It's a particularly busy Monday in the NBA with 10 games on the docket, providing a wealth of value plays in FanDuel. Tonight's over/unders range from a low of 186 (Jazz vs. Spurs) to a high of 211 (Pelicans vs. Blazers), with plenty of good matchups and a handful of potential blowouts. Let's dive right in.
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Otto Porter ($6,000) is at the high end of the 'value' spectrum, but he should be worth the price tonight. He's posted a minimum of 22.4 FanDuel points in his past six games, and with Bradley Beal out the past two games that number has leapt to 36.1. He faces a Grizzlies' defense that isn't what it once was -- they're allowing 104.7 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league.
Will Barton ($5,900) has a very stubborn price-point, which refuses to creep north of $6,000 despite his consistently excellent play. There are a few things that make this a particularly favorable night for Barton. First, Emmanuel Mudiay is out and Jameer Nelson is starting at PG, so there should be more wiggle-room in the backcourt rotation. Second, he gets a nice matchup vs. a Rockets team that allows 106.8 points per game and gives up the fifth-most points to opposing benches (36.6 ppg). It would be a big letdown if he doesn't exceed this valuation.
Ersan Ilyasova ($5,000) is heating up, averaging 31.8 FanDuel points over the past four games. The caveat here is that he's facing Blake Griffin and the Clippers tonight, which is a brutal matchup that could lead to early foul trouble for Ghostface. The risk vs. reward ratio is enough to scare me away in smaller leagues, but I'll roll the dice in a few tournaments tonight.
A matchup with the short-handed 76ers bodes well for Joakim Noah ($5,000), who should feast against Philly's second unit. He's returned a minimum of 23 FD points in seven straight games vs. a variety of opponents, from the Spurs to the Pelicans, a level of matchup-imperviousness that cements him as a value play despite his relatively low ceiling.
The improbable run of Raymond Felton ($4,900) continues -- he's coming off a triple-double that netted nearly 40 FD points. Deron Williams was out for that game, of course, and J.J. Barea (ankle) has returned to action, but Felton has played 30+ minutes in six straight games and the streak should continue vs. Phoenix tonight. With a 20-FD-point floor, he's a worthy gamble.
The Suns are playing a back-to-back set so Tyson Chandler isn't likely to log more than the 23 minutes he saw on Sunday, which props up the DFS window for Alex Len ($4,800) tonight. It's unclear if Len will start again, however, so keep a close eye on Rotoworld's player news blurbs for a lineup update. The Mavericks have been middle-of-the-pack vs. centers over the past few weeks, and Len has a minimum of 26 FD points in five straight games.
Elsewhere in Phoenix, Jon Leuer ($4,600) has a rock-solid floor with 23+ FD points in five straight and Dirk Nowitzki isn't exactly a lockdown defender. With Markieff Morris out of the rotation entirely, there's no reason to think Leuer won't return 5x value at this price-point.
Jameer Nelson ($4,200) will be in a lot of lineups tonight, and with good reason. The veteran dropped 20 points, six rebounds, seven assists and two steals in 38 minutes on Friday, and he gets another huge workload as the starting PG with Emmanuel Mudiay (ankle) on the sidelines. The only reason to be nervous is Patrick Beverley, whose individual defense has made the Rockets a slightly below-average matchup for opposing PGs over the past two weeks (even though Houston overall has been a delectable target during that stretch). Regardless, Jameer will have the ball in his hands enough to cruised past his price tonight.
Matt Barnes ($4,100) will be starting ahead of Zach Randolph for "a while," according to coach Dave Joerger. He played 37 minutes as a starter on Sunday and (as I wrote in a blurb last night), he's averaging 10.7 points, 2.7 threes, 10.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.7 blocks and 1.0 steals over the past three games.
Allen Crabbe ($4,000) has earned the trust of coach Terry Stotts and he's leading all of Portland's reserves in minutes per game (24.2) and points (10.2 ppg). Those numbers have been higher in recent weeks and he's averaging a solid 24.4 FD points in his past two outings. All of that is nice, but the clincher is that he's facing a Pelicans' defense which gives up the most points in the NBA (108.4), including the most points-allowed to opposing benches (38.1). There's going to be a feast in Portland tonight, and Crabbe will be served.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($3,900) is playing huge minutes with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson out of commission. In the past three games he's averaging 14.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.0 steals in 36.7 minutes per game. The Magic aren't a worrisome matchup for Bojan, who is a solid play simply by virtue of his copious playing time.
Ramon Sessions ($4,000) is averaging 28 minutes in two games without Bradley Beal, during which span he's scored 15.5 points with 4.0 assists. Sessions, Gary Neal ($3,800) and Garrett Temple ($3,600) are all intriguing punt plays vs. the struggling Grizzlies tonight, but they come with no guarantees.
Quick Hits: Jahlil Okafor ($6,300) is too pricy to be listed above, but he should have a big night tonight. Nerlens Noel (eye) is out and he's facing a Bulls team that gives up the sixth-most DFS value to opposing centers...Wes Matthews ($5,600) has played well lately and he gets a favorable matchup vs. the Suns...Alec Burks ($5,300) has a shiny new role as Utah's starting PG, but I can't recommend him vs. the Spurs' elite defense...Jerami Grant ($4,900) is a likely starter in Nerlens Noel's absence tonight. In 18 starts this season, the 21-year-old has averaged 10.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.0 blocks and only 1.0 turnovers. That adds up to 22.7 FanDuel points, which is good but not great...Luis Scola ($4,300) should be a popular punt play after posting 22 points, five boards and two steals vs. Philly on Sunday. He'll have plenty of motivation vs. the Pacers tonight but I'm tempering expectations -- he went scoreless vs. Indy on opening night...Nikola Jokic ($4,100) dropped 32 FD points on Friday but he's been too inconsistent to love him vs. Dwight Howard and Houston tonight...Andrew Nicholson ($4,000) could find himself in the starting lineup tonight. That's no guarantee of value even if he does start, but he's worth keeping an eye on...Jared Dudley ($3,800) has a low ceiling but he's been at 23 FD points in both games without Beal...Courtney Lee ($3,700) played 38 minutes as a starter on Sunday, which is reason enough to give him a look at this rock-bottom price.