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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Wednesday

by Spencer Limbach
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last 2-5 minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Mookie Betts with your first pick, nobody else in your league can have him.

 

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

 

 

Editor's Note: Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link

 

 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Sean Newcomb – P – Atlanta (DRAFT Projection: 10.0)

 

This Braves-Reds matchup is an early game, so Newcomb may not be available if you are reading this later in the today. However, if you are drafting in time, the Altanta lefty is an underrated commodity worth a look in deeper leagues. He’s facing an underwhelming Reds’ lineup that will throw plenty of left-handed hitters (and one pitcher) against him. Newcomb has proven his worth throughout the season, and this looks like another spot to expect some fantasy success.

 

 

Freddie Freeman – IF – Atlanta (DRAFT Projection: 9.1)

 

I’m shocked that Freeman is projected this low. The matchup looks great against Cincinnati RHP Luis Castillo, who holds a 5.70 ERA while allowing 18 homeruns on the season. The Reds’ bullpen doesn’t look much better, owning a 4.19 xFIP that ranks in the bottom ten of the major leagues. I’m treating Freeman as a top three infield option today (raising his projection to 10.2 FP), and you should too.

 

 

Giancarlo Stanton – IF – NY Yankees (DRAFT Projection: 0.4)

 

We’ve seen this from time to time on DRAFT, where the projection system thinks a player will be sitting. I don’t see much of a reason that will be the case tonight, as it’s not like the Yankees are playing a day game following a night contest. In fact, Stanton has been heating up lately, collecting nine hits, one homer, four RBI, and two runs over his past three games. His improved contact rate is inspiring as a nice complement to the massive power upside. Philadelphia RHP Zach Eflin doesn’t scare me away from the Yankees, as he’s due for regression any time now. I’m boosting Stanton to a projection around 10.0, which places him firmly in the top five among infielders today.

 

 

Manny Machado – IF – Baltimore (DRAFT Projection: 8.6)

 

There’s some weather risk in this game (more on that later), so make sure to keep an eye on that. Machado is vastly underrated with this 8.6 FP projection, probably deserving a boost closer to 9.6 FP in this matchup. He’s looking at a righty/lefty draw against mediocre Seattle southpaw Wade LeBlanc, who was just hammered for six earned runs through 4.2 innings in his most recent start at Boston. The hitter-friendly atmosphere in Baltimore could help Machado as well.

 

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Shin-Soo Choo – IF – Texas (DRAFT Projection: 10.3)

 

Texas checks in with the second highest run-scoring projection of the night. However, I’m not liking Shin-Soo Choo to be a significant part of that. He’s locked into a lefty/lefty matchup against San Diego southpaw Clayton Richard. It just so happens that Richard has been looking pretty good lately as well. The Padres’ lefty still holds a vulnerable .357 wOBA split vs right-handed bats, but he’s very efficient against those with the same handedness. That results in a substantial downtick for Choo, who should be closer to an 8.3 FP projection today.

 

 

Eric Thames – IF – Milwaukee (DRAFT Projection: 10.2)

 

Eric Thames is usually overrated on DRAFT, and today’s situation takes that to the extreme. In fact, he probably won’t even start against left-handed Kansas City pitcher Danny Duffy. That should be everything you need to know right there. Even if Thames does get the starting nod (not likely), the lefty/lefty draw against Duffy’s resurgence is enough to remove Thames from consideration through all formats.

 

 

Andrew Benintendi – OF – Boston (DRAFT Projection: 9.7)

 

How about we list three lefty/lefty matchups in a row? It appears that DRAFT doesn’t take these splits into consideration when formulating projections. Choo, Thames, and now Benintendi all deserve sizeable downgrades in these situations. Boston checks in with the highest run-scoring projection, but Benintendi is locked into a tough lefty/lefty matchup against Andrew Heaney. The Angels’ pitcher has a susceptible .348 wOBA and 20.2% HR/FB split for righties to jump on, but he’s pretty sharp against left-handed bats. I’m downgrading Benintendi closer to 8.5 FP.

 

 

Zack Wheeler – P – NY Mets (DRAFT Projection: 11.0)

 

It seems that I’m writing up Zack Wheeler as overrated every time his spot comes up in the rotation. No offense, Zack, the people at DRAFT are just expecting too much out of you. There’s some precipitation risk in New York tonight, which is enough to downgrade Wheeler in and of itself. Even if the weather wasn’t a factor, I’m not believing in the Mets’ righty as a top five pitching option tonight. He has been mediocre at best this season, holding a 4.85 ERA while facing a capable Pirates’ offense.

 

 

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher rankings. Bumgarner showed flashes of his dominant-self while tossing eight scoreless innings (8 K’s) in his most recent start. He’s the best pitcher on the board today, getting some help from the pitcher-friendly environment of AT&T Park … This position is pretty deep today, as you could conceivably wait for guys like Newcomb (afternoon), Suter (afternoon), Wood, or Gibson in larger sized leagues.

 

  1. Madison Bumgarner – Tier 1
  2. Robbie Ray – Tier 2
  3. Dallas Keuchel – Tier 2
  4. Alex Wood – Tier 2
  5. Sean Newcomb – Tier 2
  6. Kyle Gibson – Tier 2
  7. Brent Suter – Tier 2
  8. Rick Porcello – Tier 3
  9. Zack Wheeler – Tier 3
  10. Jack Flaherty – Tier 3

 

 

Weather alerts. Weather situations can come and go throughout the day, and keep in mind that this article was written early on Wednesday morning. It appears that the Seattle-Baltimore and Pittsburgh-NY Mets games are of concern with 60% or more precipitation risk during the game. You’ll want to pay attention to those spots as we move closer to first pitch.

Spencer Limbach

Spencer Limbach is a multi-sport daily fantasy specialist for NBC Sports Edge. He can be found on twitter @Spencer_JL.