. Trevor Richards – Tier 4

 

 

More underrated hitters. I’m looking towards Paul Goldschmidt (8.4), Jose Altuve (8.6), and George Springer (8.8) as three more hitters who should be upgraded by at least one full fantasy point.

Spencer Limbach

Spencer Limbach is a multi-sport daily fantasy specialist for NBC Sports Edge. He can be found on twitter @Spencer_JL.