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FanDuel Bargain Bin: Monday

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: October 4, 2018, 4:04 pm ET

It's a busy nine-game slate in the NBA tonight, offering plenty of bargains below the $6,000 threshold on FanDuel. Let's begin with a quick look at the spread and over/under for tonight's games:

 

 

Over/Under

Spread

Wolves at Cavs

203.5

Cavs -13.5

Celtics at Wizards

212.5

Wizards -2.5

Heat at Bulls

190

Bulls -7.5

Magic at Grizzlies

190

Grizz -5.5

Rockets at Pelicans

214.5

Pelicans -5.0

Hawks at Nuggets

207.5

Hawks -4.5

Pistons at Jazz

194

Jazz -2.0

Hornets at Kings

212.5

Kings -6.5

Spurs at Warriors

211

Warriors -4.5

 

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$6,000-$5,001

 

Avery Bradley ($5,600) and the Celtics travel to D.C. to face the Wizards tonight, in a game with the second-highest over/under (212.5) and the second-lowest spread (-2.5). That should result in a pile of minutes and shot attempts for Bradley, who hasn't fallen below 20 FDP in seven straight games. He's averaging 30.4 FDP in his past four and should cruise past this valuation.

 

Jared Sullinger ($5,600) is as streaky as they come, which makes him an intriguing option as he piled up 33.7 and 46.9 FDP in his past two games. There are risks, namely that Sullinger rarely plays 30 minutes and that Washington has been very stingy vs. PFs over the past three weeks, but he's a high-upside gamble in tournaments tonight. If you want to load up on Celtics, you could do worse than plugging Marcus Smart ($5,200) into the PG slot tonight. Smart's poor percentages don't matter in FanDuel and he has enough versatility to eke out a 20-FDP game even if his shots aren't falling.

 

Trevor Ariza ($5,100) has been sub-par this season, averaging fewer points, 3-pointers, rebounds, assists and steals, despite playing just one fewer minute per game. He's streaking over the past two games however, averaging 24.0 points, 4.0 boards, 2.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.5 blocks, and should fare well vs. a Pelicans team that ranks in the top-10 for points and 3-pointers allowed to SFs. It doesn't hurt that this game features the night's gaudiest over/under at 214.5.

 

$5,000-$4,001

 

J.R. Smith ($5,000) loved life in his first game for coach Tyronn Lue, dropping 18 points, 11 rebounds, one assist and one steal in 39 minutes of action. He was averaging just 29.1 minutes in January but that number looks set to spike with Lue calling the shots, and it helps that Cleveland is trying to speed up the pace offensively. The Wolves have struggled defensively and their ability to check SGs has been no exception -- they're allowing a generous 22.0 points and 2.6 triples per game to SGs.

 

Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,300) has been terrific over his past three games, two of which were played without Rudy Gay (heel). He's averaging 30.4 FDP during that span, a terrific return at this price-point. WCS has all but demanded more playing time in George Karl's rotation, but the key is whether or not Gay will be active tonight. Keep a close eye on Rotoworld's player news blurbs and be ready to pounce on WCS if Gay is ruled out.

 

Norris Cole ($4,300) will get another start at SG tonight with Eric Gordon on the shelf, which bodes well for his DFS production. Over the past two games he's averaging 11.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 0.5 steals, with only 1.0 turnovers, which pans out to 25.6 FDP. There should be enough minutes and touches for Cole to exceed this valuation in an up-tempo home game vs. Houston.

 

Darrell Arthur ($4,300) would be a fine punt play if Kenneth Faried's groin injury sidelines him vs. the Hawks tonight. In 10 starts this year, he's averaging 12.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.7 blocks and only 1.5 turnovers. Faried went through shootaround and is a game-time decision, however, so this would be a true gamble if playing a lineup that locks at 7pm ET. He's less risky if you wait to determine Faried's status in a 'late-night' league that locks at 9pm ET.

 

We already know that Aaron Gordon ($4,300) will start at PF vs. the Grizzlies tonight, barring an unexpected change from coach Scott Skiles. Memphis presents a below-average matchup for PFs, and this game's 190 over/under is tied for lowest of the night, but Gordon's potential is tantalizing. Foul trouble limited him to 24 minutes on Friday but he should cruise to the 30-minute mark tonight, giving him enough opportunities to return 5-6x value.

 

$4,000-$3,500

 

Josh Smith ($3,900) is averaging 27.2 FDP in two games with Houston, and his 22.0 minutes per game could be on the rise after playing the entire fourth quarter on Sunday. The Pelicans are a dreadful matchup for PFs but Smoove might skate by with a decent performance as a reserve, limiting his exposure to Anthony Davis. It helps that this fast-paced game comes against an opponent that yields the sixth-most points to opposing benches.

 

It sounds like a joke, but Spencer Hawes ($3,800) is a viable option tonight. Charlotte is without their top two centers in Al Jefferson and Cody Zeller, which has left Hawes with 33.0 minutes over the past two games. He's turned that into 29.5 FDP and will need to step up again vs. a Kings team with red-hot DeMarcus Cousins in the middle. Hawes is an easy option if you're looking to punt the C spot.

 

 

Quick Hits: Tobias Harris ($6,000) has been solid lately with three 30-FDP games in his past four, but he draws a lousy matchup vs. the Grizzlies in a game tied for the evening's lowest over/under at 190...Ryan Anderson ($5,500) faces a Rockets team that gives up the seventh-most 3-pointers and has been woeful at defending PFs all season. He's hit or miss but is worth a look for the matchup alone...Dennis Schroder ($5,200) is coming off a big game on Saturday and has a knack for returning solid DFS value in limited minutes, but it's hard to trust a guy who has played 20 or fewer minutes in four of his past six games...Amir Johnson fell just shy of 30 FDP in his return on Sunday, playing only 20 minutes in an easy win vs. the 76ers. His minutes have been too sporadic to rely on him, however, especially with Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk both playing well...Shabazz Muhammad ($4,200) has seen his minutes spike lately and he's worth a long look if you need a cheap SF...Miami is finally getting some healthy bodies in the lineup so Tyler Johnson ($4,200) isn't very appealing...Boban Marjanovic ($3,600) would be an intriguing option if he starts in place of Tim Duncan (knee), though it's not an ideal matchup vs. the Warriors tonight...P.J. Hairston ($3,500) is coming off an out-of-the-blue double-double with 20 points and 10 boards, though he's been so uninspiring that it's hard to read much into that game.

Ryan Knaus
Despite residing in Portland, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for Rotoworld.com since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter.