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FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Brad Johnson
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

We have a 10 game evening contest. The game in Pittsburgh has a 50 percent chance for storms. Make sure you check the weather report closer to game time.

 

Homer prone righty Eddie Butler is set to combat a heavily left-handed Mariners lineup at Coors Field. Butler has made 13 starts, lasting 65.1 innings (five innings per start). He has a 4.82 ERA, 4.96 K/9, and 4.96 BB/9. Butler certainly looks like a good pitcher, but he hasn’t posted strong results at any level since 2013. He lacks strikeout stuff, control, and his home park is death to mediocre pitchers.

 

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DIAMONDS IN THE ROUGH


Anthony Rendon – 2B – WAS (FanDuel Price: $2,900)

 

Rendon had a big game yesterday. He went 3-for-4 with a double and a home run. It was his first valuable performance since returning from the disabled list on July 25. Rendon is much too talented for this price tag. Now that he’s shown a pulse, there’s no reason to pass on this value. He’s a $4,000 second baseman in the bargain bin. Do note, Zack Godley isn’t going to roll over for Rendon. Godley is actually one of my favorite bargain pitcher options tonight.

 

Kris Bryant – 3B – CHC  (FanDuel Price: $3,100)

 

Bryant comes with a massive caveat tonight. He left yesterday’s game after sustaining a head injury. He passed the concussion protocol but reportedly was a little dizzy after the game. Even if he’s ready to go, the Cubs may take a cautious approach.

 

If he is starting, then he becomes an excellent target. His .246/.354/.436 line is commensurate with his cost, but most would agree he has much more upside. His .191 ISO is the lowest rate he’s posted as a professional. His next lowest mark was a .324 ISO last season at Triple-A. He’ll eventually find his 50 home run power.

 

Evan Longoria – 3B – TBR (FanDuel Price: $2,900)

 

Longoria is a classic platoon matchup. The Rays are visiting the White Sox at power friendly U.S. Cellular Field. Longoria will see southpaw Jose Quintana. While Quintana doesn’t have noteworthy platoon splits, Longoria does. He’s a .316/.411/.468 hitter against lefties this season. He’s performed similarly throughout his career. The Rays offense as a whole is strong against left-handers.

 

Also Consider: Travis d’Arnaud –  C – NYM … Dee Gordon – 2B – MIA … Adam Jones – OF – BAL

 

VIABLE PUNTS


Jesus Montero – C – SEA (FanDuel Price: $2,300)

 

Montero is widely viewed as an epic prospect bust. The 25-year-old may be turning his career around after hitting .346/.388/.551 in 410 Triple-A plate appearances. His success has carried over to his first 21 plate appearances in the majors. Montero still flashes a high whiff rate, but he counteracts it with an aggressive approach. He was held out yesterday after colliding with Eddie Rosario during Saturday’s game. He later entered to pop a pinch hit double. He appears to be ready for a start at Coors Field. There’s no designated hitter today so he has to start at first base to play.

 

Jake Lamb – 3B – ARI (FanDuel Price: $2,500)

 

Doug Fister is having an uncharacteristically bad season. His 4.73 K/9 and 2.03 BB/9 look like vintage Fister. His velocity is down to 86 mph. More importantly, his ground ball rate has plummeted to a league average 41.5 percent. The result is a guy with a luck neutral 4.39 ERA. Don’t expect him to recapture his previous form – his stuff is quantifiably worse than in past seasons.

 

On the surface, Fister has allowed big reverse platoon splits this season. It’s all the product of BABIP. Lefties have just 3.69 K/9 against him. Lamb has modest platoon splits. He’s a solid hitter who reminds me of a left-handed Jonathan Lucroy with more strikeouts. You’re probably hoping for multiple doubles rather than a home run.

 

Christian Yelich – OF – MIA (FanDuel Price: $2,700)

 

Yelich is an extreme ground ball hitter so it’s a good thing he’s up against a fly ball hurler. Bartolo Colon has been spanked in two of his last three starts. He has six losses in his last seven starts. The Marlins lineup isn’t particularly potent, but they’re good enough to score runs against Colon. Yelich’s season line is unimpressive. He’s hitting a more typical .292/.373/.406 since June 1. Colon won’t give up many walks, but Yelich is a good bet for at least one hit.

 

Also Consider: Justin Bour – 1B – MIA … Scooter Gennett – 2B – MIL … Brandon Guyer – OF – TBR

 

TOURNAMENT GAMBLES


Curt Casali – C – TBR (FanDuel Price: $2,600)

 

I’m not a fan of playing the hot hand, but I know some of you enjoy streaks. Casali recently had two huge games against the Tigers. On July 27 and 28, he went 3-for-4 with two home runs, two runs, and three RBI. That’s two games with identically massive production. Since then, he’s 0-for-12. Casalli has a high 32.8 percent strikeout rate. He’s flashed the power throughout his minor league career.

 

To me, he looks like a .210/.280/.380 hitter. That can work at catcher when you pick the right day. In a tiny sample, he’s hit .231/.333/.692 against southpaws with a 20 percent strikeout rate. He’s opposed by Quintana.

 

Brad Miller – SS – SEA (FanDuel Price: $3,000)

 

One downside to the Coors games is that you have to pay extra for the players involved. Ideally, a low average hitter like Miller would cost less than $3,000. Miller offers 10 to 15 home run pop, some speed on the bases, and a patient plate approach. Given that he’s up against Butler, he should at least draw a walk. He has two home run upside as a shortstop.

 

Mark Trumbo – OF – SEA (FanDuel Price: $2,300)

 

Trumbo has split his time between first base, right field, and designated hitter in recent weeks. It’s a National League game tonight so the DH slot is out of the question. Trumbo’s power output this season is extremely disappointing. He has a .094 ISO since joining the Mariners. Perhaps a return to one of his old NL West stomping grounds will aid his production. Trumbo is a low average, low OBP hitter, but he could still send two over the wall tonight.

 

Also Consider: Jed Lowrie – SS – HOU … Jayson Werth – OF – WAS … Logan Morrison – 1B – SEA

 

Brad Johnson

You can read more from Brad Johnson on NBC Sports Edge, FanGraphs, and RotoFanatic. Find him on Patreon and Twitter @BaseballATeam.