This Monday's slate features nine games and a wealth of 'bargain bin' options. Here are tonight's contests listed in descending order by over/under.
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Jared Sullinger ($5,900) has slipped lately and posted a pair of duds last Saturday and Tuesday. He bounced back with 30 FDP on Wednesday, and another 26.1 FDP on Saturday, and should be rested and ready for Monday's game vs. the Wolves. Boston will need their frontcourt to step up vs. Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng, and Sullinger's role could expand if Amir Johnson's plantar fasciitis keeps him on the sidelines. Johnson is questionable (although Brad Stevens seems optimistic) so keep a close eye on the injury report.
In cash games, it's hard to overlook the ultra-steady production of Jae Crowder ($5,600). The Celtics' thieving small forward hasn't dipped below 21.6 FanDuel Points (FDP) in December, giving him a poured-concrete floor. He has only two games above the 30 FDP mark this month, however, and the Wolves aren't particularly lenient vs. small forwards, so there's minimal upside as a tournament play. I could make a similar argument for Kent Bazemore ($5,500), whose upside has been capped by Thabo Sefolosha, except that Bazemore draws a rough matchup vs. Al-Farouq Aminu.
Arron Afflalo ($5,200) is running hot over his past three games, averaging 31.8 FDP during that stretch, and he faces a Magic defense that let Kyle Korver hit a season-high six 3-pointers on Sunday due to repeated defensive lapses. The Knicks' game has the lowest over/under of the night at 196.5 but it's likely to be a close game, ensuring that Afflalo sees solid minutes as the team's second option offensively.
A few reasons to be optimistic about Jeremy Lin ($5,200) on Monday: he should have a bit of extra adrenaline playing on the road in Houston; the Rockets are relatively lenient vs. opposing SGs; the Rockets give up the 10th-most points to opposing benches; and finally, Lin has played well lately with at least 26 FDP in four of his past five games. Yes, his 48 FDP eruption came as a starter in Nic Batum's absence, but he's getting steady minutes with a high usage rate, and this game's over/under of 208.5 lends itself to solid production.
Omri Casspi ($5,000) played well in Toronto on Sunday with 15 points and 11 rebounds, and he faces a Wizards team that has been the most lenient to both SGs and SFs this season. With Otto Porter (thigh) very iffy, and likely limited if he does play, the matchup tilts even more in Casspi's favor -- he could torch Kelly Oubre if the rookie earns another start. Casspi has a nice floor regardless of Porter's availability, making him a fine option at this price-point.
Ahh, Gorgui Dieng ($4,900). An unfortunate role as a strict backup-C spoiled his early-season value, but his potential was never out of sight and lately it's been on full display. In his past three games (including one start), Dieng has averaged 32.9 FDP and he's logged 36 minutes in two of those contests. Boston's frontcourt will be overmatched, size-wise, and Dieng should easily exceed this low-end valuation. He's one of the premier value-plays tonight, particularly among big men.
Dennis Schroder ($4,900) cooled off on Sunday with only three points, one rebound, three assists, one block and four turnovers in 20 minutes vs. the Magic. That ended a streak of three games with a minimum of 32.5 FDP. His hot stretch was partly attributable to Jeff Teague's ankle injury, which may be encouraging Mike Budenholzer to limit his minutes. The best reason to target Schroder tonight is that he draws what should be a delectable matchup vs. the Blazers' gutted second unit.
Patrick Beverley ($4,200) is built for cash games. Prior to a rough night vs. Chris Paul on Saturday, he was between 17.5-27.2 FDP for 12 consecutive games. There's no reason he can't hover in the low-20s vs. the Hornets tonight, which is a fine cost-to-production ratio for 50/50 and H2H games.
Bobby Portis ($3,900) blew up for 20 points, 11 rebounds, one assist and two steals in just 23 minutes on Saturday, and he'd be a no-brainer play if we knew he'd get substantial minutes. Fred Hoiberg said recently that the Bulls "have to find minutes for Bobby," but how many minutes is an open question with Pau Gasol returning from a rest day on Monday. Given the risk vs. reward here, Portis is a more appealing play in tournaments.
Gerald Henderson ($3,500) should ascend to the Blazers' starting lineup on Monday with C.J. McCollum (ankle) unavailable, making him an appealing bottom-of-the-barrel DFS option. In the past five games that Henderson has seen more than 15 minutes, he's averaged 13.8 FDP in just 19.0 minutes per game. That's a solid FDP-to-minute ratio, and the short-handed Blazers will need him to be aggressive vs. the Hawks tonight, all of which bodes well for Henderson as a punt play.
Allen Crabbe ($3,800) will likely stick with the second unit for continuity's sake tonight, but he's slated for a big role with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum both out. He's notched a minimum of 16 FDP in all but one of his past 10 games, and that's with Portland's starting backcourt intact. With his minutes due to swell, and more PG duties coming his way tonight, Crabbe is a promising play below the $4,000 threshold.
Staying on the Blazers theme...Tim Frazier ($3,500) is another fill-in worth considering, as he'll likely start at PG vs. a Hawks team that cedes the 8th-most FDP to opposing point guards. That said, I can't unreservedly plug a guy who's barely played this season. Of note: in three starts for Philly last year he averaged 7.7 points, 4.0 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 0.7 steals and 5.0 turnovers in 35.0 minutes. That works out to 19.9 FDP.
Quick Hits: I've been waiting for Terrence Jones ($4,900) and Nikola Mirotic ($4,800) to earn a role that could unleash their potential, but thus far it's not happening...Early-season surprise Evan Fournier ($4,700) showed some life on Sunday with 30.6 FDP in 35 minutes of action, but I'll need to see his minutes stay north of 30 per game to bite...I'm not recommending Channing Frye ($3,600), but he's exceeded his price-point over the past four games by averaging 19.7 FDP, and that includes a dud vs. the Blazers on Friday...Jon Leuer ($4,700) has faded a bit and Markieff Morris' return to the rotation does him no favors, so I'm avoiding Leuer vs. the Jazz tonight…And finally, Joakim Noah ($5,300) won't recapture his 37 FDP magic from Saturday, when he started with Pau Gasol resting. He's been very solid for the past few weeks and the matchup vs. Brooklyn is appealing, but I'm leering of gambling on Chicago's frontcourt rotation now that Bobby Portis is in the mix: Hoiberg said that he has "some decisions to make" regarding his rotation. I'm steering clear on a night with plenty of safe alternatives.