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DRAFT MLB Strategy: Wednesday

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

Building a team on DRAFT’s DFS platform is an excellent way to make the action even more exciting than just following your favorite team. If you aren’t familiar with DRAFT’s DFS platform, it’s an innovative daily fantasy game with a live draft feature -- instead of building within a salary cap, you're participating in snake drafts that typically last under five minutes. On top of that, anyone you draft is yours alone -- if you take Nolan Arenado with your first pick, nobody else in your league can roster him.

 

You can find more information at Draft.com or quickly join a contest from anywhere after downloading the app!

 

The scoring system is similar to FanDuel with a few small exceptions. For one, starting pitchers aren’t quite as valuable relative to their hitting counterparts. You can read a detailed explanation of these along with other DRAFT MLB Strategy Tips in our preview article.

 

Best of luck and happy drafting!

 

Editor’s Note: Fantasy Baseball season is here! Compete in a live fantasy baseball snake draft right now! Drafts take as little as 2 minutes to complete and last just one night. For a limited time, DRAFT is giving Rotoworld readers a FREE entry into a real money draft and a Money-Back Guarantee up to $100! Here's the link. 

 

UNDERRATED PLAYERS

These players have a great chance to outperform their DRAFT projection.

 

German Marquez – SP – Colorado (DRAFT Projection: 12.2 FP)

 

Marquez isn’t a forgotten man, but neither DRAFT nor third party projection tools fully appreciate the improvements he’s made this year. Four of his last five starts have included double-digit strikeouts. The Phillies are the third most strikeout prone offense. I’m forecasting 6.2 innings, 8.6 strikeouts, 2.9 runs, and forty percent of a win (13.95 FP). Even if you’re not as enthusiastic about his projection, I’d still select him second. The Rockies are playing for their lives. The Indians (Shane Bieber) and Red Sox (David Price) are tuning up for the postseason.

 

Javier Baez – INF – Chicago (DRAFT Projection: Unlisted)

Anthony Rizzo – INF – Chicago (DRAFT Projection: 7.9 FP)

 

I’m not sure why DRAFT dislikes Rizzo today. Other systems and my own back-of-the-envelope method rank him as the best actual infielder (J.D. Martinez is the top INF-eligible player). Rizzo is nowhere near the DRAFT top 20. For that reason, try sleeping on him until the third to fifth rounds – even in 10 team formats.

 

Baez isn’t even selected as of this moment. Since DRAFT can update their slates at any time, he may become eligible later. He’s an easy top five infielder. The Cubs face Ivan Nova.

 

Mike Trout – OF – Los Angeles (DRAFT Projection 10.3 FP)

 

Trout is the top hitter available. The first overall pick decision should be between Trout, Martinez, and deGrom. DRAFT disagrees, ranking Trout as the fourth outfielder. He’s set to face not-good left-hander Yohander Mendez. Is further analysis required? No, it’s not.

 

Other bargain opportunities include Justin Upton and Kyle Schwarber.

 

OVERRATED PLAYERS

These players may not live up to their DRAFT projection.

 

Astros – INF/OF – Houston (DRAFT Projection: Mostly High)

 

The Astros clinched the AL West yesterday which means tonight is a hangover game. Expect most of their regulars to find a seat on the bench. That probably means no Alex Bregman, no Jose Altuve, no George Springer, and probably not so much as a Tyler White or Yuli Gurriel.

 

OVERALL STRATEGY

 

Heavy Weather. Although the weather threats aren’t as serious as yesterday, Fenway Park, Nationals Park, and CitiField carry some risk today. One option is to simply draft lineups after 4:00pm. That removes two of the three games from the slate. All three games will probably play, possibly with delays. That means you won’t get a chance to sub anybody you select.

 

Pitcher Talk. deGrom is a legitimate first overall pick. Projection systems – both DRAFT and third party tools I reference – are edgy about Marquez tonight. I think there’s more cause for concern about Bieber even though Marquez is the one pitching at Coors Field. I honestly don’t know much about Kyle McGowin. He’s a 26-year-old rookie righty with a 91 mph fastball and extreme swinging strike rates in the upper minors. He probably won’t throw more than four innings – I just wanted an excuse to mention him.

 

  1. Jacob deGrom – Tier 1
  2. German Marquez – Tier 2
  3. Shane Bieber – Tier 2
  4. Andrew Heaney  – Tier 2
  5. David Price – Tier 2
  6. Jake Odorizzi – Tier 2
  7. Masahiro Tanaka – Tier 2
  8. Sean Newcomb – Tier 3
  9. Zack Greinke – Tier 3
  10. Jose Quintana– Tier 3
  11. Cody Reed – Tier 3
  12. Matt Boyd – Tier 3
  13. Kyle McGowin – Tier 4
Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on Rotoworld, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.