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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Wednesday

by Spencer Limbach
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT, it’s an innovative DFS game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last 2-5 minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Mike Trout with your first pick, nobody else in your league can have him.

 

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

 

 

Editor's Note: Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link

 

 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

Danny Duffy – P – Kansas City (DRAFT Projection: 10.9)

 

DRAFT has Duffy ranked fifth among starting pitchers today, and I believe he should be upgraded to the second or third spot. Make no mistake about it, the Royals’ ace is a top tier pitching commodity within today’s somewhat uninspiring pitcher pool. Duffy wasn’t very “ace-like” to begin the season, but he has resumed that dominant form by allowing just one earned run over his past three starts (20 innings, 21 strikeouts). The matchup against Detroit looks better than average, and Duffy will have the benefit of starting in the pitcher-friendly environment of his home ballpark.

 

 

Jean Segura – IF – Seattle (DRAFT Projection: 8.4)

 

Segura is buried pretty deep among the infield pre-draft rankings. He may be worth uncovering in deeper leagues, looking at a confident righty/lefty matchup against San Francisco southpaw Derek Holland – who holds a vulnerable .383 wOBA against right-handed bats. That’s one of the worst splits of any pitcher in action today, and you’d be wise to take advantage.

 

 

Josh Reddick – OF – Houston (DRAFT Projection: 8.1)

 

Houston carries one of the top run-scoring projections of the night while playing in a 10 run over/under at Coors Field. Most of the Astros’ hitters have an appropriate boost in projection…except Reddick. He should see plenty of RBI situations with tremendous upside in this hitting utopia. I’m comfortable upgrading Reddick somewhere closer to 9.5 fantasy points, and he’s definitely somebody to keep an eye on for deeper leagues.

 

 

Bryce Harper – OF – Washington (DRAFT Projection: 0.0)

 

You’ll want to monitor this situation if playing the afternoon slate. Harper missed yesterday’s game with a stomach bug, but he ended up pinch-hitting. That suggests he could be close to returning for today’s tilt with Milwaukee. If that’s the case, he’d deserve a double-digit projection instead of this goose egg with DRAFT expecting him to sit. It’s worth pointing out this potential for value, as most people will probably forget about Harper without him listed towards the top of the outfield rankings.

 

 

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

 

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Nathan Eovaldi – P – Tampa Bay (DRAFT Projection: 11.7)

 

If you are playing the early slate, you’ll notice that Nathan Eovaldi is ranked as one of the top pitchers. Let’s keep in mind that he’s facing the Yankees too. Eovaldi has been up-and-down since joining the Tampa rotation, but I’m not expecting much fantasy upside against this intimidating NYY lineup … It’s also worth mentioning that the Yankee superstar bats are underrated on the opposite side of Eovaldi’s high prospects: Judge has an 8.4 FP projection while Stanton is at 7.6 FP – maybe that would fly against Clayton Kershaw, but not so much Mr. Eovaldi.

 

Update: Just kidding! Eovaldi has actually been traded to the Red Sox this morning. Obviously we'll need to avoid him for fantasy purposes while upgrading the NYY hitters against a spot-starter. 

 


Kris Bryant – IF – Chicago Cubs (DRAFT Projection: 10.0)

Javier Baez – IF – Chicago Cubs (DRAFT Projection: 9.5)

 

Bryant and Baez are both dealing with injuries, and we aren’t sure if either of them will crack the lineup this afternoon. That alone should have you cautious when looking towards infielders in this projection range. Even if Bryant and/or Baez ends up playing, the matchup isn’t very good against Arizona LHP Robbie Ray with the wind slightly blowing in at Wrigley Field.

 

Update: Baez and Bryant are both out of the lineup this afternoon. 

 

 

Willie Calhoun – OF – Texas (DRAFT Projection: 10.3)

 

I’ll keep saying it until DRAFT changes the projection: Calhoun doesn’t deserve to be ranked alongside elite outfielders! I understand that Texas will enjoy a nice, hitter-friendly environment in a good matchup vs Oakland RHP Edwin Jackson. However, even though Calhoun hit a homer last night, he is only 3-18 since joining the big league club. You could do better when looking through elite outfielders with double-digit projections. I would reduce Calhoun to 9.3 FP for a more accurate ranking.

 

 

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Pitcher rankings. As noted above, Duffy gets the biggest boost while Eovaldi has dramatically fallen out of consideration for those playing the early slate … Trevor Bauer is in the top-tier by himself, earning a look at an early overall selection due to a lack of opportunity cost at the position. Otherwise, Duffy, Price, and Skaggs are all confident backup plans. Getting into the next tier of Morton, Ray, Lester, Flaherty, and Arrieta is more on the risk/reward side of things. I would recommend trying to snag one of the top four pitchers.

 

  1. Trevor Bauer – Tier 1
  2. Danny Duffy – Tier 2
  3. David Price – Tier 2
  4. Tyler Skaggs – Tier 2
  5. Charlie Morton – Tier 2
  6. Robbie Ray – Tier 3
  7. Jon Lester – Tier 3
  8. Jack Flaherty – Tier 3
  9. Jake Arrieta – Tier 3
  10. Nathan Eovaldi – Tier 4
  11. Clayton Richard – Tier 4
  12. Freddy Peralta – Tier 4

 

 

More underrated hitters. I noted Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton with 8.4 and 7.6 FP projections respectively. That bears repeating if you are playing the early slate. Here are some other hitters who could inspire some value in later rounds of deeper leagues:

 

Matt Chapman – IF – Oakland (DRAFT Projection: 9.2)

 

Mitch Haniger – OF – Seattle (DRAFT Projection: 8.8)

 

Shohei Ohtani – IF – LA Angels (DRAFT Projection: 8.5) *if playing*

Spencer Limbach

Spencer Limbach is a multi-sport daily fantasy specialist for NBC Sports Edge. He can be found on twitter @Spencer_JL.